NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 10/14

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

USATSI_15699174

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report for Wednesday, Oct. 13

Tuesday’s player prop bets split 3-3, which resulted in a loss of -0.9 units. And despite throwing everything at John Gibson, the Jets suffered a demoralizing defeat at the hands of the Ducks which brought the total to -2.25 units.

Records: 

Game Lines 0-1, (-1.35) units,

Player Props 8-6, (+ 0.85) units, 4.7 percent ROI

Overall 8-7, (- 0.50) units, -2.58 percent ROI

Market Report for Thursday, Oct. 14th

With nine games on tap for Thursday, it’s really starting to feel like hockey season again. However, early in the season, I tend to err on the side of caution. My approach is to try and accumulate as much information as possible so that I can have confidence in my judgements as the season progresses but I’m not quite there yet so I’ll be taking it slow for your sake and mine.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Toronto Maple Leafs (-170) at Ottawa Senators (+ 150)

Yes, the Maple Leafs played the Canadiens on Wednesday, and the Senators are a scrappy bunch but come on. There’s no value in betting against what will be Petr Mrazek’s first start at + 150, however, given that the Sens have played the Leafs tightly, there could be a move in their direction, I would lay the favorite in that case. But I’d have to feel confident that I’m going to get the best of it.

Montreal Canadiens (-135) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 115)

In the morning report I stated that I would be interested in laying the favorite here if Jake Allen got the start, but that's not going to happen. Backup goaltender Samuel Montembeault will get the start and I want no part of that given that there hasn't been a shift in the odds. I guess nobody wants to bet the Sabres.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 155) at Florida Panthers (-175)

Even if Jake Guentzel does play, + 155 isn’t going to draw me in to bet on the Penguins. I know, I know. Pittsburgh looked great in Tampa Bay on Tuesday, but one game is not enough to question whether my process is sound, and the game of hockey is chaotic. If the odds shift significantly towards the Panthers, I might be consider backing the Penguins if the game line trends towards + 170, but Guentzel would have to be in the lineup. I’m not interested in laying anywhere near -180 on the Sergei Bobrovsky’s first start of the season, though.

Player Props:

Sam Bennett Under 0.5 Assists -160 and Under 0.5 Points + 110 (DraftKings)

Kasperi Kapanen Under 0.5 Points -125 (DraftKings)

After years of struggling in Calgary as member of the Flames, Bennett went off last season after being acquired by the Panthers. The Propagator clearly paints this was an aberration and I’d have to agree. I'm also sticking with a strategy that worked on Tuesday and betting against Kapanen to register a point. It was a sweat then, and it'll probably be a sweat this time around, but I'm putting my faith in the Propagator.

New York Islanders (+ 105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-125)

I project that these two Metropolitan Division foes will finish approximately one point apart in the standings, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I don’t see any value backing either side given the current price. The Hurricanes should be a small favorite at home against the Islanders, which they are, and there probably won’t be a whole lot of movement there.

Player Props:

Vincent Trocheck Under 0.5 Points 105 (DraftKings)

It's not a very big edge, relative to some of the other bets, but according to the Propagator, Trocheck only has about a 46 percent chance of tallying a point. The chalk is on the wrong side of this prop according to the Propagator. Bet the on Trocheck not to score a point.

Dallas Stars (+ 105) at New York Rangers (-125)

The Rangers sacrificed their backup goaltender in a blow-out loss to the Capitals on Wednesday, so it certainly looks like we’ll see starter Igor Shesterkin on Thursday. However, we don’t know who is starting in goal for the Stars. I don’t have a lot of confidence in Anton Khudobin anymore, but Braden Holtby scares me. It also doesn’t help that Jason Robertson is injured. He didn’t travel with the team, either. There’s not much separating these two teams, but I don’t see any real value in betting the Rangers at -125 on the second half of a back-to-back.

Player Props:

John Klingberg Under 0.5 Points -140 (BetMGM)

Artemi Panarin Over 0.5 Assists + 100 (DraftKings)

It doesn't look like John Klingberg will be on the top power play unit, and the Propagator prices the under at -160. And would you look at that, we have our first over of the season that doesn't have to do with shots on goal. The odds imply Artemi Panarin's chances of getting an assist are about 50 percent. The Propagator projects that he'll pick up a helper almost 58 percent of the time. 

Arizona Coyotes (+ 140) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-160)

Jakub Voracek and Patrik Laine will skate together on the top line and I’m excited to see what they can do together. That’s about the only thing that interests me about this game, though. Phill Kessel was listed as questionable for the game but since then it has been announced that he will be in the lineup. The line moved from -140 to -160 overnight so there’s absolutely no way I’ll end up on the Blue Jackets. And while I am at least a little concerned that they could be a team that I’m too low on. I'm more concerned that the Coyotes are worse than I thought.

Player Props:

Phil Kessel Under 0.5 Assists -210 and Under 0.5 Points + 105 (DraftKings)

Kessel's decade-long iron man streak will continue, but this team is a disaster and he doesn't have a lot to work with. The Propagator estimates that these bets should be priced around -335 and -150 respectively.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-220) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 190)

If I’m going to hold my nose and bet on an ugly team, it’s going to be the Red Wings. The Lightning have shown that they don’t always put it together in the regular season, and although it’s much more likely than not that they’ll come away with the victory, I’m willing to give Alex Nedeljkovic a shot at + 190 (or better).

Pick: Detroit Red Wings + 190

Player Props:

Nikita Kucherov Under 1.5 Points -200 (DraftKings)

After cashing this prop on Tuesday, albeit at -115, I hope it will be a little easier to lay -200. The Propagator points to there being a lot of value here as Kucherov's odds of getting at least two points are much lower than the odds imply.

Seattle Kraken (+ 105) at Nashville Predators (-125)

Some shops opened with Kraken listed as + 130 underdogs and well, you know, it’s not available anymore. The Kraken could very well end up being better than the Predators, but goaltender Juuse Saros should be enough to scare you away from reaching here.

Vegas Golden Knights (-155) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 135)

This line makes sense, unless Jonathan Quick starts for the Kings or Laurent Brossoit starts for the Golden Knights. It only makes sense if Cal Petersen is at one end and Robin Lehner is at the other. My guess is that the line will move quite a bit, one way or the other, if we’re gifted some other combination of starting goaltenders. Brossoit isn’t a bad goaltender, but he’s a downgrade. Quick, on the other hand, appears to be totally washed up at this point.

Summary

Early Bets:

Detroit Red Wings + 190

Nikita Kucherov Under 1.5 Points -200 (DraftKings)

Sam Bennett Under 0.5 Assists -160 and Under 0.5 Points + 110 (DraftKings)

John Klingberg Under 0.5 Points -140 (DraftKings)

Late Adds:

Phil Kessel Under 0.5 Assists -210 and Under 0.5 Points + 105 (DraftKings)

Kasperi Kapanen Under 0.5 Points -125 (DraftKings)

Artemi Panarin Over 0.5 Assists + 100 (DraftKings)

Vincent Trocheck Under 0.5 Points + 105 (DraftKings)

Don’t forget there’s still time to pick up your copy of VSiN’s 2021-22 NHL Betting Guide and follow me on Twitter.

 

 

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