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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, Jan. 19th
There were no recommended bets on Wednesday.
Record: 64-58, + 0.9 units, 0.8 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Wednesday, Jan. 19th
There are nine games scheduled for Thursday, but to kick things off, I’m going to focus on the two games that I have the most interest in.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Ottawa Senators (+ 250) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-300)
The Penguins are back in Pittsburgh following a six-game road trip. They'll play the Senators on Thursday before heading to Columbus to play the Blue Jackets on Friday. Tristan Jarry will start in goal for the Penguins. Anton Forsberg will get the start for the Senators. The Penguins are the healthiest they've been all season, and according to my model, they'll win this game approximately 75 percent of the time. Unfortunately, that converts to -300, and since that's exactly where the market is sitting, there's no value in laying the favorite.
Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 100) at Philadelphia Flyers (-120)
According to reports, Jakub Voracek will make his return to the Blue Jackets' lineup on Thursday, just in time to play against his old team, the Flyers. Elvis Merzlikins and Carter Hart will be the starting goaltenders. The Blue Jackets will be without defenders Adam Boqvist and Vladislav Gavrikov. The Flyers are missing Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes and Ryan Ellis. The Blue Jackets are a stronger team than the Flyers. which is why my model prices this game as a coin flip. There's not a lot separating Columbus and Philadelphia, but between the injuries, and the fact that the former has a better goal share, means that home ice is really the only edge that the Flyers have.
Dallas Stars (-220) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 190)
Jason Robertson will be a game-time decision for the Stars, but Alexander Radulov is questionable, as he hasn't completely cleared COVID protocol. Braden Holtby will start in goal for Dallas, while Aaron Dell will be between the pipes for the Sabres. Buffalo's lineup is somewhat depleted, but they have their top players, at least. Robertson will likely suit up for the Stars, but I already believe that's been accounted for by the market.
Washington Capitals (+ 160) at Boston Bruins (-180)
Washington was already missing T.J. Oshie, Connor Sheary and John Carlson, but now they're also going to be without Daniel Sprong and Dmitry Orlov. Losing Carlson and Orlov is a big blow to the Capitals' blue line, and the Bruins should be able to do some damage given that they will be able to get the matchups they want on home ice. However, the Capitals still have players that can put the puck in the net, even if they get outplayed, and that means something. Boston does have a bit of a rest advantage, though, and they should be hungry after losing to the Hurricanes 7-1 at home. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around -185.
Florida Panthers (-155) at Edmonton Oilers (+ 135)
It doesn’t make much sense that the Panthers are only listed at -155, as they were an even bigger favorite in Calgary (prior to the announcement that Spencer Knight would start in goal) on Tuesday. The Flames are one of the best teams in the Western Conference, while the Oilers, despite their potential, have morphed into a mediocre team that can’t seem to outscore their problems on defense. Both Mike Smith (injury) and Stuart Skinner (COVID) are on the shelf now, which means Mikko Koskinen is expected to get the start in goal. The Panthers will be hungry, as their 5-1 to the Flames was one of the worst defeats that the team has suffered all season. The Oilers are still without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who still has not resumed skating due to a lower-body injury, and the Panthers offense should be able to overwhelm the Oilers on a shift-by-shift basis. Sergei Bobrovsky should get the start in goal for the Panthers, but they do play the Canucks on Friday, so there’s a chance that Knight could get another start. If that’s the case, I don’t understand why they chose to start him in Calgary. It’s very possible that the team has plans to start Bobrovsky on back-to-back nights. The Panthers grade out as a top team in just about every meaningful category, while the Oilers, especially as of late, appear to be a below-average team. Add in Mikko Koskinen’s struggles, and the absence of Nugent-Hopkins, and what you’re left with is a team that will likely continue to struggle, at least in the short term. At -160 or better, the Panthers are a value bet, as my model estimates that they should be priced closer to -175.
Notes: Patric Hornqvist and Gustav Forsling are not expected to play.
Florida Panthers -155
Colorado Avalanche (-185) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 165)
The Avalanche shut out the Ducks last night in Anaheim, but the Kings are going to be a tougher test. Darcy Kuemper will start in goal, so the Avalanche do have a rested starter to rely on. They're still on the second half of a back-to-back, though, and the Kings have been playing well. According to my model, the Avalanche should be priced around -180.
Winnipeg Jets (+ 115) at Nashville Predators (-135)
Nikolaj Ehlers will not be in the Jets’ lineup when they take on the Predators in Nashville on Thursday after suffering a knee injury. The Jets hope that Paul Stastny will be able to suit up against the Predators, but Blake Wheeler is not expected to be back in the lineup. That leaves the Jets with two big holes up front, and several other players, including defender Brendan Dillon, are also on the shelf. Meanwhile, the Predators are coming off four losses in a row, but Juuse Saros is rested, and he will almost certainly start on Thursday. The Predators have a game against the Red Wings coming up on Saturday, but after that, they’re going to be off for two days, and they don’t have another set of back-to-back games in the foreseeable future. According to my model, the home team should be priced closer to -145, and therefore, I’m laying -135 or better on the Predators to win the game straight up. It’s only a half-size bet, though.
Nashville Predators -135 (half size)
Montreal Canadiens (+ 250) at Vegas Golden Knights (-300)
Mark Stone has been placed in COVID protocol and will not play Thursday, which is big news. The Golden Knights are already missing Alec Martinez and Max Pacioretty, so this is a big blow to a team that can't seem to stay healthy. The Canadiens are a glorified AHL team, though, and even though Tyler Toffoli is back in the lineup, they're still missing key players like Brendan Gallagher, Cole Caufield and starting goaltender Jake Allen. Vegas should be able to take care of business, and my model prices this game around -285 in their favor.
San Jose Sharks (-110) at Seattle Kraken (-110)
More details to come.
Florida Panthers -155
Nashville Predators -135 (half size)
Player Prop Bets for Sunday, Jan. 16th:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
Recap: Mikko Rantanen registered his fourth shot of the game with five seconds left to go in the third, cashing over 3.5 shots at + 120.
There are no recommended play prop bets currently.