NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 11/11

November 11, 2021 10:09 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Wednesday, Nov. 10th

The lone play prop bet was a winner, but other than that it was a quiet Wednesday.

Game Lines:

15-20, -8.40 units, -21.2 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -112

Player Props: 

66-57, + 0.05 units, 0.03 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -112

Market Report for Thursday, Nov. 11th

Thursday is a very busy day, with several teams either playing the first or the second game in a back-to-back, and there are at least a few games that bettors will want to approach with extra caution.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Florida Panthers (-120) at Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 100)

Pittsburgh could get a couple of defenders back, as Chad Ruhwedel and Marcus Pettersson are no longer in COVID protocol, but it doesn’t look like Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin will be cleared in time for Thursday’s game. However, Saturday is still an option, according to the team. In the meantime, though, the Penguins play host to the Florida Panthers, who are looking to get back on track after dropping two in a row. This is the third game in four days for the Panthers, but Sergei Bobrovsky should be back between the pipes on Thursday. However, I’m closer to taking the home dog than I am to laying the road favorite, but I don’t think the current line offers any betting value.

Los Angeles Kings (-115) at Ottawa Senators (-105)

The Kings are still in Canada, which means they’re still without Viktor Arvidsson and Gabriel Vilardi, but it hasn’t mattered yet, as the Kings have picked up wins in Toronto and Montreal so far on the trip. Playing shorthanded could catch up with the team, as Thursday’s game in Ottawa will be their third in four days, but the Senators have just returned home after playing four out of their last six games on the road. Ottawa only has one win in their last nine games, and now have eight players in COVID protocol. I backed the Kings at -110, but I still think there’s enough value at -115 to justify making a small wager.


Los Angeles Kings -115 (half size)

New York Islanders (-140) at New Jersey Devils (+ 120)

Dougie Hamilton has missed three games with an injury, but it did sound like he was nearing a return heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Panthers, and I would say that’s an encouraging sign for his status on Thursday against the Islanders. However, I don’t necessarily think that there’s any betting value in the current game line, and I’m not sure any news, or difference of opinion, will change that.

Player Props:

Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)

Hischier has been a top-line role just about all season long now, and he has seven points in 11 games. According to the Propagator, the under should be priced closer to -150, as there's a 60 percent chance that Hischier doesn't get a point on Thursday versus the Islanders.

Calgary Flames (-135) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 115)

Sportsbooks opened this game around -120 in favor of the Calgary Flames, but it has since been bet up to -135, and that makes me wonder if those moving the market overnight had thought this one through. Sure, the Flames are the superior team, but they’ve got a date with the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Friday, so it’s possible that Jacob Markstrom gets Thursday night off. In that case, Daniel Vladar would be the starting goaltender, and while I’m not opposed to betting on the backup goaltender, I don’t think there’s any reason to rush into laying the favorite or taking the dog.

Update: Markstrom is listed as the expected starter but I'm going to wait until the team confirms that he will indeed start the game, as my confidence in most reports that don't come directly from the team. A projected lineup from a team reporter does not constitute as news, in my opinion. There have been several instances where putting too much stock into what one pundit thinks has resulted could have resulted in getting the worst of the number.

Player Props:

Mike Hoffman Under 0.5 Points -135 (BetMGM)

According to the Propagator, the under should be priced closer to -200. So, regardless of whether Jacob Markstrom or Daniel Vladar plays goal for the Flames, betting on Hoffman not to get a point is a value play.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 120) at Boston Bruins (-140)

Edmonton did not look in Detroit on Tuesday, but they should put their best foot forward on Thursday in Boston against the Bruins, as it is the first game in a back-to-back. The Oilers play in Buffalo on Friday. This is a tough test for the Oilers, but it's going to be a challenge for the Bruins, too. Boston has great underlying numbers, but they regularly underperform expected goals, and Linus Ullmark hasn't impressed yet. Ullmark's save percentage is fine, but his underlying metrics suggest that the Bruins are being put at a disadvantage when he's in goal. According to my model, the Bruins price should fall around -145, but I'm not going to reach here. Unless the market does an about face, and starts to show the Oilers some love, I probably won't be taking a side in this game.

