NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 5/7

May 7, 2022 07:57 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Friday, May 6th

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record: 111-101, + 1.9 units, 0.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, May 7th

There are four games on Saturday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Florida Panthers (-205) at Washington Capitals (+ 175)

Washington forward Tom Wilson missed Game 2, and it’s unclear if he will be available for Game 3. Washington now has home-ice advantage for the next two games, but they’re still big underdogs even though they played well over the first two games. According to my model, the betting market is too low on the Capitals, even if Wilson is out, but I’m going to hang back and wait for more information. If he can’t play, we could see the game line move in Florida’s favor, and if I’m going to make a bet that will lose more often than win, I want to ensure I’m getting the best of it. The Panthers have been the better team at even strength, but overall, Washington has been able to hang with Florida, and I don’t think anybody should be counting them out just yet.

Colorado Avalanche (-245) at Nashville Predators (+ 195)

As I mentioned prior to Game 2, goaltender Connor Ingram is an unknown quantity, and there was a possibility that he could come in and give the Predators better goaltending than David Rittich, a known quantity, could. That’s exactly what happened, too, as the Predators were able to take the Avalanche to overtime. It was an encouraging performance, but Nashville still lost the game and they’re now down 0-2 in the series. There was a rumour that Juuse Saros might be able to play in Game 3, but now it has been confirmed that he will not be in the lineup.

New York Rangers (-120) at Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 100)

Both teams are missing key players, but the Penguins are in worse shape, with Rickard Rakell and Brian Dumoulin both questionable heading into Game 3. Louis Domingue will start in goal again, which doesn’t bode well for the Penguins chances. Pittsburgh has been the better team through two games, owning more than 60 percent of the expected goals, but with a third-string goaltender manning the crease, and injuries to players that typically play important roles on the team, things are spiralling for Sidney Crosby’s Penguins. Igor Shesterkin has been on his game, and he’s going to be hard to beat if that continues.

Calgary Flames (-155) at Dallas Stars (+ 135)

Three goals in two games. The Stars and Flames are really living up to their reputations as defensive teams, but the latter has more on offense than they’ve shown. Jake Oettinger has been great, but something’s got to give. The betting market is giving the Stars way too much of a home-ice advantage in Game 3, too. My model estimates that Calgary should be priced around -185, and therefore, I’m laying the favorite at -165 or better. At even strength, Calgary has owned about 60 percent of the shot attempts through two games, and roughly 55 percent of the expected goals. The Stars were a strong team on home ice in the regular season, but the Flames have been great on the road all season they should be able to get the job done in Dallas. There’s a lot of noise when it comes to wins and losses. The Stars owned about 51.5 percent of the even strength goals that were scored on their home ice this season, while the Flames scored roughly 59 percent of the goals on the road.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -165

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames -165

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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