NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 10/27

October 27, 2022 07:09 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. Follow me on Twitter to stay up to date as I handicap the NHL each day.

Market Report for Thursday, Oct. 27th

Recap: Wednesday was a quiet day. No bets.

Wins: 16 Losses: 11 Units Won: 4.69 units ROI: 16.8 percent

I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.

Today: Thursday’s betting market report is a work in progress. I will update this section later in the morning when it is finished. I have one bet that I wanted to get out early in the hopes of being on the right side of the day’s news.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 195) at Boston Bruins (-220)

The Bruins announced some big news on Wednesday. Brad Marchand is close to returning and will be back in the lineup a lot earlier than expected. He won’t be in the lineup on Thursday, though, and he isn’t going to play on Friday against the Blue Jackets. Boston should be able to pick up two wins in two days against two weak opponents, but the scheduling makes it tough to predict which goaltender they will start. Linus Ullmark has been great, but Jeremy Swayman hasn’t found his rhythm yet so head coach Jim Montgomery could choose to start him on Thursday. Swayman’s last start came in Ottawa on the second half of a back-to-back, and maybe the team will look at that and decide to give him a better chance to succeed this time around. It’s unclear who the Red Wings will start, but given how bad Alex Nedeljkovic has been so far, I think we’ll see Ville Husso. It probably won’t matter much, as Detroit is still without two of its most important players, Jakub Vrana and Tyler Bertuzzi. Boston should win the game approximately 68.5 percent of the time, which means the current game line accurately reflects the team’s chances of winning.

Update: Apparently Bruins' head coach Jim Montgomery is full of it. On Wednesday, he said that Marchand wouldn't play either of the next two games, but would play before Thanksgiving. However, on Thursday morning, Montgomery told reporters that Marchand will play against Detroit. Personally, I would rather coaches just keep their mouth's shut about this stuff, because I thought that his comments meant I didn't have to worry about this game. 

Florida Panthers (-200) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 175)

If the Philadelphia Flyers weren’t dealing with so many injuries, I might have considered backing them in this spot. They’re rested, having had three days off prior to the game, and goaltender Carter Hart has been great for them. These two teams have met already once this season. Florida won that game by a score of 4-3. However, the Flyers were playing their second game in as many days and Hart was not in goal for that game. The Panthers’ play has been underwhelming, and they aren’t going to be at their best until defenseman Aaron Ekblad returns to the lineup, which won’t be for a while. And besides, who knows how good the Panthers are. Like a lot of other people, I predicted that they wouldn’t be quite as good in 2022-23, and that looks to be the case so far. They’re certainly not good enough to justify betting them at -200.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 145) at Buffalo Sabres (-165)

Buffalo is an intriguing team, but after running through Western Canada last week, the Sabres kicked off this week with a 5-1 loss to the Kraken. Mattias Samuellson and Henri Jokiharju aren't big names, and they don't move the needle a whole lot, but the Sabres are still down two of their top four defensemen heading into this game. Montreal is also hurting, though, with defender Mike Matheson and a few other serviceable players out. No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky is listed day-to-day. Regardless of who the starting goaltenders are, Buffalo is in a better position to win the game, but I don't think they're a good bet at -165. In fact, I'm a lot closer to betting on the Canadiens than I am the Sabres, but I don't think it will get to that point.

Minnesota Wild (-125) at Ottawa Senators (+ 105)

Cam Talbot is reportedly still a few weeks away from making his debut as the Senators’ new starting goaltender, so he won’t be in the crease when Ottawa hosts his former team, the Minnesota Wild, on Thursday. The Senators have had two days off since their win over the Dallas Stars, while the Wild are in the middle of a five-game road trip. It’s the first of three games in four days for Minnesota, who have only beaten Vancouver and Montreal so far. The Senators could be relying on their third-string goaltender again, with Talbot out and backup Anton Forsberg listed day-to-day, but we will find out more once the team holds their morning skate. Ottawa is down one important player, though, as forward Josh Norris was recently placed on injured reserve. I'm closer to backing the Senators in this game than I am the Wild, but Ottawa's odds would have to be a lot bigger than + 105. Minnesota’s chances of winning the game are better than 50 percent, but they’re not better than 55.5 percent (-125) according to my model. Not bet.

Notes: Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to be in goal for the Wild.

Update: Anton Forsberg is in the starter's crease at practice and that means there's a good chance he returns to action on Thursday against Minnesota.

St. Louis Blues (+ 135) at Nashville Predators (-155)

St. Louis fell to the Oilers 3-1 on home ice on Wednesday. Jordan Binnington was in goal for the loss. There’s a good chance Thomas Greiss will make his second start of the season in Nashville on Thursday, but nothing has been confirmed. It doesn’t really matter to me, though. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is priced.

