NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 5/22

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Saturday, May 21st

There were no recommended bets on Saturday. Player prop bets went 1-2 for a break-even night (the two losses were half size bets).

Record: 112-108, + -4.20 units, -1.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, May 22nd

Lets’ look at things from a betting perspective.

Florida Panthers (-115) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-105)

The Panthers were the aggressor in Game 2, until the final seconds, when they totally lost the plot. Tampa Bay scored with 3.9 seconds left in regulation to take a 2-1 lead in the game and a 2-0 lead in the series. Florida’s offense, which was so lethal during the regular season, has been stagnant in the playoffs. Their power play, which was the fifth-best in the NHL during the regular season, is 0-for-25 in the playoffs. Can the Panthers turn it around and win the series? Sure, they can. Florida can put everything behind them by winning the next two games. The Boston Bruins did it in 2011 when they started the playoffs 0-for-30 on the power play and went on to win the Stanley Cup. However, the Bruins didn’t have to stare down Andrei Vasilevskiy, who seems to be back in his playoff groove. The Panthers have the skill to take down the Lightning, but Tampa Bay is a patient team, and they’re experienced in the art of playoff hockey. Sergei Bobrovsky could help the Panthers by stealing a game, but I wouldn’t count on it with Vasilevskiy on the other end of the rink. The Panthers need to beat the Lightning with their fire power, but with two goals in two games, and the Lightning seemingly settling into another run at the Stanley Cup, the Presidents’ Trophy winners are in a very tough spot. My Model prices the Panthers at around -120, so there isn’t quite enough value to justify laying -115. I’ve already marked my series bet as a loss but hopefully the Panthers can get back in the series.

Carolina Hurricanes (-115) at New York Rangers (-105)

The Rangers and Bruins scored goals at similar rate during the regular season, so it doesn’t surprise me that Carolina has been able to shut down New York, like it did Boston. Frederik Andersen hasn’t played a single playoff game, though, and the fact that Antti Raanta has been so good is a bit of a shock. He was solid in the regular season, but he’s posted a .938 save percentage in the playoffs and has only lost two out of 10 games. On the other side, Igor Shesterkin’s save percentage has dropped off from .935 in the regular season to .914 in the playoffs. Not bad, by any means, but Shesterkin hasn’t been a world beater and he’s being outplayed by Raanta. The Rangers have been the better team at even strength through two games, and they’re probably unlucky to be down 0-2 in the series, but they haven’t scored timely goals and the Hurricanes have. My model estimates that Carolina should be priced around -120 in Game 3.

Calgary Flames (-120) at Edmonton Oilers (+ 100)

As much as I want the Flames to win every game for the sake of my series bet, it’s great theatre. The first two games are already two of the best playoff games that I have ever had the pleasure to watch, and this series has lived up to the hype like no other in recent memory. The Flames are the better team overall, and Jacob Markstrom is better than Mike Smith, but thanks to Connor McDavid and one of the greatest playoff performances in history, that edge hasn’t translated to dominant performances. The Flames have looked like a the far superior team at times, particularly early in games, but haven’t played well with a lead. That was especially the case in Game 2. Calgary led for 32 minutes and during that time, they were outshot 21-20, and high danger chances were 10-7 in favor of the Oilers, according to hockey stats website Natural Stat Trick. I live in Edmonton, and I’ve been watching a lot of Connor McDavid since he arrived in the NHL. I have never watched him go off like this so relentlessly. He's built different. Head coach Darryl Sutter will have adjusted, though, and while I’m not confident the Flames can completely shut down McDavid, I am confident that they are the better team. Calgary is a great road team, and they should be able to play the villain in front of a raucous crowd at Rogers’ Place in Edmonton. According to my model, the Flames should be priced around -135, and therefore, I’m going to bet against McDavid and the Oilers even though I’m not thrilled about it. As far as player prop bets, Johnny Gaudreau and Blake Coleman are two of the Flames' best shot generators, as the former ranks first on the team and latter sits in fourth place. Gaudreau has registered at least four shots in six of his last seven games, and he has 11 shots in two games versus Edmonton, while Coleman has taken at least three shots in six of nine playoff games, and has seven shots on goal in the second round. He's been the type of player that the Flames have been looking for, and I expect that he's going to continue to play that way on such a big stage.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -120

Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots + 110

Blake Coleman Over 2.5 Shots + 120

Bet Summary:

Calgary Flames -120

Player Prop Bets:

Johnny Gaudreau Over 3.5 Shots + 110

Blake Coleman Over 2.5 Shots + 120

Record: 116-115, -11.1 units, -4.07 percent ROI

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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