NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 3/13

March 13, 2022 07:06 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, March 11th

The Hurricanes covered the puck line in the final minutes of the game, and the Flames dominated the Red Wings on their way to a 3-0 win. Unfortunately, Brian Elliott ended up in the crease for the Lightning and they lost 4-1. Recommended bets went 2-1 for a tiny loss of 0.05 units.


91-77, + 4.77 units, 2.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, March 12th

There are 10 games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (+ 110) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-130)

Carolina picked up a 3-1 win over the Flyers on Saturday while controlling over 60 percent of the shot attempts and 65 percent of the expected goals. The Hurricanes have put together some strong performances as of late, but the team has also played a lot of hockey since the All-Star break. In fact, only three teams have played more than 16 games. Their offense has been scoring about 0.5 goals less on a per 60-minute basis than they were prior to the break, but they’re still the second-best team on defense. Of course, Frederik Andersen has been a big part of that, and he played on Saturday, but Antti Raanta also been providing the Hurricanes with above average goaltending. Raanta has saved the team approximately 10 goals above expected according to Evolving Hockey and he will likely get the start against the Penguins on Sunday. Tristan Jarry is expected to be between the pipes for the Penguins, and if that’s the case, the current game line is fair.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-300) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 250)

The third and final outdoor game of the NHL season is the 2022 Heritage Classic. The Maple Leafs and Sabres will go head-to-head at Tim Hortons Field in Hamilton, Ontario. Hamilton is about an equal distance between the Buffalo and Toronto, if I’m not mistaken, so I’m sure fans of both teams will be making the trip. The Sabres are listed as the home team, but as I’ve said in the past, there isn’t really any evidence to suggest that the home team has much of an edge in these situations. This will be the 35th outdoor game since the first Heritage Classic held in Edmonton, Alberta back in 2003 and the home team has a win rate of 44 percent. The Maple Leafs’ goaltending has not been up to snuff, and they’ve been struggling against lesser teams (like the Sabres) for a while now. My model estimates that Toronto will win the game approximately 76 percent of the time, and thankfully that doesn’t translate into a big enough edge to warrant a bet.

Notes: Petr Mrazek and Craig Anderson will be the starting goaltenders.

Nashville Predators (+ 140) at Minnesota Wild (-160)

The Predators fell into an early hole against the Blues on Saturday, but they battled back and knotted things up at 4-4. The Blues eventually pulled ahead, though, and added a couple of empty-net goals to win 7-4. The Wild, meanwhile, are coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Blue Jackets a couple of nights back, and this will be their third game in four days. Minnesota has played a lot of hockey since the All-Star break, and they’ve struggled, only winning five of 16 games. The Predators have struggled too, though, and David Rittich is expected to start on Sunday. If that’s the case, -160 is fair.

Vegas Golden Knights (-165) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 145)

Jakob Voracek suffered a knee injury on Friday, and he will not be in the lineup when the Blue Jackets host the Golden Knights on Sunday. Boone Jenner is also out week-to-week due to an injury. Patrik Laine also suffered an injury, but there is hope that he will be able to play. Laine is regarded as a game-time decision. Both Columbus and Vegas are playing their third game in four days, but the Golden Knights are doing so with their backup goaltenders. Elvis Merzlikins will start in goal for the Blue Jackets. The Golden Knights have failed to score more than two goals in nine out of 14 games since the All-Star break, and they’ve lost 10 of those games. Vegas is already without Mark Stone and Reilly Smith, but they might also be without Max Pacioretty, who was not able to complete Friday’s game in Pittsburgh. I’ll finalize my projection when more information becomes available, but I do feel comfortable saying that I’m either going to take the dog or pass on the game altogether. Vegas might get their offense going against Columbus, as the latter ranks 30th in goals against per 60 minutes, but I don’t think they should be priced any higher than -145 if Pacioretty isn’t in the lineup. It sounds like Laine will be good to go, so now the only thing to figure out is whether Pacioretty is going to play or not.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 115) at St. Louis Blues (-135)

St. Louis scored a big 7-4 win over the Predators on Saturday, but they’ll be playing their sixth game in nine days on Sunday when the Jets come to town. Jordan Binnington will likely be between the pipes for the Blues, but Winnipeg’s starter is unknown. It will probably be Connor Hellebuyck, but backup Eric Comrie has been playing well this season and he could get another start. It’s unlikely, but it’s possible. If Hellebuyck is in goal, the Blues should be priced closer to -110.

Updates: Hellebuyck is going through his starting routine at practice, but nothing has been confirmed yet by the team.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 120) at Philadelphia Flyers (-140)

I probably could’ve copied and pasted what I wrote about laying chalk on the Canadiens prior to their game against the Kraken on Saturday, because that’s how I feel about laying -145 on the Flyers on Sunday. Both teams are trash, and while Montreal might have something to play for, even after all their hard work, they still grade out as the worst team by expected goals according to Evolving Hockey. The Flyers rank 25th, which isn’t much better, but they do have a slight rest advantage and they’ve been keeping games close. Philadelphia should be priced around -150 with Carter Hart between the pipes.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 145) at New York Islanders (-165)

John Gibson will likely get the start for Anaheim in New York on Sunday, as Anthony Stolarz was in goal the Ducks’ 2-1 loss to the Devils on Saturday. Trevor Zegras did return to the Ducks’ lineup, but Ryan Getzlaf and Jakob Silfverberg are still listed as day-to-day. Ilya Sorokin will start in goal for the Islanders on Sunday, and according to my model, the Islanders should be priced around -150.

Florida Panthers (-190) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 170)

More details to come.

Calgary Flames (+ 140) at Colorado Avalanche (-160)

The Flames defeated the Avalanche in Colorado nine days ago by a score of 4-3 in overtime. Dan Vladar was in goal, and it looks like he might get another chance to take down the league’s top team on Sunday. Jacob Markstrom could get the start, though, after he picked up a 3-0 shutout win over the Red Wings in a game in which he didn’t see very many shots. This is the sixth game in nine days for Calgary, while the Avalanche have had two days off. However, captain Gabriel Landeskog is out with an injury and that’s a big blow to the home team. I might have interest in taking the dog if the situation calls for it, but I’m going to hold off until there’s more information.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 135)

Andrei Vasilevskiy will start on Sunday, and the Lightning might be tired, but they are in a great position to bounce back against the Canucks. Tampa Bay knows how to bring in the second half of a back-to-back, and my model estimates that they should be priced closer to -155. I’m not going to over analyze the Lightning’s recent struggles. I’m simply going to trust that the price my model generated is accurate and bet on the Lightning to win the game.


Tampa Bay Lightning -140

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Tampa Bay Lightning -140

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.



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