Washington Capitals (-140) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 120)

The Capitals are missing three top-six forwards and it shows. The team is playing good hockey, but without T.J. Oshie, Anthony Mantha and Nicklas Backstrom, the Capitals’ offense hasn’t been as effective. The Red Wings have already dealt the Capitals a loss, in Washington, nonetheless, and now they’ll attempt to do the same in Detroit. It won't be easy, though. The Red Wings are home underdog for a reason. Yes, they do have some jam in their game, but there's the Capitals should win this game more than 55 percent of the time, so there's no value in taking the dog at + 120.

San Jose Sharks (+ 160) at Winnipeg Jets (-180)

The Sharks are travelling through Canada without several key players due to COVID, but the Jets could be without Nikolaj Ehlers and Paul Stastny, who are both listed as day-to-day. The Jets will likely win this game, as they have a big edge in goal, and their roster is a lot stronger overall, but I believe -180 is a fair price, all things considered. The fact that the market has settled, after opening around -160, is a good indication that bettors are waiting to find out whether Ehlers and/or Stastny will play.

Player Props:

Logan Couture Under 0.5 Points + 105 (DraftKings)

Couture has had a strong start to the season, but he's tailed off since the lineup was hit by the virus. The Sharks will be back at full strength soon, but Couture is going to have to make due with what he has for one more game, and the Propagator priced the under at -140.

Nashville Predators (+ 160) at St. Louis Blues (-180)

Nashville played their best hand in goal on Wednesday, and they were rewarded, as Juuse Saros picked up the win in Dallas. This is a good example of how the market behaves when there's a back-to-back situation involving the Predators, too, as both of Nashville's games were priced the same. However, once it was announced that Juuse Saros would play on Wednesday, bettors felt more comfortable laying the price with the Blues on Thursday. The Blues were opened as a -150 favorite but now sit at -180.

David Rittich could get the start for the Predators here, but I haven't ruled out the possibility that head coach John Hynes goes back to Saros. Nashville will play their third game in four days when they take on the Coyotes on Saturday, but will get two days off before playing the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Tuesday. Maybe the team will look at giving Saros five days off instead.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 160) at Colorado Avalanche (-190)

Nathan MacKinnon is out for three weeks, which is another big blow to the Avalanche, but they should be able to tread water until he returns, as Cale Makar appears to be good to go. Makar was paired with Devon Toews at practice on Tuesday, which means his status is probable for Thursday’s matchup against the Canucks. Thatcher Demko will is expected to start for the Canucks, while Devan Dubnyk is listed as the likely starter for the Avalanche. Nothing to see here, really. The Avalanche should be able to take care of the Canucks, but that doesn't mean there's any betting value in laying -190. In fact, I think the price is just right, and it's very unlikely.

Minnesota Wild (-105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-115)

Minnesota had the Golden Knights’ number last season, winning the season series and taking them to seven games in the first round of the playoffs. The Wild played on Wednesday in Arizona, but this is the fourth game in six days for the Golden Knights, so they’re not exactly rested. It doesn’t look like Mark Stone will return just yet, either. Cam Talbot had Wednesday off, so he's rested heading into this game, and by estimation, it's correctly priced as a coin flip. 

Anaheim Ducks (+ 145) at Seattle Kraken (-165)

Yanni Gourde is listed as day-to-day after blocking a shot on Tuesday, but Jared McCann has been activated from the COVID protocol list and could return to the lineup on Thursday. The line has been trending in Seattle’s direction since it opened, and there doesn’t look to be any resistance. In fact, I think there’s a very good chance that we could see the market continue to show the Kraken some love, and as a result, I’m going to be patient and see if that happens.

Update: It doesn't look like the price on the Ducks is going to get any better, as the consensus line has remained at + 145 throughout the day. And since John Gibson is now confirmed to start in goal, many of the sports books that were sitting at + 150 and above, have moved to + 145. There isn't a whole lot of value on the Ducks, but it does meet the threshold for a small wager.


Anaheim Ducks + 145 (half size)

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Los Angeles Kings -115 (half size)

Mike Hoffman Under 0.5 Points -135 (BetMGM)

Late Adds:

Anaheim Ducks + 145 (half size)
Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)
Logan Couture Under 0.5 Points + 105 (DraftKings)

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