NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 2/20

February 20, 2022 09:30 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Saturday, Feb. 19th

A win in overtime? I, for one, am shocked. The Bruins never trailed in the game, but they gave up the tying goal late in the third period and found themselves in overtime with the Senators. I was really starting to sweat until David Pastrnak launched a rocket of a shot into the back of the net to win the game.

Record:

75-68, + 0.4 units, 0.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Sunday, Feb. 20th

There are eight games scheduled for Sunday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (+ 110) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-130)

There’s a lot at stake in this game. The Penguins and Hurricanes are currently tied with 70 points, but the latter has three games in hand on the former. Vincent Trocheck is questionable to play on Sunday as he is still being evaluated for an upper-body injury. Both teams rank among the top-10 on offense, and grade out as top-five teams on defense, but the Hurricanes have an edge in both categories. And, as good as Tristan Jarry has been this season, Frederik Andersen has been better. This should be a close game, and there’s nothing egregious about how it’s been priced by the market. My model estimates that the Penguins will win the game somewhere between 52 and 53 percent of the time depending on what the Hurricanes lineup looks like.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 230) at New York Islanders (-270)

Andrew Hammond will start in goal for the Canadiens. Like J-F Berube, Hammond hasn’t started an NHL game since 2017-18, but unlike Berube, Hammond has a .923 save percentage over the course of 56 games. That’s not to say that his inclusion into this game gives the Canadiens an edge, but it’s worth noting that Hammond has manage to overperform throughout his short time as an NHL goaltender. According to my model, the Islanders should be priced around -235. It’s entirely possible that my model could be overrating the Canadiens, underrating the Islanders or both, but I’m not going to worry about it too much. There are a lot of games to bet and splitting hairs over whether my prediction on this game is accurate seems like a waste of time. The Islanders have been playing better hockey as of late, and the Canadiens haven’t exactly inspired me with their play.

Florida Panthers (-240) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 210)

Sergei Bobrovsky will start in goal for the Panthers on Sunday, while Marc-Andre Fleury will likely be in the crease for the Blackhawks, who are playing their third game in four days. Chicago has only earned three wins in their last 12 games. Florida hasn’t been good on the road this season, which has made laying big prices a bit tough when the Panthers are away from home. Florida has won seven of their last 10 road games, though. Jonathan Toews took part in Friday’s optional skate, but he is not expected to return to the lineup on Sunday. The Blackhawks are a bad hockey team, and the Panthers probably won’t have much trouble getting past them, but according to my model, the Panthers will win the game approximately 71 percent of the time, which means a fair line is around -245.

New York Rangers (-200) at Ottawa Senators (+ 180)

Anton Forsberg was the starter versus the Bruins on Saturday, but Filip Gustavsson will get the start on Sunday versus New York. This will be the Senators sixth game in nine days, and their eighth game in the last 14 days. The Rangers will have three days off after this game, and that means that head coach Gerard Gallant should have an easy time deciding whether to start Igor Shesterkin in goal or not. The Senators are still missing three of their best players, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot, and the Rangers obviously have a huge rest advantage here. New York should be priced closer to -230, and therefore, I’m laying -200 on the favorite. New York isn’t a strong team, but this is a good spot for them to get a win, and they’re a value bet on the moneyline up to around -210.

Pick:

New York Rangers -200

Buffalo Sabres (+ 130) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-150)

The Sabers fell to the Avalanche by a score of 5-3 on Saturday, and now they’re in Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets. Craig Anderson will likely start in goal for Buffalo, while J-F Berube is confirmed as the starter for Columbus. Berube hasn’t played in the NHL since 2017-18, and he has posted a .898 save percentage over the course of 34 games in the big league. As a result, my model now prices the Blue Jackets at around -135. The line moved very quick on the Berube news, and I couldn’t take the Sabres fast enough. That’s fine by me, though.

Dallas Stars (-250) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 220)

Arizona had a 3-1 lead on the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday, but they allowed four unanswered goals and lost 5-3. The Coyotes will host the Stars, and according to my model, the road team should be priced around -240.

Minnesota Wild (-110) at Edmonton Oilers (-110)

This will be the fifth game in seven days for the Oilers, and their second game in as many days, after they defeated the Jets in Winnipeg on Saturday by a score of 4-2. The Oilers dominated the game, and won their fifth in a row, but Sunday’s matchup against the Wild will be a tough one. Minnesota is missing Matt Dumba, and it’s unclear who they will start in goal, but the Oilers shouldn’t have odds better than 50 percent. According to my model, the Wild should be priced around -110 if Kaapo Kakhonen is in the crease. The game ought to be priced closer to a coin flip if it’s Cam Talbot, though. Mikko Koskinen was in goal for the Oilers on Saturday, which means Mike Smith is likely going to be guarding the cage on Sunday.

Vegas Golden Knights (-160) at San Jose Sharks (+ 140)

Since Jack Eichel made his debut, the Golden Knights have gone 0-1-1. Not helping matters is the fact that in order to get Eichel into the lineup, the team had to place Mark Stone on long-term injured reserve. Robin Lehner hasn’t been playing either, so the Golden Knights have had to rely on backup Laurent Brossoit. Lehner has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest. San Jose is a weak team. They’ve lost nine of their last 11 games, and they’ve scored two goals, or fewer, in seven of those games. Opponents haven’t been filling the Sharks’ net on the regular, but their offense has been so bad that they’ve had trouble winning games even when their goaltenders have played well. The Golden Knights have been shut out twice in their last three games, which means both teams will likely be searching for offense on Sunday. According to my model, the Golden Knights should be priced around -150.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

New York Rangers -200

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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