NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 5/28

May 28, 2022 10:04 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Friday, May 27th

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record: 112-109, + -5.4 units, -2.4 percent ROI

Market Report for Saturday, May 28th

The Hurricanes have a chance to move on to the Eastern Conference Final on Saturday, but they’ll have to win a game on the road for the first time in these playoffs if they want to avoid playing in another Game 7.

Carolina Hurricanes (-105) at New York Rangers (-115)

Carolina desperately needs to close out the series after winning Game 5 by a score of 3-1. It’s been a tight matchup, and Igor Shesterkin has been hard to beat. Carolina played on of their best games of the playoffs on Thursday, owning roughly 70 percent of the expected goals at even strength, but the Rangers have been playing some of their best hockey, too. I think too much has been made of Carolina’s losing streak on the road. They had a tough matchup in the first round, and the Rangers are a tough team to beat when Shesterkin is on his game like he has been in this series. It’s a small sample size, and the Hurricanes played good enough in both road games in this series that I don’t think there should be any concern about how they play in Game 6. The Hurricanes have outshot the Rangers at even strength in three straight games, but this game, like the previous five, will be decided by goaltending. Antti Raanta has held his own despite facing off against a goaltender that’s in a higher weight class, but he’ll have to outplay Shesterkin at least one more time. The two teams have each scored just nine goals in the series, and while the winning team has covered the puck line in all but one game, the series has helped pull the average margin of victory back closer to where it was in past years. My stance hasn’t changed since Game 4, though, and I’m only looking to take the Hurricanes if they are available at even money or better. I do have one player prop bet, though.

Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Andrei Svechnikov Over 2.5 Shots -135

Svechnikov registered three or more shots on goal in 64 percent of his games (50 out of 78) in the regular season and looks to have turned his game around after a very slow start to the series. He scored his first goal in six games on Thursday and has registered 13 shots on goal on 24 attempts in his last three games. He had 11 shot attempts in Game 5.

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