NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 3/6

March 6, 2022 11:47 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, March 5th

The Panthers easily covered the puck line with a 6-2 win over the Red Wings, but the Bruins gave up a goal with three seconds left on the clock and failed to win the game in regulation. What would have been a two-unit day turned into a small loss.

Record:

85-73, + 2.8 units, 1.7 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, March 6th

There are eight games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Los Angeles Kings (-175) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 155)

Buffalo is coming off back-to-back wins over the Toronto Maple Leafs and Minnesota Wild, but the Los Angeles Kings will likely put an end to the winning streak on Saturday. According to my model, a fair line for this game is around -180 in favor of the road team. Dustin Tokarski will start in goal for the Sabres.

St. Louis Blues (-130) at New Jersey Devils (+ 110)

The Blues fell to the Islanders by a score of 2-1 on Saturday. Jordan Binnington was in goal for the loss, and Ville Husso is expected to start on Sunday. David Perron did not play and is questionable heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Devils due to an illness. It’s unclear who New Jersey will start in goal, but assuming it’s John Gillies, the Blues should be priced around -115, according to my model. The Devils are better off now that they’re healthy, but goaltending is still a big issue, and this is a team that has lost 12 of their last 16 games. The Blues are a mediocre team, but Husso has been great this season and they have a better chance of winning the game.

Update: Perron will be back in the Blues' lineup.

Dallas Stars (+ 125) at Minnesota Wild (-145)

Minnesota is missing Matt Dumba, Mats Zuccarello and Jordan Greenway, but the latter two players are listed as day-to-day, so I haven’t ruled them out for Sunday’s game against the Stars. Dallas is hoping that Tyler Seguin and Miro Heiskanen will be available for the game on Sunday, and both players will be game-time decisions. If both players are in the lineup, and Kaapo Kakhonen gets the start for Minnesota, this game should be lined at -140 in favor of the Wild. The team has not been good as of late, losing eight of their last 12 games, and without Greenway, Zuccarello and Dumba, it’s hard to justify pricing them any higher.

New York Rangers (-105) at Winnipeg Jets (-120)

Connor Hellebuyck will start in goal for the Jets on Sunday. Winnipeg has lost six of their last 10 games and they don’t have much of a chance of making the playoffs this season. Sunday marks the start of a four-game road trip for New York, and Igor Shesterkin will likely get the first start. This game is priced like a coinflip and rightfully so. The Rangers are the superior team, and they have an edge in goal, which is not something that many teams can say when facing off against Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is priced, and as a result, I don’t have any interest in it from a betting perspective.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-240) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 200)

Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to be back between the pipes for the Lightning on Sunday, while Marc-Andre Fleury will start for the Blackhawks. Chicago fell to the Flyers on Saturday, with Kevin Lankinen in goal.  According to my model, the Lightning should be priced around -250, and therefore, I won’t be taking a position on either side in this game.

Seattle Kraken (+ 250) at Carolina Hurricanes (-300)

Antti Raanta was in the starter’s crease at practice on Sunday morning and he will be between the pipes when the Hurricanes host the Kraken. Seattle fell to the Capitals by a score of 5-2 on Saturday despite getting two of their best forwards, Jared McCann and Jaden Schwartz, back in the lineup. Not having Frederik Andersen in goal reduces the Hurricanes chances of winning the game, but they still have a slight rest advantage over a bad team. This is the third game in four days for the Hurricanes, so they aren’t rested, but Seattle is obviously at a disadvantage playing two games in two nights with travel. According to my model, the Hurricanes should be priced around -320. Raanta has been solid this season, but there isn’t enough incentive to bet on them on Sunday.

Ottawa Senators (+ 250) at Vegas Golden Knights (-300)

Vegas has been bad since losing Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone to injury, again, and not even Jack Eichel can save them. Sure, they will likely win the game against the Senators on Sunday but laying -300 on the home team is a terrible bet. The Senators are one of the worst teams in the league, and they have only picked up three wins in their last 12 games. They still don’t have Drake Batherson in the lineup, either, which partly explains why they’ve been so bad on offense lately. According to my model, the Golden Knights should be priced at around -245 if Robin Lehner is in the crease.

San Jose Sharks (+ 145) at Anaheim Ducks (-165)

San Jose was embarrassed 8-0 on home ice on Saturday, and on Sunday, goaltender Zachary Sawchenko will make his first start this season in what will be just his fifth NHL game. The undrafted goaltender hasn’t picked up a win yet, and his numbers in the American Hockey League suggest he’s not going to amount to much of an NHL goaltender. It’s unclear who will start for the Ducks, which makes this game tough to price, but they shouldn’t be priced any lower than -175. If John Gibson ends up starting, I will consider laying the favorite if the game line doesn’t move a lot in the meantime. Check back later for an update.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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