NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 10/21

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_16281479

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Wednesday Oct. 20th

Player props split 1-1 on Wednesday for a small loss, while every mistake the Bruins made seemed to end up in the back of their net, resulting in another losing side. That's gambling, right? It happens, and the grind continues.

Records 

Game Lines: 4-9, -6.0 units, -39.1 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -106

Player Props: 24-15, + 4.65 units, 11.3 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -118

Overall: 28-24, -0.35 units, -0.54 percent ROI

Market Report for Thursday, Oct. 21st

Another busy Thursday (get used to it) and navigating it could be difficult. There are several teams who have yet to confirm their starting goaltenders (get used to that, too) and at least one star player that’s questionable to suit up for his team.

Note: The start of the NBA season appears to have had an impact on NHL player props, as very few are being offered as of 10:30 a.m. ET. Player prop bets will be added to the report at a later time.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Islanders (-140) at Columbus (+ 120)

New York picked up their first win of the season in Chicago on Tuesday, and now they’re looking to make it two straight in Columbus. They haven’t looked the part through their first three games, but this team is still a contender. And, despite their winning record, it doesn’t look like the Blue Jackets have improved all that much. By my estimation, this game line should be priced closer to -155 in favor of the road team.

Note: Anders Lee (NYI) will play. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NYI) is questionable (game time decision)

Pick:

New York Islanders -140

Player Prop:

Patrik Laine Under 0.5 Points -115 (BetMGM)

Zach Werenski Under 2.5 Shots -140 (DraftKings)

Anders Lee Over 0.5 Points + 100 (BetMGM)

Four points in three games for Laine, but the Propagator prices the under at -170 as Columbus is matched up against one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. The Blue Jackets have faced easy competition thus far, and they don’t project to be a good team on offense. Lee is back in the lineup and should get a point about 52.4 percent of the time (or -110). 

Washington Capitals (-120) at New Jersey Devils (+ 100)

The Devils were victorious on Tuesday, but it came at a cost, as forward Jack Hughes was checked hard into the boards and left the game with a shoulder injury. The severity of the injury isn’t known at this time, but it doesn’t look like Hughes will be in the lineup when the Capitals come to town. Washington has looked good, despite not having their best playmaker in the lineup. News came out on Thursday morning that Jonathan Bernier is out with an upper-body injury, and since MacKenzie Blackwood doesn't appear to be ready to return, third-stringer Scott Wedgewood will likely get the start. Blackwood could be activated from injured reserve, so there is a bit of risk here, but -120 is a good price.

Pick:

Washington Capitals -120

Player Prop:

Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots -145 (DraftKings)

Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -110 (BetMGM)

Another fun bet, albeit a little chalky. The Propagator projects that Ovie will register four or more shots approximately 62 percent of the time so the line should be closer to -165. The Devils are shorthanded, and Hischier is going to play a bigger role, so I understand that betting against him to get a point might seem counterintuitive. However, Hischier has never been a consistent scorer and this prop should be priced closer to -145.

Colorado Avalanche (-110) at Florida Panthers (-110)

Nathan MacKinnon made his return on Tuesday and Gabriel Landeskog is eligible to return from his suspension on Thursday. Maybe now the Avalanche will put together a solid performance. Colorado didn’t show up in Washington against the Capitals, so I expect to see a consorted effort from the team. The Panthers aren’t going to roll over for anybody, but Sergei Bobrovsky might. However, -110 is a little too rich for my blood given that the Avalanche have looked out of sorts. I start to see value at -105 (or better) and that’s what I went after this morning. This bet won’t make it onto my official card unless there’s a shift in the odds.

Note: Jonas Johansson is starting in goal for the Avalanche on Thursday. It's not enough to shift me to the Panthers, but I don't want any part of Colorado now.

San Jose Sharks (-110) at Ottawa Senators (-110)

San Jose is on the first half of a back-to-back. They’ll take on the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Friday. James Reimer gets the start for the Sharks as a result. Matt Murray has been confirmed as the Senator’s starter, and that almost certainly means I won’t be making a play on the Senators. If Adin Hill were in goal for the Sharks, this would be an easy bet to make. But he’s not, and it isn’t. Not to mention, Brady Tkachuk is also making his long-awaited return to the Senators' lineup.

Player Prop:

Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 Shots + 110 (DraftKings)

Tkachuk makes his season debut (contract negotiations) and, according to the Propagator, Tkachuk should register three or more shots on goal much more than 50 percent of the time. Given that the price is + 110, this easily constitutes as a value bet. This is a fun bet that should win more often than not.

Carolina Hurricanes (-120) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 100)

It’s time to forget about the Canadiens’ Cup run because this team doesn’t have it. With that said, I’m not sold on the Hurricanes’ new look, either. Montreal is still searching for their first win after losing their first four games. The pressure is on the Canadiens (and their coach) to right the ship before they set sail for Seattle next week. The game line has bounced around a bit, but none of it has mattered to me as my projected line for this game is approximately -120.

Calgary Flames (-135) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 115)

Calgary hasn’t looked good, but this too much of an over adjustment, right? Maybe. We’re not sure who either team is going to start in goal (it’ll probably Jacob Markstrom for Calgary) and if it’s Alex Nedeljkovic, I’m not going to lay -135 on the road team. In fact, there’s probably no scenario that will lead to me reaching for a price here. I’ll lay the favorite if all the stars align and the price comes down.

New York Rangers (-105) at Nashville Predators (-115)

There’s two ways that Rangers’ head coach Gerard Gallant could go here. He could elect to give his starter, Igor Shesterkin, the night off after a magnificent performance against the Maple Leafs. Or he could choose to ride the hot hand. We don’t know, because Gallant doesn’t reveal his starter before games. That’s fine, though. I’ll play the game the way it’s laid out for me. It worked against Toronto when the line moved in the Leafs’ direction throughout the day. Maybe a situation will develop where it will be advantageous to back the Rangers on Thursday, but it’s only going if the price gets to a point where the Rangers are an underdog and I also want to know who is starting in goal.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 170) at Winnipeg Jets (-200)

Blake Wheeler is out for at least the next 10 days due to COVID, and although the situation in Winnipeg doesn’t look like it will be as serious as first reported, we still don’t know what players could be affected by the virus. For that reason, there isn’t much to report on this game from a betting perspective.

Note: Mark Scheifele will not be in the lineup on Thursday (COVID protocols)

Vancouver Canucks (+ 115) at Chicago Blackhawks (-135)

No news on Quinn Hughes, yet. I won’t blame the Canucks’ loss to the Sabres solely on his absence, but it did hurt their chances and I don’t want to make a move on this game until there’s more information.

Edmonton Oilers (-200) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 175)

Mike Smith was placed on injured reserve, so that probably means Mikko Koskinen makes his first start of the season for the Oilers. However, the Oilers play in Vegas on Friday so there’s a chance that they go a different route. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are probably going to run over the Coyotes, but as noted in a previous report, goaltender Karel Vejmelka is an unknown and he will get the start on Thursday. I haven’t ruled out a play on the Oilers, but I won’t be laying -200.

Note: Koskinen will start in goal against the Coyotes, but personally, I am curious to see where the market goes here. 

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

New York Islanders -140

Washington Capitals -120

Late Adds:

Patrik Laine Under 0.5 Points -115 (BetMGM)

Zach Werenski Under 2.5 Shots -140 (DraftKings)

Anders Lee Over 0.5 Points + 100 (BetMGM)

Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots -145 (DraftKings)

Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -110 (BetMGM)

Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 Shots + 110 (DraftKings)

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