NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 10/17

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator and Follow me on Twitter.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Saturday Oct. 16th

The Puck Propagator is running like a well-oiled machine as player prop bets delivered another profitable night. However, my overall betting record is looking rough. But it’s important to remember just how fast things can change, and that’s what I continue to tell myself.

One good outing can bring a bettor in my situation back from the dead. I’m not starting from scratch, either, so it’s easy to view this as one bad stretch in the middle of a long, successful run and not a sign of things to come.

Records 

Game Lines: 1-7, -6.75 units, -74.2 percent ROI, Avg. Odds 101

Player Props: 18-13, + 2.05 units, 5.2 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -116

Overall: 19-20, -4.70 units, -9.6 percent ROI

Market Report for Sunday, Oct. 17

With only one game on tap, Sunday is a day to reset for bettors like myself as we get set to head into the first full week of regular season hockey.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Dallas Stars (-135) at Ottawa Senators (+ 115)

Both the Senators and Stars played (and lost) road games on Saturday, each bringing their records to 1-1. Neither team has looked particularly good, either, but the Stars have once again been hit by the injury bug. Jason Robertson is out (did not travel with the team) and John Klingberg is out again after missing Saturday’s game with an injury. Anton Khudobin is confirmed to start in goal.

On the flip side, the Senators could start Filip Gustavsson (drafted 55th overall in 2016) and that intrigues me. According to Evolving Hockey, the 23-year-old goaltender played in nine games for Ottawa last season and posted a .933 save percentage and saved the team approximately three and a half goals above expected.

There’s also a chance Brady Tkachuk could return to the Sens’ lineup in time to play the Stars, but according to head coach D.J. Smith, it’s more likely that Tkachuk plays on Thursday at home against the Sharks. I’m going to rule Tkachuk out for Sunday, though, just to be safe. However, now that Klingberg has been officially ruled out, I'm going to take a risk and assume Gustavsson starts. Take the dog.

Pick:

Ottawa Senators + 115

Player Props:

Tyler Seguin Under 0.5 Points -120 (DraftKings)

The Stars forward hasn’t registered a point yet this season and while he’ll always be right in the thick of things, there’s no such thing as “being due”. Seguin was a point-per-game player for years prior to dropping off in 2019-20, so there’s a lot of uncertainty about the type of player he’ll be going forward. It doesn’t help that he missed all but three games last season. Regardless, the Propagator estimates that this bet will win far more than 55 percent of the time.

Summary

Early Bets:

Ottawa Senators + 115

Tyler Seguin Under 0.5 Points -120 (DraftKings)

Late Adds:

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