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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 3/27

March 27, 2022 08:30 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Saturday, March 26th

A small bet on the Lightning to cover the puck line at + 120 lost, but the two bigger bets were winners, as both the Bruins and Flames won their games.

Record:

98-82, + 8.02 units, 4.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, March 27th

There are eight games scheduled for Sunday, and just like Saturday, I’m kicking things off by laying a couple of favorites.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) at New York Islanders (+ 135)

Brian Elliott was played a fine game for the Lightning on Saturday in Detroit, but Tampa Bay needed overtime to win because they were only able to put one past Alex Nedeljkovic. Scoring goals won’t get any easier on Sunday, as they’ll be up against Ilya Sorokin and the Islanders, but this is a tough spot for the home team and Andrei Vasilevskiy will be in goal for the road team. New York is coming of a 6-3 loss to the Bruins in Boston on Saturday, and this will be their sixth game in nine days. The Islanders has won eight of their last 12 games, but almost all those wins came against non-playoff teams, and I think the market has been putting too much stock into that. The Lightning have lost six of their last nine, but they snapped a three-game losing streak with the win in Detroit. Still, the Bruins have overtaken them in the standings, and if the playoffs were to start today, they’d have to open the playoffs in Boston. The Lightning players can’t be happy with where their game is at, and bettors shouldn’t be either, but this is still a top-10 team that’s capable of being the best team in hockey. My model estimates that Tampa Bay will win the game approximately 65 percent of the time, which means their odds should be closer to -185.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning -155

Buffalo Sabres (+ 230) at New York Rangers (-270)

Alexandar Georgiev could be in goal for New York on Sunday when they host the Sabres. The Rangers has won five of their last seven games, but Georgiev and his .899 save percentage and his -2.8 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) are a big step down from the type of goaltending the team is used to getting from Igor Shesterkin. Buffalo has also won five of their last seven games, and the Sabres have shown that they still a lot of fight left in them. They’re a bad hockey team, but the Rangers are the weakest team in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. I’ll consider taking the dog later in the day if head coach Gerard Gallant does decide to go with Georgiev in this game, assuming the odds don’t move a lot in the meantime.

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