NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 10/28


Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Monday, Oct. 25th

The Golden Knights played a terrible hockey game, but Laurent Brossoit stood tall. The same cannot be said about the Edmonton Oilers and Mikko Koskinen, who couldn’t come up with a save when they needed it. As a result, I went 1-3 versus game lines, while player props also finished 1-3. I’ve already forgotten about it, though, because it’s in the past.

Game Lines: 8-13, -6.08 units, -24.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Player Props: 39-33, -0.25 units, -0.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -115

Overall: 47-46, -6.33 units, -5.52 percent ROI

Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 26th

Thursdays are typically busier than this, but there are enough games to keep us busy.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Calgary Flames (+ 100) at Pittsburgh Penguins

Sidney Crosby was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and hasn’t been ruled out for Thursday’s game against the Flames in Pittsburgh. Whether the Penguins should be a favorite or an underdog depends on Crosby’s status. I’ll spare you all the details, but here’s where I end up as far as pricing. If Crosby plays, the Penguins should be a -115 favorite, which is where they’re at right now, otherwise this game a coin flip. Alternatively, if he doesn’t play, the Flames deserve to be a small favorite with Jacob Markstrom in goal. It’s the third game in four days for the Flames, but Markstrom had Wednesday off. I don’t recommend betting this game line now unless you’re someone that likes Pittsburgh and thinks Crosby will be in the lineup.

Note: Sidney Crosby will not play tonight. Bet the Calgary Flames at + 100 or better, but make it a half-size bet.


Calgary Flames + 100 (half size)

Player Prop:

Mikael Backlund Over 2.5 Shots + 135 (BetMGM)

Backlund hasn’t generated a lot of shots this season but had three or more in more than half of his games last season and the Propagator prices the over at + 120. It’s a bet that will lose more than it will win (about 45 percent of the time) but it’s a value bet nonetheless.

Boston Bruins (+ 110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-130)

The Bruins scored first in Florida on Wednesday, and generally controlled play in the first period, however, the team couldn’t sustain a high level of play throughout the entire game, and the Panthers pounced and picked up a 4-1 win. Jeremy Swayman will start in goal for the Bruins on Thursday. The Hurricanes have looked great, but the Bruins have looked better, and I don’t see any value in laying the favorite here. I could end up making a smaller wager on the Bruins if the line moves 10 cents or more, but it’s not something I’m banking on.

Player Prop:

David Pastrnak Over 3.5 Shots -120 (BetMGM)

Pastrnak has been off to a blazing start in terms of generating shots. The right-winger has gone over 3.5 shots in all but one game thus far (4-1) and, according to the Propagator, the over should be priced around -135.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 255) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-310)

Arizona plays again on Friday in Washington, so it’s unclear whether Karel Vejmelka or Carter Hutton will get the start in goal on Thursday, but either way, the Coyotes are going to be in tough against the Lightning, who are looking for a team to beat up on. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for a bettor to see some value on the Lightning, but I don’t see enough to justify laying -310. You’d have to be crazy to take + 255, though.

Player Props:

Jacob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points -165 and Under 3.5 Shots -125 (BetMGM)

Chychrun has been one of the strongest plays that the Propagator has picked out so far this season as he doesn't have a point yet this season. The under on these props should be priced at -195 and -180 respectively.

Colorado Avalanche (-125) at St. Louis Blues (+ 105)

Ryan O’Reilly and Brandon Saad are both in COVID protocols after testing positive for the virus and it doesn’t look like either player will be in the lineup on Thursday when the Blues host the Avalanche. O’Reilly plays tough minutes against the opposition’s best players, and the Blues are really going to miss him over this stretch. Even though the Avalanche are still somewhat shorthanded, Colorado should come away from St. Louis with a win approximately 58 percent of the time, which means the line should be -140, not -125.

