Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 112-110, + -6.65 units, -2.9 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Thursday, June 3rd
The Tampa Bay Lightning looked flat for the second game in a row, and I lost for the second time in a row betting on them. Fortunately, both were small, half-size wagers, but the Rangers have played extremely well in the series so far and it looks like they have found their game throughout these playoffs, as they’re playing their best hockey of the season. Anthony Cirelli was held to just one shot on goal, which means over 1.5 shots (-110) was a loser, too.
Market Report for Friday, June 4th
Let’s look at Game 3 of the Western Conference final from a betting perspective.
Colorado Avalanche (-125) at Edmonton Oilers (+ 105)
Colorado allowed the Oilers to attempt 72 shots in Game 1, which almost led to them blowing a four-goal lead, but they really cleaned things up in Game 2. Edmonton attempted just 48 shot attempts, which is below league average. Of course, Pavel Francouz was perfect, but like Darcy Kuemper, he gets a lot of help from his teammates. For example, Connor McDavid was held to just two shots on goal for the second time in a row, and just the third time in the playoffs. McDavid was averaging seven shot attempts per game heading into the Western Conference final, but he only has seven attempts in two games against the Avalanche. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar have defended McDavid well, and they’ve provided a lot of offense. But Colorado’s second forward line has done a lot of heavy lifting as well. Nazem Kadri, Mikko Rantanen and Artturi Lehkonen have outscored the Oilers 3-1 at even strength in two games.
Now that Edmonton is home, head coach Jay Woodcroft might choose to reunite McDavid and Draisaitl. They connected on two goals in Game 1, playing nearly 17 minutes together at even strength, but played mostly apart in Game 2. Draisaitl has been outscored 9-1 at even strength without McDavid on the ice, but the duo has outscored opponents 21-9 when playing together in the playoffs. He might be able to shelter Darnell Nurse, a bit, but they don’t have depth on the blue line. It's obvious that Nurse is battling an injury, and Edmonton has been outscored 6-1 when he’s been on the ice in the series. The Oilers are going to need all the stars to align for things to go their way in this series, and because of that, it’s tough to be optimistic about their chances. Both teams have learned a lot over the last month, as neither has made it this far in the playoffs before, but the Avalanche have more to work with. Edmonton has a better chance of stealing a game at home, but my model estimates that Colorado will win approximately 58 percent of the time. I am running it back with two player props that split in Game 2. Nazem Kadri and Zach Hyman over 3.5 shots at -105 and + 105.
Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Nazem Kadri Over 3.5 Shots -105
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots + 105
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Nazem Kadri Over 3.5 Shots -105
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots + 110
Record: 122-122, -13.70 units, -4.77 percent ROI