NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 4/3

April 3, 2022 10:05 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, April 2nd

The only recommended bet (a small play on the Bruins to cover the puck line) was a winner thanks to not one, but two, empty-net goals.

Record:

101-86, + 7.1 units, 3.7 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, April 3rd

There are nine games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Florida Panthers (-250) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 220)

Florida was down 6-2 to the Devils in New Jersey on Saturday, but they left with a win after scoring four goals in the third period and the overtime winner. It was the fourth time this season that the Panthers came back to win when trailing by three or more goals in the third period, and if I’m not mistaken, the Panthers are in rarified air, as no team has ever accomplished that feat more than four times in a season before. This team is never out of it, especially when trailing weaker teams, and the Sabres are just that. Sergei Bobrovsky started on Saturday, and he allowed six goals on 25 shots. Spencer Knight played the third period and overtime and will like start on Sunday. This is a tough spot for the Panthers, though, as silly as it sounds. The season has been a grind, and this is their second game this weekend, and their fourth game in six days. The Sabres have been competitive, earning nine wins in their last 15 games, and they lost three games by just one goal. They could be spent after an emotional win over the Predators on Friday, though. I don’t think I’m going to make any pregame bets on this game, but I will watch for an opportunity to jump in on the Panthers in-game.

Minnesota Wild (+ 105) at Washington Capitals (-125)

Marc-Andre Fleury and the Wild picked up a 3-1 win over the Hurricanes in Carolina on Saturday, and now they’re in Washington to take on a well-rested Capitals team. Washington has been off since Monday’s 6-1 loss to the Hurricanes, but early money has pushed the Capitals line from -130 down to -125 and -120. My model doesn’t agree with the line movement, and therefore, I’m going to lay the favorite in this matchup. The Capitals have been inconsistent, but there’s not much separating them and the Wild, and the latter is tired. Cam Talbot hasn’t been good this season, and despite a strong save percentage over his last nine starts, Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model suggests that it’s a product of the team’s play in front of him, and maybe a little luck. The Capitals will also be icing a deeper lineup on Sunday than they have over the past couple of weeks, as several injured players are set to return. According to my model, the home team should be priced closer to -135.

Pick:

Washington Capitals -125 (half size)

New York Islanders (-145) at New Jersey Devils (+ 125)

Ilya Sorokin could be back in between the pipes for the Islanders on Sunday after suffering a head injury, but if he isn’t, Semyon Varlamov could make his fourth start in the last six days. The Devils are likely going to turn back to Nico Daws, since Andrew Hammond was in goal against the Panther son Saturday. If Sorokin is in goal, the Islanders should be priced around -140, but a fair price would be closer to -125 if Varlamov must make another start.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 250) at New York Rangers (-300)

It sounds like the Rangers are keen on resting Igor Shesterkin as much as possible prior to the playoffs, and that means we could see head coach Gerard Gallant alternate between Shesterkin and Alex Georgiev. Shesterkin and the Rangers were shutout by the Islanders on home ice in their last game, but the market seems to believe that he’ll be in goal on Sunday. The Rangers will play the Devils and Penguins later this week, and I don’t think the team wants to send Georgiev out against the latter, who they will likely face in the first round of the playoffs. In other words, I tend to lean toward Shesterkin starting against the Flyers, and then resting until they meet the Penguins on Thursday. As far as this game goes, I don’t think laying the favorite should be considered a value bet.

Edmonton Oilers (-200) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 175)

Anaheim snapped their 11-game losing streak, but it came at a cost, as their leading scorer, Troy Terry, was pummelled by Coyotes’ forward Jay Beagle late in the same and suffered an eye injury. Terry’s status for Sunday’s game against the Oilers is unknown and it will be a big loss to the team if he’s unable to play. Anaheim is already trotting out a depleted lineup due to injuries and trades, and their starting goaltender’s play has been atrocious for the last few months. Edmonton isn’t a great hockey team by any means, but they have a lot of superstar talent. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should have no problem overwhelming a weak Ducks team. According to my model, the Oilers should be priced around -215 if Terry is not able to suit up.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals -125 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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