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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 4/23

April 23, 2022 07:20 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Friday, April 22nd

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record: 108-93, + 5.22 units, 2.5 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, April 23rd

It’s the last Saturday of the regular season and there are 12 games scheduled. There are a few teams playing the second half of a back-to-back, but there are 14 teams that are playing their first game in two days, as there are 11 games scheduled for Sunday. It’s not unusual for me not to have many bets at the end of the season, and there hasn’t been much line movement, which is a good indication that there’s not a lot of value on the board.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Pittsburgh Penguins (-280) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 240)

Evgeni Malkin is set to return to the Penguins’ lineup after serving his four-game suspension, and while the injury to starting goaltender Tristan Jarry is still a big concern, backup Casey DeSmith is coming off an impressive 52-save performance. The Penguins shutout the Bruins 4-0 on Thursday, but it was just their fifth win in their last 14 games. But as I’ve said before, this team is a lot better than their recent record. I’m skeptical that DeSmith is the answer, but then again, it was only a couple of years ago that I was doubtful Jarry was going to pan out. In fact, at the time, DeSmith had been the better goaltender, albeit in a small sample size, so maybe there’s something there.

Carolina Hurricanes (-240) at New Jersey Devils (+ 200)

Both Carolina and New Jersey will be in action again on Sunday. The Devils will host the Red Wings, while the Hurricanes will visit the Islanders. New Jersey returned home from a five-game road trip and lost 5-2 to the Buffalo Sabres, while the Hurricanes are coming off a come-from-behind win over the Winnipeg Jets. Both teams have had one day off. There’s a chance that Devils’ goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood could return to the crease this weekend, as the team suggests that he will play before the end of the season, but there hasn’t been any more information. Carolina is still without starting goaltender Frederik Andersen, and that means we might see Pyotr Kochetkov, this weekend. Kochetkov has been dubbed the goaltender of the future by people around the team, and while he wasn’t expected to make his debut this season, the Hurricanes had no choice but to bring him to backup Antti Raanta.  Carolina selected him in the second round of the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, and he’s had impressive numbers everywhere he’s played. I’m interested to see the 22-year-old in action, and I’m also interested to see how betting markets react if he’s named the starter of either game this weekend.  

New York Rangers (+ 115) at Boston Bruins (-135)

With Alexandar Georgiev starting the last game, one would think Igor Shesterkin is a lock to start on Saturday against Boston. The Bruins’ lineup is a little tougher to figure out. The Bruins will play the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday, and it sounds as if David Pastrnak and Hampus Lindholm might be ready to return by then. Of course, that means they aren’t expected to play against the Rangers. Linus Ullmark is also expected to return from injury this weekend and make a start, but it’s unclear whether that will be Saturday or Sunday. The Bruins have scored just two goals per 60 minutes (third worst in the league) since Pastrnak’s injury, and that’s not a good recipe for success against one of the best goaltenders in the league. Still, my model prices the Bruins around -140 on home ice, assuming Shesterkin and Jeremy Swayman are the starting goaltenders.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 130) at Florida Panthers (-150)

Not even Auston Matthews could have stopped the beatdown that the Maple Leafs received at the hands of the Lightning in Tampa Bay on Thursday. Toronto lost the game 8-1, and the Lightning didn’t even have Brayden Point in the lineup. The Maple Leafs have been riding high lately, but that was a wakeup call, and according to head coach Sheldon Keefe, Matthews looked good at the end of practice and could return on Saturday after missing three games due to a minor injury. Jake Muzzin’s status is still up in the air, though. Jack Campbell will almost certainly be in the crease for the Maple Leafs, and while he needs to play better, he has a better save percentage than Bobrovsky since returning to the lineup. These are the top two offensive teams in the league, but bookmakers know that as well as you and I. The Panthers play again tomorrow against the Lightning, so that makes it tough to predict who will start, but Spencer Knight looks to have turned his season around, while Bobrovsky has been below average. Both teams, but especially the Panthers, can erase multi-goal deficits in an instant, and given what we’ve seen in this matchup during the previous two games (20 goals combined) there could be a great opportunity to get in on a side in-game. Neither team should feel safe with a lead in this game. The Panthers have come from behind to win a total of 28 games this season, while the Maple Leafs have done so 20 times themselves. My model prices this game at around -145 in favor of the Panthers if Auston Matthews is in the lineup, and the Maple Leafs’ odds will be even better if Jake Muzzin is back. However, it does make a difference which goaltender Florida decides to go with, and it looks like the market has done a good job of assessing this game.

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