Update: There's been quite a strong move toward the Nashville Predators, with the Blues now sitting at + 155, so now I'm at least somewhat intrigued in this game. My confidence in Blues' backup goaltender Thomas Greiss is low, but at given that my model suggests Nashville should be priced around -150, there's now a chance I will end up placing a small bret on the Blues. Still, I'd the consensus line will have to reach + 160 for me to actually lock it in here, though. 

Edmonton Oilers (-215) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 185)

Edmonton's five-on-five scoring has been improving, slowly, and they should be able to score some goals against Alex Stalock and the Chicago Blackhawks on Thursday, despite the fact that this will be their second game in as many nights. The Oilers won 3-1 in St. Louis on Wednesday, and thanks to backup goaltender Stuart Skinner, starter Jack Campbell is fresh for Chicago.

Stalock isn't a newbie. He's a 35-year-old career backup. I'm not impressed by his .938 save percentage and his 3-1-0 record, but the Blackhawks have been decent defensively, believe it or not. My model prices this game a little bit higher than the market, but not enough to warrant betting on them in this spot. I would have second guessed my model a bit if the market had moved heavily in favor of Edmonton, but that hasn't happened. In fact, the market moved toward Chicago, and it doesn't look like there was any buy back on the Oilers.

Washington Capitals (+ 105) at Dallas Stars (-125)

Washington has had two days off since there win over the Devils, while the Stars are back home after an unsuccessful road trip. This is the third game in four days (and forth game in six days) for Dallas, and Miro Heiskanen, arguably the Stars best player, might not play. The 23-year-old missed Tuesday’s game against Boston due to injury and is considered day-to-day. Jake Oettinger is expected to start in goal.

The Stars have looked good to start the season, while the Capitals have seemingly just scraped by, but I’m still banking on my priors here. Washington is a good team, and Darcy Kuemper is expected to be in goal. Assuming Heiskanen remains out, the Capitals are a good bet. You might want to wait until the team releases a statement regarding his status, but I feel comfortable placing a partial wager on the Capitals at the current price.

I might add to my position later in the day depending on how things shake out.

Update: Miro Heiskanen WILL NOT play on Thursday. I've added (0.5 units to win 0.5 units) a small bet on the Capitals at even money on top of my original position. 

Bet: Washington Capitals + 105 Stake: 0.75 units to win 0.7875 units

Add: Washington Capitals EVEN Stake: 0.5 units to win 0.5 units

Vancouver Canucks (+ 105) at Seattle Kraken (-125)

Vancouver is still looking for its first win of the season on the first half of a back-to-back. The Canucks are in Seattle on Thursday, but they’re set to return home and host the Penguins on Friday. It’s unclear who will start in goal but given that the Canucks must take points away from the Kraken, there’s a chance head coach Bruce Boudreau could opt to start Thatcher Demko against them. Backup Spencer Martin will likely start one of the games, though, and it could be either. I mean, it’s not like Demko has played great to start the year.

On top of everything, though, injuries have started to pile up for the Canucks. Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser are both on the shelf right now. The latter is expected to be out until at least Nov. 1st, while the former’s injury is reported to be worse than the team originally thought. That doesn’t bode well for Vancouver’s chances of winning this game or turning their season around before it gets completely out of hand.

Assuming Hughes does not play, which seems like the case, Seattle is (for the most part) priced appropriately at -125 if the Canucks start Thatcher Demko.

Note: Martin Jones is expected to start for the Kraken.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 125) at Los Angeles Kings (-145)

When a team plays two games in two days, it usually makes it a little bit tougher to predict who their starting goaltenders will be for both games. However, since their next opponent, the Arizona Coyotes, is arguably the worst team in the league, I think we’ll likely see Connor Hellebuyck in goal on Thursday against the Kings and therefore, David Rittich will probably start against the Coyotes on Friday. Los Angeles is a good team, and they deserve to be the favorite, but with one of their most important players, Viktor Arvidsson, looking like he could be out of the lineup due to an illness, it’s hard to put a price on this game right now.

Notes: Kings’ forward Alex Iafallo and Jets’ forward Nikolaj Ehlers will not play.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-215) at San Jose Sharks (+ 185)

Oh, Toronto. How I hate analyzing your hockey team. Thankfully, there isn't much reason to discuss this game. We know the starting goaltenders are going to be third-stringer Erik Kallgren and backup Kaapo Kahkonen, which actually gives San Jose an edge in that department, according to my model. The Maple Leafs deserve to be big favorites, but -230 is big enough. 

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2021-22 Betting Season Recap:

NHL Betting Guide (Futures): 25.9 units

Reg Season (Sides and Totals): 6.22 units

Player Props: -15.33 units

Playoffs (Sides and Totals): -14.43 units

Thoughts: I tried to do too much last season (The Propagator is one example) because it was the first time that I was going to be producing content at large scale. I was worried that my typical betting habits would be seen as too selective and therefore not enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.

Going forward: I am back to focusing on what has worked for me all along: Making long term forecasts for futures markets and handicapping all 1,312 regular season games.

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