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Market Report Recap for Friday, Saturday, Jan. 22nd
It was a good week, but the good times came to an end on Saturday, as the Flames blew a 2-0 lead and fell to the Oilers in Edmonton. Calgary was the better team, and if not for some penalty trouble and puck luck, they probably would’ve picked up a win. Last night was a good example of how even the worst goaltenders can win a game every now and then. The Flames owned 60 percent of the expected goals and shot attempts, but Mikko Koskinen stood on his head.
Record: 68-59, + 3.25 units, 2.6 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Sunday, Jan. 23rd
I had hoped that there would be value on the Penguins, as a few retail shops posted favorable odds overnight, but the line started to move at those sportsbooks well before the market makers put their lines up. It might be a quiet day.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Winnipeg Jets (+ 200) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-230)
The Winnipeg Jets lost yet another road game on Saturday in Boston, and now they must play the Penguins in Pittsburgh. The Jets have played the last seven games on the road, and this will be the final stop before they head home to Winnipeg for a couple of games. It’s unclear who they will choose to start in goal, as backup goaltender Eric Comrie hasn’t played since Dec. 10th, and he was just recently cleared of COVID. Just to be safe, I’m going to assume that Connor Hellebuyck will get another start. Tristan Jarry will likely be between the pipes for the Penguins, who grade out as the second-best team by expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. My model prices this game around -215 in favor of the Penguins. However, if Eric Comrie starts, the Penguins will have an even better chance of winning. Unfortunately, the game line is already -230 at most shops, though, which means even if Comrie does start, the game line will have already moved too much.
Notes: Blake Wheeler returned to the Winnipeg Jets lineup on Saturday, but Nikolaj Ehlers will miss the next several games due to injury.
Ottawa Senators (+ 110) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-130)
The Senators jumped out to a 2-0 lead in Washington on Friday, but they ended up losing 3-2 in overtime. Matt Murray was in goal for the loss, and the Senators will turn to Anton Forsberg on Sunday. Elvis Merzlikins will start in goal for the Blue Jackets, who are playing their third game in four days. Columbus has been playing poorly, but they are a stronger team than the Senators, and according to my model, the Blue Jackets should be priced around -135. Most shops have them listed at -130 currently, though, so I won’t be laying the favorite unless -125 or better is widely available.
Los Angeles Kings (-130) at New Jersey Devils (+ 110)
New Jersey scored seven goals against the Hurricanes on Saturday and won the game by a margin of three. Carolina was tired, though, and neither team had an NHL-caliber goaltender in the crease. The Kings will be a tough test for the Devils, as MacKenzie Blackwood has been playing like one of the worst goaltenders in the league this season. He’s a player that could very well rebound in the future, but I don’t have any confidence that he will do so this season. However, according to my model, Los Angeles should be priced somewhere between -120 and -130, depending on who starts in goal. The Kings will play the Rangers in New York on Monday.
Florida Panthers (-240) at Seattle Kraken (+ 200)
The Panthers are playing their third game in four nights, but so are the Kraken. I wouldn’t put much stock into the fact that the Kraken have a win over the Panthers this season, either. The Panthers were shorthanded in that game and Spencer Knight was in goal. This time around, Sergei Bobrovsky will likely be in the crease, and although Florida might be missing Sam Bennett, the Kraken are also missing Jaden Schwartz, Jamie Oleksiak and goaltender Chris Driedger, who was in goal the last time these two teams met. Philipp Grubauer will probably be between the pipes for the Kraken on Sunday. If Bobrovsky does indeed end up in the crease, I will look to make a bet on the Panthers to cover the puck line at around even money. The Kraken have just three wins in their last 16 games.
St. Louis Blues (-165) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 145)
I was a bit surprised to see that my model didn’t peg the Blues as a value bet. The Canucks are missing several key skaters (Bo Horvat, J.T. Miller and Connor Garland) and both goaltenders (Thatcher Demko and Jaroslav Halak). They almost upset the Panthers on Friday with Spencer Martin in goal, but ultimately lost in extra time. Martin hadn’t started a game in five years, and it’s unclear if he’s going to get another start, as Michael DiPietro should also be available to start. St. Louis is healthy, which is a good thing, but this is the first half of a back-to-back (they play the Flames on Monday) and that makes it difficult to predict which goaltender will start. Ville Husso has played a lot better than Jordan Binnington this season, albeit in half as many games, and the gap between the two isn’t as wide as it once was. According to my model, the Blues should be priced somewhere between -150 and -160.
Bet Summary
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended play prop bets currently.