NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 5/14

May 14, 2022 08:53 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Friday, May 13th

The Flames dominated the game early but could not beat Jake Oettinger. They lost 4-2. This run I’ve been on has been truly unbelievable, but it’s nothing I haven’t encountered before. Still, it would be nice if something would go my way.

Record: 111-106, + -3.35 units, -1.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, May 14th

Game 7 times three. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Boston Bruins (+ 115) at Carolina Hurricanes (-135)

Boston has been the better team at even strength in this series, but they haven’t gotten the offense to match their underlying play. That changed in Game 6, as the Bruins outscored the Hurricanes 3-1 at even strength and won the game. Of course, in order to win the series, they’ll have to do something that they haven’t done yet in this series, and that’s win a game on the road. In fact, no team has won a road game in this series, and that really adds to the old saying that a series doesn’t start until a road team wins. The Hurricanes still don’t have Frederik Andersen, their starting goaltender, and the Bruins have overcome a lot of adversity with Hampus Lindholm and Charlie McAvoy each missing time throughout the series. According to my model, this game should be priced like a coin flip, and therefore, I’m backing the Bruins to win Game 7 at + 115. I’m already holding Boston to win the series at even money, and + 170, but I’m comfortable taking the dog here in a winner-take-all contest.

Pick:

Boston Bruins + 115

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 105) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-125)

Goal scoring has exploded to rates we haven’t seen in decades, and the Maple Leafs are the best offensive team that the Lightning have ever faced. Momentum hasn’t carried over game-to-game, and the fact that Toronto is the first team that the Lightning haven’t been able to defeat in back-to-back games has to be worth something. Toronto has given the defending champs their biggest playoff test yet, and the amount of offensive firepower is a big reason why. They’re only the second team to take Tampa Bay to 7 games in the last three years and a win tonight will crush the narrative that they can’t get it done when it matters most. I’ve got the Lightning to win the series from before Game 1 but given how the Maple Leafs have played in this series, my model doesn’t like the Lightning quite as much as it did two weeks ago. Every championship team has a shelf life, and maybe we’re watching the Lightning expire right before our very eyes. Or maybe they’re going to come through in the clutch and keep their dream of a Stanley Cup three-peat alive. Either way, I’m likely not going to be making a pre-game bet here, but I will consider jumping in live if the situation calls for it. The Maple Leafs haven’t quit in games, even when it’s seemed like things were trending heavily in the Lightning’s favor, and their resilience is encouraging heading into Game 7.

Los Angeles Kings (+ 180) at Edmonton Oilers (-220)

With Connor McDavid on the ice in this series at 5-on-5, the Oilers have owned 61 percent of the shot attempts and scored 69 percent of the goals. Without him, the Oilers have only generated 47 percent of the shot attempts and own just a 38 percent share of the goals. McDavid was on the ice for 42% of the Oilers total ice time in Game 6, up from 33% over the first five games. The Oilers power play has been converting around 39 percent of the time, but Edmonton only received one power play opportunity in Game 6, and they can’t rely on that in Game 7. Expect McDavid to play a ton of minutes at 5-on-5 tonight, as that seems to be the solution to the problems they’ve been having with the Kings. The others Oilers’ superstar, Leon Draisaitl, registered nine shots on goal in the first two games, but the Oilers’ sniper has only hit the net seven times in the four games since. He’s still been very productive, scoring five goals with a shooting percentage just over 30, but he averaged over three shots per game during the regular season and he hasn’t gone over that mark in the last four games. There’s concern that he’s dealing with a nagging injury, and if that’s the case, Draisaitl deserves a lot of credit for finding a way to make an impact. The Kings have a chance, but my model suggests there isn’t quite enough value to back them in Game 7. If the stars align, we could be on the cusp of witnessing a best-of-seven series between the Oilers and Flames, and we’d all be better off for it. Please pray to the hockey gods that it happens.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins + 115

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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