NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 6/18

June 18, 2022 08:56 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.

Record: 114-112, -6.15 units, -2.7 percent ROI

Market Report for Wednesday, June 15th

Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final was highly entertaining, as the Lightning forced overtime after erasing a two-goal deficit and forced overtime. They fell short, though, and therefore, the moneyline bet was a loser.

Market Report for Saturday, June 18th

Let’s look at Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final from a betting perspective.

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 135) at Colorado Avalanche (-155)

I was happy with the small amount of closing line value that I accumulated by betting on Tampa Bay at + 140 in Game 1, after it was announced that Brayden Point would be returning to the Lightning’s lineup. But now that it’s obviously reflected in the market, as most sportsbooks are offering odds around + 130 on the Lightning in Game 2.

The Lightning’s streak of bouncing back after a playoff loss ended in the Eastern Conference final with back-to-back losses to the New York Rangers, but they won four games in a row after that, so I would say confidence is still high that this team can adjust and be better in Game 2. I won’t be recommending a bet on the Lightning, but if you are going to bet on the road team, shop around before doing it, as shops like Circa Sports are offering better odds than the rest.

The Lightning generated just 23 shots on goal in Game 1, their lowest shot total of any game yet in these playoffs, and they were held to below two expected goals for the first time in the playoffs as well. Colorado generated 80 shot attempts, which will be hard to do on a game-to-game basis but heading into the series I expected them to carry the play and nothing I saw in Game 1 has led me to believe otherwise. I recommended a bet on Mikhail Sergachev to register at least two blocked shots at + 105 in Game 1, and because it won easily (he had four blocks) the odds are now -130 on over 1.5 blocked shots, so that ship has sailed. I will recommend Val Nichushkin over 2.5 shots on goal, but It’s chalky at -160. Nichushkin registered six shots on goal in Game 1 and has done so in 10 out of 15 playoff games. He leads the playoffs in chances off the rush, according to SportLogiq, and plays on the top line with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog and volume shooting is nothing new for him. He came into the playoffs having gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 18 out of his last 23 regular season games. I would not recommend betting -175 at DraftKings (it was -155 yesterday).

Player Prop Pick via BetMGM Sportsbook:

Val Nichushkin Over 2.5 Shots -160

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Val Nichushkin Over 2.5 Shots -160

Record: 126-127, -13.5 units, -4.56 percent ROI


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