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Market Report for Thursday, Oct. 13th
Wednesday, Oct. 12th - Both recommended bets, Carolina -250 and Seattle + 110, closed strong, but only the Hurricanes were able to get the job done as the Kraken lost to the Ducks on the road after blowing multiple leads. The bankroll is no worse off, but it’s frustrating to get that close to experiencing a profitable day and have things go south. It’s not the first time, though, and it sure as hell won’t be the last time.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available.
All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake.
Arizona Coyotes (+ 300) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-365)
I predict Pittsburgh will win this game approximately 78 percent of the time, which obviously means that they’ll win of the time. That’s good, right? Well, no. A 78 percent change converts to odds of about -355. Nothing to see here. The Coyotes stink, but the market is fully aware of that. Move along. There’s nothing to see here.
Ottawa Senators (-125) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 105)
There’s a lot of hype around the Ottawa Senators after signing Claude Giroux and acquiring Alex DeBrincat, and that’s been reflected in the betting market, and it looks like market could call me to bet against them more often than it calls me to bet on them. However, the Sabres aren’t a good hockey team, yet, and + 105 isn't enough to warrant a bet on Buffalo, but I would consider backing the Sabres if Eric Comrie is in goal and I can take + 110 or better.
New Jersey Devils (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 115)
I’m not nearly as high on the Devils as the betting market, and I think they’re a good bet to miss the playoffs, but the Flyers project to be one of the worst teams in the league. Forward Nico Hischier won’t be in the Devils’ lineup on Thursday, which is a big blow to their chances of winning a given game, but the Flyers will be missing both Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson to start the season.
Bet: New Jersey Devils -135, Stake: 0.5 units to win 0.35 units
Update: It looked like Hischier might suit up for the Devils on Thursday in Philadelphia, which would be a good thing, but it's now being reported that he will not actually play at all.
Washington Capitals (+ 175) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-200)
Both Washington and Toronto are looking to bounce back after losing as favorites on Tuesday. Former Capitals’ goaltender, Ilya Samsonov, will start for the Maple Leafs, while backup Charlie Lindgren is expected to make his debut for the Capitals. It’s not a great spot for either team, but my model suggests that the line should be closer to -160 in favor of the home team, therefore, I locked in the Capitals at around + 175 to win the game. Shop around. Do not bet + 155 or + 160. Not only are those -EV bets, but the odds are far worse than what is readily available at a slew of different sportsbooks.
Bet: Washington Capitals + 175 Stake: 0.90 units to win 1.575 units
Florida Panthers (-135) at New York Islanders (+ 115)
I’m interested to see how much staying power the Florida Panthers have as far as being one of the top teams in the NHL. They were a dominant team in 2021-22, but they weren’t nearly as dominant on the road as they were at home. New York has better goaltending, too. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is currently priced, at least not according to my model, though.
New York Rangers (+ 120) at Minnesota Wild (-140)
The Rangers and Wild both project to be 100-point teams this season, but I have New York rated higher than Minnesota. However, with two games in two nights versus Western Conference opponents, it’s tough to predict who head coach Gerard Gallant will start in goal. The team will travel to back to New York for a game against the Jets on Friday, and there is a chance that Jaroslav Halak could make his first start as a member of the Rangers. It would be better to wait and hear from Gallant before taking a position.
Now, if you like Minnesota and think Halak will get the start, it would be wise to consider placing your bet now, because the market will almost certainly shift toward the home team if that’s the case. But, if you think there’s a chance that Shesterkin could start again, you might end up with the worst of it. In other words, if you’re betting on this game on Thursday morning, you’re doing so with quite a bit of uncertainty as to whether you’re going to get a good price or not. I’ll take the Rangers if Shesterkin starts, and the price is right at around + 120.
Update: Shesterkin will start on Thursday in Minnesota, according to Gallant, and that means the Rangers are a decent bet at + 115 or better.
Bet: New York Rangers + 115 Stake: 0.5 units to win 0.58 units
Dallas Stars (+ 110) at Nashville Predators (-130)
There isn’t much separating Nashville and Dallas in the projected standings, but the Predators grade out as a better team thanks to goaltender Juuse Saros. There’s a lot of buzz around Stars’ goaltender Jake Oettinger after a spectacular performance in the playoffs, but he still has a lot to prove. My model is in line with the betting market in that it has the Predators listed as a -130 favorite.
Colorado Avalanche (+ 100) at Calgary Flames (-120)
The Colorado Avalanche raised their Stanley Cup banner on Wednesday before picking up an easy win over the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, and they did so with their backup goaltender, Alex Georgiev, in the crease. Pavel Francouz will start on Thursday in Calgary, which will help the Avalanche on short rest, but these early season back-to-back situations can be tough when there’s travel involved. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom is in danger of missing Thursday's game after missing Wednesday's practice due to an illness. However, even if Dan Vladar gets the start, my model has suggests the Flames shouldn't be priced any lower than -127 in this game. Therefore, I bet on them to beat the defending champions at -120.
Bet: Calgary Flames -120 Stake: 0.9 units to win 0.75 units
Update: Markstrom is at Flames' practice and according to Sportsnet's Pat Steinberg, it looks like he will start on Thursday versus Colorado, but nothing has been confirmed by the team.
Seattle Kraken (+ 155) at Los Angeles Kings (-180)
Luckily, I’m not being incentive to back the Kraken again after they choked on Wednesday night and blew a big lead late in the game. It cost me, and probably a lot of you, a good bet. My model prices the Kings at around -175, but who knows, maybe Seattle will be better off with Martin Jones in the crease. I’m sure it wouldn’t take much to win the starting job over Philipp Grubauer at this point.
Chicago Blackhawks (+ 290) at Vegas Golden Knights (-350)
Vegas looked great in their season opener versus the Los Angeles Kings, and the good vibes will likely continue as they’re set to play a tired and beat up Chicago Blackhawks team on Thursday night. It’s tough to gauge just how bad Chicago is going to be this season, and I’m not much for picking low hanging fruit, especially when it’s overpriced.
Notes: Alex Stalock is expected to start in goal for Chicago.