NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 4/17

April 17, 2022 08:29 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, April 16th

There was just one recommended bet on Saturday, and it was a winner, as the Washington Capitals easily covered the puck line with an 8-4 win over the Canadiens in Montreal.

Record:

106-92, + 4.52 units, 2.2 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, April 17th

There are six games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Florida Panthers (-350) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 290)

The Panthers have won nine games in a row, and 18 of their last 21, while the Red Wings have won just six out of their last 24 games dating back to March 1st. Panthers’ backup goaltender Spencer Knight hasn’t started since April 9th, though, and I’m going to play it safe and assume he’ll be in goal on Sunday against the Red Wings. Florida has a better chance of winning this game if Sergei Bobrovsky is in goal, but I am going to assume the coaching staff will be looking to get him some rest before the playoffs. Detroit is the worst team in the Eastern Conference, and Florida is the best, but since the road team’s moneyline odds have already moved from -300 to -350, it would be wise to wait until the team announces a starting goaltender before taking a position. If Knight is confirmed, the game line could snap back, and if that happens, bettors that chased the early steam would be left with a bad number.

San Jose Sharks (+ 230) at Minnesota Wild (-260)

Minnesota forced overtime in St. Louis on Saturday, but they couldn’t complete the comeback. There’s a good chance they’ll pick up two points today, though. The Wild are missing a couple of key players in Matt Dumba and Jordan Greenway, but both players are regarded as day-to-day and there’s a chance that one or both could be ready for Sunday’s game against the Sharks. The Wild have one 12 of their last 16 games, and three out of their four losses came in overtime, so they’ve been in just about every game they’ve played over the last month. San Jose, meanwhile, has lost nine games in a row heading into Sunday’s matchup, and they’ll likely be without defenceman Erik Karlsson. However, according to my model, the Wild should be priced around -275, and that means there isn’t enough value to justify laying the favorite.

St. Louis Blues (-115) at Nashville Predators (-105)

Both St. Louis and Nashville were in action on Saturday, and they each chose to roll out their starting goaltenders, Ville Husso and Juuse Saros. That means we’ll almost certainly see Jordan Binnington and David Rittich between the pipes on Sunday, and that tilts the scales in the road team’s direction. Binnington hasn’t been good for a while now, but neither has Rittich, and the Blues are a stronger team overall. St. Louis has been red hot, winning eight games in a row and 10 of their last 11, and their offense is a big reason why. The Blues have scored at least four goals in each of their last 11 games, which works out to 4.9 goals per 60 minutes. Only the Maple Leafs and Panthers have been better on offense during that stretch. According to my model, the Blues should be priced around -125 if Rittich starts for the Predators, which I think he will.

Pick:

St. Louis Blues -115

New York Islanders (+ 175) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-200)

I’m glad that I won’t have to talk about how the Maple Leafs play down to weaker teams for much longer, but last night was another example. Sure, Toronto picked up the win the Senators in Ottawa, but they trailed 3-1 and had to win the game in overtime. It’s not all on the Maple Leafs, as these weaker teams seem to raise their game when they play Toronto, but this phenomenon is something that bettors must be concerned about whenever they are heavy favorites like they are on Sunday. The Islanders are likely going to start Ilya Sorokin, while the Maple Leafs will turn to Jack Campbell, and while the former isn’t exactly rested, they didn’t play on Saturday like the Maple Leafs did. My model prices the Maple Leafs at around -210.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

St. Louis Blues -115

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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