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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 4/24

April 24, 2022 08:28 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, April 23rd

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record: 108-93, + 5.22 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, April 24th

There are 11 games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Carolina Hurricanes (-160) at New York Islanders (+ 140)

Carolina picked up another come-from-behind win on Saturday, their second in a row, while the Islanders lost 5-3 to the Sabres in Buffalo. It was New York’s seventh loss in their last 10 games. The Hurricanes will go back to Antti Raanta on Sunday, and he will likely face off against Semyon Varlamov. The Hurricanes have a good chance to pick up another win on Sunday, but according to my model, they shouldn’t be priced any higher than -165, and that means there isn’t enough value to justify making a wager.

Notes: Islanders’ forwards Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anthony Beauvillier will not play in this game.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-260) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 220)

Pittsburgh can’t catch the New York Rangers, but they can stay in front of the Washington Capitals, and out of a wild card spot. But with Casey DeSmith starting on Saturday in the Penguins’ win over the Red Wings, there’s a good chance that Louis Domingue starts on Sunday. Tristan Jarry is still out due to an injury, and the team must be careful not to burn DeSmith out before the playoffs. The Flyers are a bad hockey team that’s missing several players due to injury, but they’ve been off for a couple of days since snapping a six-game losing streak with a win over the Canadiens in Montreal. Philadelphia’s opponents have covered the puck line in 11 out of their last 18 games, but that will be tough for the Penguins to do with a goaltender who has started one big league game this season. He’s been putting up solid numbers in the AHL, but he’s a below average NHL goaltender. According to my model, the Penguins shouldn’t be priced any higher than -265.

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 115) at Florida Panthers (-135)

Florida pulled off their 29th comeback win of the season on Saturday versus the Maple Leafs, while the Lightning defeated the Predators by a score of 6-2. The starting goaltender matchup for this game will almost certainly be between Spencer Knight and Andrei Vasilevskiy, but nothing has been confirmed. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced around -140. I’ve tried to account for the fact that they have nothing to play for, as they’ve got the Atlantic Division locked up and it looks like they’ll win the Presidents’ Trophy now, too. If this game was in the middle of the season, I would have priced the Panthers slightly higher.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 100) at Washington Capitals (-120)

I don’t feel great about this bet. The Capitals haven’t defeated the Maple Leafs yet this season, losing both games by a combined score of 12-6, but Washington has been playing well and Erik Kallgren’s .882 save percentage on the season suggests that the Capitals might even have an edge in goal. I expect Vitek Vanecek to start this game, as Toronto has chased Ilya Samsonov, but I’m going to scale back my bet size a bit because that hasn’t been confirmed. The Capitals are the fifth best team on offense since March 1st, which means they should be able to hang with the Maple Leafs, and with Toronto playing their sixth game in nine days, my model estimates that betting the Capitals at -110 or better is a value bet. Unfortunately, the line moved while I was finishing the report and I am not able to recommend a bet now that the consensus line has moved to -120.

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