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Market Report Recap for Saturday, Nov. 6th
Saturday wasn’t a very eventful day. I picked up a (half size) win when the Senators and Lightning went over six goals, but that was it for the day. Player prop bets split 2-2 for a loss of 0.2 units.
14-15, -4.6 units, -13.8 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -113
61-54, -2.35 units, -1.7 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -114
Market Report for Saturday, Nov. 6th
There are five games on Sunday, each with their own level of intrigue.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings
Saturday’s game between the Golden Knights and Canadiens was something else. Montreal held a 20-1 advantage in shots on goal heading into the second period and led by a score of 2-0. However, The Golden Knights somehow found themselves with three goals on their next six shots, and eventually won the game. But, boy, did they look bad doing it. Sometimes winning and losing is nothing more than a consequence of having good or bad luck, and the Golden Knights were on the right side of the randomness on Saturday. Laurent Brossoit will likely start in goal for Vegas today, and Thomas Greiss is expected to start for the Red Wings, since Robin Lehner and Alex Nedeljkovic both played on Saturday. Forward Dylan Larkin has missed some time due to personal reasons. There there’s no timetable on his return. According to the Red Wings, Larkin is day-to-day, but I would consider him questionable for Sunday’s matchup against Vegas. By my estimation, the betting market has this game priced correctly, and I don’t see any value laying -125 with the Golden Knights, or taking the Red Wings at + 105.
Nashville Predators (-110) at Chicago Blackhawks (-110)
After the Blackhawks 1-9-2 start, something had to give, and it did. Head coach Jeremey Colliton, and two assistant coaches, were relieved of his duties on Saturday. Derek King, who was in the American Hockey League with Rockford, has been promoted to the position of interim head coach. Now, I know that betting on teams with a new coach, especially in the first game, is an angle that bettors love. However, even If I give the Blackhawks’ rating an arbitrary bump, my forecast for this game isn’t much different from that of the betting market. I thought that Filip Forsberg’s absence would mean I would end up betting the Blackhawks at -110, but I was wrong. After handicapping this game, I’ve determined that Chicago should only win about 53 percent of the time, which means a fair line should be somewhere around -113 in favor of the home team.
St. Louis Blues (-165) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 145)
This game is a mess. On the St. Louis side, handicappers must account for the fact that Ryan O’Reilly, the team’s best player, is expected to be back in the lineup. However, simultaneously, bettors must also be aware that Torey Krug and Brayden Schenn, two very important players, are listed as day-to-day. Krug is in COVID protocol, while Schenn is dealing with an upper-body injury. Both players move the needle. Assessing the current state of the Ducks, however, is even tougher, as several Ducks are listed as questionable for Sunday as well. Rickard Rakell out week-to-week with an upper-body injury, so we probably won’t see him take the ice on Sunday, but there are big question marks around the likes of Jakob Silfverberg, Trevor Zegras and goaltender John Gibson, who are all listed as day-to-day. Given what we’ve seen out of these teams so far this season, I don’t foresee a situation in which I would lay the favorite, but if the Ducks get Zegras and Gibson back, and Krug and Schenn are out, I’ll almost certainly make a small wager on the dog.
New York Islanders (-105) at Minnesota Wild (-115)
Both teams played on Saturday, and each earned hard-fought victory, but maybe the market has forgot about Semyon Varlamov, the man that was projected to be the starting goaltender, before Ilya Sorokin went on a tear. Varlamov will be back in the crease on Sunday, according to head coach Barry Trotz, and we’ll probably see Kaapo Kakhonen get the start for the Wild. Cam Talbot hasn’t been very good since joining the Wild, but Kakhonen has been much worse. The Wild haven’t had to face tough competition yet, either, as they’ve been on easy street in terms of their schedule. And on aggregate, the Wild have been outscored 3.35 – 2.97. The Islanders, on the other hand, have generating almost three goals (2.91) and allowing less than two (1.99) goals on a per 60-minute basis. These two teams are very similar, but because both teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, with travel, the Islanders have a much better goaltender (even if the Wild decide to go back to Talbot) and grade out as the superior team in most areas. I took the dog at + 102 this morning, but I still think there’s some value in laying -105 on the Islanders to win this game.
Note: Mats Zuccarello should be back in the Wild lineup today.
Pick: New York Islanders -105 (half size)
Dallas Stars (-115) at Vancouver Canucks (-105)
The Stars aren’t as bad as they were to start the season, but they’re probably not as good as a lot of people (including me) thought they might be. A lot of this has to do with the fact that their goaltending is suspect, and I know I can speak for a lot of other hockey bettors when I say that they would feel a lot better about this team if Jake Oettinger was getting starts. But he’s not. I don’t know which goaltenders will be guarding the nets on Sunday, but I assume it’s going to be Braden Holtby and Thatcher Demko. Dallas has had two days off since their big overtime win in Calgary, and the Canucks are on short rest after playing Friday, so it’s not a great for the home team, but they’ll still pull out a victory almost 50 percent of the time. In other words, I look at this game as a coin flip with negative expected value. The Stars will win the game approximately 51.5 percent of the time. So, in my opinion, you would be doing the sportsbook a favor by taking a side in this game at the current price. I would consider betting the Stars if they somehow became an underdog, but it’s more likely that the Canucks gets to that point. I’ll consider taking the home underdog if the price is north of + 110 and nothing has changed in terms of my handicap.
Roope Hintz Over 0.5 Points + 110 (DraftKings)
Hintz has one point (an assist) in 10 games, which goes to show just how unlucky he's been. Sportsbooks have adjusted, too. Back on October 14th, when the Stars opened their season on the road in New York against the Rangers, Hintz was priced at -140 to score a point. Now, after a horrible start to the season, he's priced at + 110 at DraftKings, but this is still a top line player we're talking about, and he plays on the top power play unit. The Propagator estimates that Hintz will get a point on Sunday in Vancouver almost 53.5 percent of the time, which means the over should be priced around -115. Let's hope Hintz breaks out of his slump tonight with a point.
New York Islanders -105 (half size)
Roope Hintz Over 0.5 Points + 110 (DraftKings)