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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 4/9

April 9, 2022 07:56 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Friday, April 8th

There were no recommended bets on Friday, but I hope some of you took the opportunity to bet the Florida Panthers in-game when they were down 3-1 to the Buffalo Sabres.

Record:

103-87, + 7.97 units, 4.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, April 9th

It’s a busy Saturday in the NHL, with a dozen games on the schedule.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Washington Capitals (+ 125) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-145)

Sidney Crosby missed Thursday’s game against the Rangers in New York due to a non-COVID illness, and his status heading into Saturday is unknown. Assuming he does play, the Penguins should be priced around -160, according to my model. Pittsburgh has lost six of eight, which is concerning, but I believe they’re a much better team than Washington. The Capitals are one of the NHL’s best teams, but the Penguins grade out several percentage points better than them in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goals. Washington goaltender Vitek Vanecek has been decent this season, but Tristan Jarry has been great for the Penguins. I could justify taking an early stand here, because I assume Crosby is going to play, but -150 isn’t a great bet and the Penguins’ captain obviously moves the needle a lot. In other words, if I bet the Penguins now, and Crosby doesn’t suit up, it would be a disaster of a bet.

Notes: Capitals’ forward Connor Sheary is questionable due to an illness.

Florida Panthers (-130) at Nashville Predators (+ 110)

The Florida Panthers once again erased multi-goal deficit to win on Friday in Buffalo, but Saturday’s matchup will be tougher. The Panthers come into Nashville as a road favorite, and rightfully so, but since it is their second game in as many days, their chances of winning aren’t as good as they would be under normal circumstances. Spencer Knight is expected to start in goal for Florida on Saturday, and that means the Predators will have an edge in goal, assuming Juuse Saros is between the pipes. This is the first half of a back-to-back for Nashville, though, as they will travel to Pittsburgh for a game on Sunday, and that makes it difficult to predict who they will start in goal. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced around -130 if that’s the case, but Florida’s chances of winning will increase significantly if the Predators end up starting backup David Rittich.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 330) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-400)

There’s no question that Toronto is an elite team. They’ve shown that they’re capable of hanging with, and defeating, the best teams in the league. However, they haven’t fared well in games where they are a heavy favorite. There have been 30 instances this season where the Maple Leafs have had moneyline odds of -200 or higher, and they’ve gone 18-12. That might not sound bad, but the odds suggest that they should have won more than 70 percent of those games. Now, I believe that bad luck has contributed to their poor record, but the notion that Toronto has a penchant for playing down to weaker opponents is concerning. The Canadiens have taken two out of the three meetings this season, but Toronto probably deserved better results. The last time these two teams met up, the Maple Leafs dominated the game, owning 70 percent of the shot attempts and expected goals, but lost 4-2. This will be Toronto’s fourth game in six days, and while my model does suggest they should be a heavy favorite, there’s no value in laying -400.

Calgary Flames (-230) at Seattle Kraken (+ 195)

This will be the ninth time this season that the Flames have come into a road game with moneyline odds of -175 or higher, and they’ve won the previous eight. Not only that, but they’ve covered the puck line in each game, and I recommend betting on them to do just that in Seattle on Saturday. Dan Vladar started for the Flames in San Jose on Thursday, and that means there’s a good chance that they will go back to Jacob Markstrom here. If that’s the case, the Flames should be priced much higher than they are now. According to my model, Calgary’s odds should be around north of -300, and at + 120 or better, the Flames are a good bet to win by at least two goals. The Kraken are playing in their home building, but that hasn’t given them an edge this season, and the market is overestimating their chances of winning this game.

Pick:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, + 120

Colorado Avalanche (-130) at Edmonton Oilers (+ 110)

The Avalanche are in Edmonton to take on the Oilers on Saturday after they picked up a 5-4 overtime win in Winnipeg on Friday. Colorado is missing two of their top three scorers, as Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog are both out indefinitely, but they should be ready for the playoffs. Edmonton has had a lot of success lately, winning 12 of their last 15 games, but most of their wins have come against non-playoff teams or fringe playoff teams, and that’s been a theme all season long. The Oilers have a 35 percent win rate against the NHL’s top-10 teams (according to the standings) this season, and that simply isn’t good enough for a team that fancies themselves a contender. This is a tough spot for Colorado but starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper is rested and they still deserve to come into this game as a favorite. There’s nothing egregious about how this game is being priced, though, as my model estimates that the road team will win the game approximately 58 percent of the time.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, + 120

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