NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 2/27

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, Feb. 26th

Toronto covered the puck line in a wild 10-7 win over the Red Wings. The Maple Leafs led 7-2 after the second period, but the Red Wings got within one goal in the third period before the Leafs pulled away.

Record:

79-70, + 2.35 units, 1.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, Feb. 27th

There are eight games scheduled for Sunday, but there’s not no incentive to place bets today. It’s been a grind to earn more than a couple of units of profit this season, and after five long months, I’m going to continue to practice patience.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Edmonton Oilers (+ 175) at Carolina Hurricanes (-200)

The Oilers picked up a win over the Panthers in Florida on Saturday, but it was undeserved. Bettors shouldn’t focus too much on that, though, as the Oilers are likely aware of their poor play and should put forth a better effort on Sunday. They will be tired, though, and with Mike Smith starting in goal, my model estimates that they will only win the game about 32 percent of the time. That converts to a fair line of around -210.

Notes: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) will not play Sunday. Frederik Andersen (CAR) will start in goal.

Buffalo Sabres (+ 240) at Dallas Stars (-280)

Buffalo has lost five games in row. They’ve only picked up six wins in their last 21 games (since Jan. 1st) and have allowed 3.75 goals per 60 minutes during that stretch. Laying -320 on the Stars is not something I would recommend doing, though. The Sabres are bad, but Dallas is a mediocre team and my model estimates that they will win the game approximately 73 percent of the time, which means -270 is a fair price.

Notes: Jake Oettinger will start in goal for the Stars.

St. Louis Blues (-170) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 150)

After winning five of their last six games, the Blues might be looked at as a short favorite by some bettors. However, my model suggests that the true price of this game is around -155 in favor of St. Louis. Marc-Andre Fleury will start for the Blackhawks, and Jordan Binnington is expected to get the start for the Blues, but there’s a chance that they could go back to Ville Husso.

Winnipeg Jets (-170) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 150)

Just when it looks like the Jets are going to turn things around, they reminded us that they probably don’t have what it takes. They’ve lost their last three games in a row, and now they’re in Arizona to take on the Coyotes. Sure, they’ll probably win the game, but I wouldn’t lay -170 with someone else’s money, let alone my own. According to my model, the Jets should be priced around -170 if Connor Hellebuyck is in goal, but there’s a chance that Eric Comrie could get a start here. Winnipeg is still missing forward Nikolaj Ehlers, and the injury list has grown to include Cole Perfetti, Andrew Cop and Dylan DeMelo.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-185) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 165)

Elvis Merzlikins will back be between the pipes for the Blue Jackets on Sunday, putting an end to J-F Berube’s four-game stretch as the starting goaltender. Zach Werenski will not be back in the lineup, though, as the team announced that he will miss his third game in a row. This will be the third game in four days for Columbus, while the Penguins are playing their second game in as many days. Tristan Jarry earned a shutout-win over the Rangers on Saturday, so Casey DeSmith will likely get the start in goal on Sunday in Columbus. The Penguins opened at -225, but now sit at -185. That’s closer to where the line should be.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 115) at New York Rangers (-135)

The Rangers were on the wrong side of a shutout, as they lost by a score of 1-0 to the Penguins on Saturday, and there’s a good chance that Alexandar Georgiev gets the start on Sunday. Thatcher Demko will likely be in goal for the Canucks, and as a result, the Rangers should be priced around -120. The Canucks aren’t a strong team, but neither are the Rangers, and if Igor Shesterkin sits this one out, the Canucks will have the edge in goal.

New York Islanders (-105) at Anaheim Ducks (-115)

The Islanders have blown any chance they had of making up ground in the Eastern Conference standings. They’re 5-10 straight up over their last 15 games and they’ve dropped seven of their last 10 games. Their underlying metrics have improved, but the team’s 28th ranked offense has held them back. The Ducks are struggling as well, but according to my model, they should be priced around -115, so they should win the game more often than the Islanders.

Notes: Ilya Sorokin will start in goal for New York.

Seattle Kraken (+ 105) at San Jose Sharks (-125)

San Jose didn’t provide James Reimer with any support in Saturday’s 3-1 loss to the Bruins, as the Sharks were outshot 37-16. The team stated that Reimer could start again on Sunday, and since he wasn’t the reason the Sharks lost, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case. Seattle is still missing Jaden Schwartz, and Jared McCann has been placed on injured reserve, so goals should be harder to come by for the team that ranks 27th on offense. The Sharks rank 25th on offense, and they’ll be tired, but they’re better defensively and the Kraken grade out as the lesser team in just about every category. The game should be close, and there’s nothing egregious about how it’s been priced by the market.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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