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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 4/3

April 3, 2022 10:05 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Saturday, April 2nd

The only recommended bet (a small play on the Bruins to cover the puck line) was a winner thanks to not one, but two, empty-net goals.

Record:

101-86, + 7.1 units, 3.7 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, April 3rd

There are nine games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Florida Panthers (-250) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 220)

Florida was down 6-2 to the Devils in New Jersey on Saturday, but they left with a win after scoring four goals in the third period and the overtime winner. It was the fourth time this season that the Panthers came back to win when trailing by three or more goals in the third period, and if I’m not mistaken, the Panthers are in rarified air, as no team has ever accomplished that feat more than four times in a season before. This team is never out of it, especially when trailing weaker teams, and the Sabres are just that. Sergei Bobrovsky started on Saturday, and he allowed six goals on 25 shots. Spencer Knight played the third period and overtime and will like start on Sunday. This is a tough spot for the Panthers, though, as silly as it sounds. The season has been a grind, and this is their second game this weekend, and their fourth game in six days. The Sabres have been competitive, earning nine wins in their last 15 games, and they lost three games by just one goal. They could be spent after an emotional win over the Predators on Friday, though. I don’t think I’m going to make any pregame bets on this game, but I will watch for an opportunity to jump in on the Panthers in-game.

Minnesota Wild (+ 105) at Washington Capitals (-125)

Marc-Andre Fleury and the Wild picked up a 3-1 win over the Hurricanes in Carolina on Saturday, and now they’re in Washington to take on a well-rested Capitals team. Washington has been off since Monday’s 6-1 loss to the Hurricanes, but early money has pushed the Capitals line from -130 down to -125 and -120. My model doesn’t agree with the line movement, and therefore, I’m going to lay the favorite in this matchup. The Capitals have been inconsistent, but there’s not much separating them and the Wild, and the latter is tired. Cam Talbot hasn’t been good this season, and despite a strong save percentage over his last nine starts, Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model suggests that it’s a product of the team’s play in front of him, and maybe a little luck. The Capitals will also be icing a deeper lineup on Sunday than they have over the past couple of weeks, as several injured players are set to return. According to my model, the home team should be priced closer to -135.

Pick:

Washington Capitals -125 (half size)

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