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Market Report Recap for Saturday, Jan. 29th
There was just one recommended bet on Saturday, and it was a loser. The Tampa Bay Lightning were a good bet on the moneyline (-140) earlier in the day, and the game line closed at -150. The Bolts got off to a terrible start, though, and the Golden Knights capitalized on a lucky bounce to take a 1-0 lead in the first period. It took another Vegas goal for the Lightning to finally wake up. They tied the game 2-2 and sent it to overtime but lost in a shootout.
71-62, + 2.55 units, 2.0 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Sunday, Jan. 30th
There are seven games scheduled for Sunday, and I have one early bet on a road favorite. Hopefully I can end the week with a positive result.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Los Angeles Kings (+ 180) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-210)
Pittsburgh is the fifth stop on the Kings’ six-game road trip, and it will also be their toughest test. The Kings lost to the Flyers (in overtime) on Saturday, so they’ll be playing tired against the Penguins today, however, the Penguins are playing their third game in four nights, so it’s not a great spot for them either. Jonathan Quick started in Philadelphia, which means Cal Petersen will almost certainly get the nod on Sunday in Pittsburgh. Tristan Jarry is expected to start for the Penguins after Casey DeSmith suffered a loss against the Red Wings a couple of nights ago. It goes without saying that the Penguins are the superior team here, but the Kings are a strong team and they’ve been playing particularly good as of late. According to my model, the Pittsburgh deserves to be priced around -200.
Seattle Kraken (+ 155) at New York Rangers (-175)
Seattle would have been playing their second game in as many nights on Sunday, but Saturday’s game between the Kraken and Islanders was postponed due to a snowstorm, but that shouldn’t impact this game. Igor Shesterkin is in goal for the Rangers, and assuming Philipp Grubauer is between the pipes for the Kraken, my model prices this game around -170 in favor of the Rangers. Both teams are missing some depth, but the Rangers are without superstar defenseman Adam Fox. This is a big blow to the Rangers offense, or at least it should be, but the Kraken are ranked 29th in the league in goals allowed per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey. Shesterkin should provide them with the goaltending they need to outscore their problems against a team like the Kraken, which is why they’re still a sizeable favorite even without Fox.
San Jose Sharks (+ 230) at Carolina Hurricanes (-270)
Both San Jose and Carolina played on Saturday, but the Hurricanes didn’t have to travel. San Jose lost to the Panthers in 5-4 in overtime. Carolina defeated the Devils by a score of 2-1. Frederik Andersen will start in goal for the Hurricanes, while the Sharks will go back to James Reimer, who faced the Panthers last night. According to my model, the Hurricanes should be priced closer to -285. If the game line moves toward San Jose, I might consider betting on the Hurricanes in some capacity, but the edge is not big enough to consider doing that right now.
Columbus Blue Jackets (-130) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 110)
The Oilers made easy work of the Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday, defeating them by a score of 7-2. The game was never close and at no point did it feel like there was any chance that the Canadiens would mound a comeback. The Blue Jackets aren’t a formidable opponent, but they do score almost three goals per 60 minutes in all situations and the Canadiens are allowing close to four. Unfortunately, the game line was bet up to -155 before I could even get down myself, let alone justify my bet before publishing a report on all seven games. I’m now thankful that happened, though, as Jonas Korpisalo will get the start in goal for the Blue Jackets. Those who bet the Blue Jackets early would have obtained positive expected value if Elvis Merzlikins had been announced as the starter, but that’s not the case anymore. My model prices the Blue Jackets around -135.
Boston Bruins (-125) at Dallas Stars (+ 105)
Early money pushed the Bruins down to -120 at most shops, as some bettors apparently have had an appetite to bet the Stars at around + 110. I do not, though, because my model prices this game around -135 in favor of the road team. Boston has cooled off a bit, losing two of their last three, but their schedule has been spread out and this will be just their third game in six days. The Stars are coming off a 5-0 loss to the Capitals at home, and although they had won four in a row prior to that game, those wins came against Buffalo, Detroit, Philadelphia and New Jersey. Dallas is a mediocre team, grading out in the middle of the pack when it comes to expected goals. In most areas, though, the Stars are below-average. The Bruins, meanwhile, have been putting together some strong performances since Jan. 1st. They’ve owned 58 percent of the expected goals at even strength over their last 15 games, as their expected goal share was 55 percent of better in 10 of those games. Boston’s offense might not explode against the Stars today, but they should win the game approximately 57.5 percent of the time, and therefore, they’re a value bet at -125 or better. However, I didn’t have to lay more than -120, as it was widely available. Shops around, because the price ranges from -120 to -130 depending on the sportsbook.
Notes: Linus Ullmark will start in goal for the Bruins. Matt Grzelcyk returned to the Bruins lineup in the last game. Jake Oettinger will start in goal for the Stars after Braden Holtby was pulled after allowing five goals in two periods on Friday.
Boston Bruins -125
Minnesota Wild (-130) at New York Islanders (+ 115)
Defenseman Jonas Brodin returned to the Minnesota lineup in time for Friday’s game against the Rangers. He was out since Jan. 6th. I’m interested in laying the Wild at -120 or better, but that’s not a price that’s available right now. My model prices the Wild closer to -130. The Islanders will get defender Ryan Pulock back into the lineup at some point soon, but it likely won’t be today. The Islanders have played 10 games since returning from the break, and they’ve won seven of those games, but those wins have come against the Buffalo, Edmonton, New Jersey, Philadelphia (twice) and Arizona. In the other three games, they lost to the Capitals, Maple Leafs and Kings. The Wild have played nine games since the break, losing only two, and they have wins over some quality teams, and a shootout loss to the Avalanche. Their underlying numbers are stronger than they’ve been in quite some time. Cam Talbot is expected to start in goal for the Wild, while Ilya Sorokin is expected to be between the pipes for New York.
Buffalo Sabres (+ 425) at Colorado Avalanche (-550)
Colorado is once again pegged as a huge favorite, and rightfully so. The Sabres got past the Coyotes on Saturday, after the entire hockey world seemed to think they were doomed due to their goaltending situation. Craig Anderson made his first start since Nov. 2nd and picked up the win. It’s unclear who the Sabres will start in goal on Sunday in Colorado, but it seems likely that they will be without their biggest body, Tage Thompson. The 6’ 7” forward suffered an injury on Saturday and reportedly left the dressing room with a notable limp. According to my model, the Avalanche should be priced around -560.
Boston Bruins -125
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended play prop bets currently.