Note: Mikko Rantanen was banged up at practice this morning (after I published this report and bet the Avalanche) and he is now listed as questionable. We won't know if Rantanen is going to play until closer to game time, so if you haven't already played Colorado on the moneyline, I would suggest you hold off until then,


Colorado Avalanche -125 (-130 or better)

Buffalo Sabres (+ 110) at Anaheim Ducks (-130)

Assuming John Gibson gets the start for the Ducks, -130 seems like a fair line, all things considered. There’s no denying that the Sabres have been good, but the only difference between this season and others where Buffalo has started off hot is that expectations are at an all-time low. Some might think that’s a good thing, and I can see where they’re coming from, but this team doesn’t have a lot of talent. And I mean, come on. It’s been six games, and five of them have been at home. Let’s see what they’re made of as they set out on their first real road trip since before the pandemic.

Minnesota Wild (-115) at Seattle Kraken (+ -105)

Neither coach has confirmed a goaltender yet, but I'm not sure it will matter. There really isn't much to say about this game because I think it's priced accurately and I don't foresee there being a big shift in the odds either way. A fair price for this game is around -105 in favor of the Kraken, assuming Cam Talbot starts for the Wild. Their chances of winning would increase a bit if the Wild opt to go with their backup goaltender, Kaapo Kahkonen.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 115) at Vancouver Canucks (-135)

Jaroslav Halak will likely get the start for the Canucks on Thursday as head coach Travis Green will probably want to save Thatcher Demko for a date with Connor McDavid and the Oilers on Saturday. If that’s the case, -135 is a fair line. I’ve gotten buried betting against the Flyers so far this season, and I’m certainly not going to reach on betting against them again just yet.

Player Props:

Cam Atkinson Over 2.5 Shots + 100 (BetMGM)

The 32-year old is averaging four shots per game and the Propagator estimates that the over should be priced at -125.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 110) at San Jose Sharks (-130)

Now, I’d love to bet on the Sharks here, because frankly, I don’t think the Canadiens are a good hockey team anymore, and San Jose has strong together some solid performances. But it’s still so early, and my model prices this game at -132 in favor of the Sharks, so it doesn’t look like I’ll end up with any action on either side here.

Player Prop:

Kevin Labanc Over 0.5 Assists + 310

This bet is only going to win about 28 percent of the time, according to the Propagator, which makes it the longest shot I've taken on a player prop bet so far this season. I'm not sure that this prop has been priced incorrectly all along (maybe it slipped under my nose) but it made me shaded towards the under because of the fact that Labanc only has one assist in six games. If that's the case, they're doing it wrong, because Labanc averaged many more assists per game than that over the past several seasons

Winnipeg Jets (-110) at Los Angeles Kings (-110)

Eric Comrie will get the start for the Jets on Thursday, but the big news out of Winnipeg is that Blake Wheeler has been cleared from COVID protocol. Unfortunately, Winnipeg is still without Mark Scheifele. However, the news out of Los Angeles is bigger, as it looks like Drew Doughty is going to be out at least a couple of months, if not longer. Now, there still could be some situations where the Kings end up being a value bet, but not on Thursday. Sure, the Jets won’t have Connor Hellebuyck in goal, but they still deserve to be a slightly bigger favorite than they are. Hopefully the Kings opt to go with Jonathan Quick in goal, but I've priced in Cal Petersen just to be safe.

Note: Jonathan Quick is slated to start for the Kings but that hasn't been confirmed.


Winnipeg Jets -110 (half size)

Player Prop:

Nikojaj Ehlers Over 2.5 Shots -145 (BetMGM)

Ehlers has been generating a bunch of shots this season, and with the Jets still down a forward, they're going to be counting on him again against the Kings. The over should be priced closer to -180, according to the Propagator.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Colorado Avalanche -125

Calgary Flames + 100 (half size)

Winnipeg Jets -110 (half size)

David Pastrnak Over 3.5 Shots -120 (BetMGM)

Mikael Backlund Over 2.5 Shots + 135 (BetMGM)

Late Adds:

Cam Atkinson Over 2.5 Shots + 100 (BetMGM)

Nikojaj Ehlers Over 2.5 Shots -145 (BetMGM)

Kevin Labanc Over 0.5 Assists %plussign 310 (DraftKings)

Jacob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points -165 and Under 3.5 Shots -125 (BetMGM)

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