NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 3/27

March 27, 2022 08:30 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, March 26th

A small bet on the Lightning to cover the puck line at + 120 lost, but the two bigger bets were winners, as both the Bruins and Flames won their games.

Record:

98-82, + 8.02 units, 4.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, March 27th

There are eight games scheduled for Sunday, and just like Saturday, I’m kicking things off by laying a couple of favorites.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) at New York Islanders (+ 135)

Brian Elliott was played a fine game for the Lightning on Saturday in Detroit, but Tampa Bay needed overtime to win because they were only able to put one past Alex Nedeljkovic. Scoring goals won’t get any easier on Sunday, as they’ll be up against Ilya Sorokin and the Islanders, but this is a tough spot for the home team and Andrei Vasilevskiy will be in goal for the road team. New York is coming of a 6-3 loss to the Bruins in Boston on Saturday, and this will be their sixth game in nine days. The Islanders has won eight of their last 12 games, but almost all those wins came against non-playoff teams, and I think the market has been putting too much stock into that. The Lightning have lost six of their last nine, but they snapped a three-game losing streak with the win in Detroit. Still, the Bruins have overtaken them in the standings, and if the playoffs were to start today, they’d have to open the playoffs in Boston. The Lightning players can’t be happy with where their game is at, and bettors shouldn’t be either, but this is still a top-10 team that’s capable of being the best team in hockey. My model estimates that Tampa Bay will win the game approximately 65 percent of the time, which means their odds should be closer to -185.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning -155

Buffalo Sabres (+ 230) at New York Rangers (-270)

Alexandar Georgiev could be in goal for New York on Sunday when they host the Sabres. The Rangers has won five of their last seven games, but Georgiev and his .899 save percentage and his -2.8 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) are a big step down from the type of goaltending the team is used to getting from Igor Shesterkin. Buffalo has also won five of their last seven games, and the Sabres have shown that they still a lot of fight left in them. They’re a bad hockey team, but the Rangers are the weakest team in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. I’ll consider taking the dog later in the day if head coach Gerard Gallant does decide to go with Georgiev in this game, assuming the odds don’t move a lot in the meantime.

Colorado Avalanche (-135) at Minnesota Wild (+ 115)

Marc-Andre Fleury picked up a win over the Blue Jackets in his debut for the Minnesota Wild on Saturday, but Cam Talbot will likely be back between the pipes on Sunday. The Wild have won five games in a row and have been playing a lot better as of late. Of course, the competition wasn’t all that fierce, but the fact that the Wild’s expected goal share was 65 percent or better in all five games is impressive. Talbot has been awful this season, though, and the Wild are playing their second game in two days. Colorado has had one day off, but it’s unclear who will start in goal. The Avalanche don’t play again until Tuesday in Calgary, but there’s a chance that Pavel Francouz could get the start. He’s a solid backup, but he shouldn’t be expected to provide the Avalanche with above-average goaltending in the same way starter Darcy Kuemper does. Assuming Kuemper is in goal, laying the favorite at -135 is a value bet, as my model prices the game closer to -145 if that’s the case. Francouz started on Friday against the Flyers, and I think there’s a good chance that Kuemper will be in goal on Sunday, so I made a small bet on the Avalanche.

Pick:

Colorado Avalanche -135 (half size)

Florida Panthers (-105) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-115)

It was the same old story for the Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto dominated the Canadiens in Montreal but lost the game 4-2. The Maple Leafs owned 80 percent of the shot attempts (81-34) and 72 percent of the expected goals (6.35-2.5), but goaltender Jake Allen didn’t give in. It’s par for the course for the Maple Leafs though, and nobody is surprised that things ended up the way they did. Rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren was in the crease for Toronto on Saturday and the team confirmed that Petr Mrazek would be back in the net on Sunday against Florida, who are also playing their second game in as many days. The Panthers fell into an early 3-0 hole against the Senators in Ottawa on Saturday, but they battled back to win the game 4-3 in a shootout. This offered a great in-game betting opportunity as the Panthers were nearly 4/1 on the moneyline, and sportsbooks were taking -110 on a 2.5 goal spread for a minute or two. Sergei Bobrovsky was in goal on Saturday, and if I had to guess, he’ll be in the crease again on Sunday. Bobrovsky hadn’t played since March 10th, and the team might want to give him another start. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced around -110 if Bobrovsky is in goal, but backup Spencer Knight has been playing well as of late, and the Panthers’ odds shouldn’t be priced any worse than even money.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Tampa Bay Lightning -155

Colorado Avalanche -135 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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