NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 5/21

May 21, 2022 10:00 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Friday, May 20th

Another blown lead. Calgary was in the driver’s seat, leading 3-1, but after another incredible performance by Connor McDavid, and a 5-3 Oilers comeback, the series is heading back up the highway to Edmonton tied 2-2. The post season from hell continues, but at least Johnny Gaudreau went over 3.5 shots on goal.

Record: 112-108, + -4.20 units, -1.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, May 21st

Lets’ look at things from a betting perspective.

Colorado Avalanche (-170) at St. Louis Blues (+ 150)

St. Louis had no business taking Game 1 to overtime, but Jordan Binnington was great, making 51 saves. He was good again in Game 2, but as expected, the Blues were better as a team. It would’ve been hard to play as poorly as they did in Game 1, as the Avalanche owned 70 percent of the even strength shot attempts, but I didn’t expect them to play so well in Game 2 and they did. Things were much more even, but of course, my model suggests that the Avalanche are a far superior team, so it’s unlikely that I’m going to find value betting on the underdog in this series. My projection has been in line with the market, and that hasn’t changed, as my projected price for this game is -165 in favor of the road team. I expect Colorado will be better in Game 3, but things started to turn for them in last year’s playoffs around this time, and they must be mindful of that. The Avalanche are a great team, but they can’t let their foot off the gas.

There are a few player props that I like, though. Ryan O’Reilly has been on fire in the playoffs. He’s scored six goals in eight playoff games, and rightfully so, because he’s generating a lot of shots on goal. He’s registered at least three shots in six out of his last eight games, and he’s put up nine total shots in two games versus Colorado. I’m betting O’Reilly to go over 2.5 shots on goal at -120. I’m also going back to the well on Devon Toews, who has been a monster in these playoffs, but is coming off probably his worst performance so far. Toews generates a lot of shots, and gets a lot of touches throughout the game, so he should be involved in Colorado’s scoring opportunities. It didn’t work out last time, but hopefully Toews will find himself on the scoresheet when this game is over.

Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Ryan O’Reilly Over 2.5 Shots -120

Devon Toews Anytime Goal + 380 (half size) and Over 0.5 Assists + 140 (half size)

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