NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 4/2

April 2, 2022 09:38 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Friday, April 1st

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record:

100-86, + 6.60 units, 3.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, April 2nd

It’s a relatively light Saturday in the NHL, with just nine games, and I don’t like much at first blush. I did take a small position on the Bruins to cover the puck line, but that’s it for the time being.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Florida Panthers (-220) at New Jersey Devils (+ 190)

Both teams are scheduled to play Friday and Saturday, and it’s unclear how the games will be distributed among the goaltenders. Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight will split the games for the Panthers, but the team hasn’t announced which goaltender will start on Saturday. However, the Devils activated veteran goaltender Andrew Hammond from injured reserve this morning and it looks like there’s a good chance that he will be in the crease against the Panthers. The Devils are coming off an embarrassing 8-1 loss to the Bruins, but they’ve been running rookie goaltender Nico Daws into the ground and Hammond should provide them with some stability at the position. Still, the Devils are in a tough spot-on Saturday, and the Panthers should be priced significantly higher than they are now if Bobrovsky is between the pipes.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 120) at Colorado Avalanche (-140)

Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon only missed one game due to an injury he sustained in a fight, but Nazem Kadri’s status is questionable heading into Saturday’s game against the Penguins as he did not skate with the team on Friday. Gabriel Landeskog Ryan Murray and Samuel Girard are already out with injuries and not having Kadri in the lineup would be a big blow to the team. The Avalanche are arguably the best team in the league, but the Penguins are also an elite team and the injuries level the playing field. If Kadri isn’t in the lineup, my model prices the Avalanche around -120.

Notes: Tristan Jarry and Darcy Kuemper are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 250) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-300)

The Lightning picked up a 5-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Friday, and now they’ll face off against the Montreal Canadiens in rematch from last year’s Stanley Cup Final. Andrei Vasilevskiy started on Friday, which means we’ll likely see Brian Elliott between the pipes on Saturday. The Canadiens are coming into this game shorthanded, as has been the case for most of the season. Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin and Jeff Petry are three important regulars and the Habs will be in tough without them in the lineup. Gallagher is the only player of the three that could possibly play on Saturday, but he was sporting a non-contact jersey at practice on Friday, so it seems unlikely. The Canadiens have just three wins in their last 12 games, and while their play has improved since Martin St. Louis took over as head coach, the team still grades out as one of the worst in the league when it comes to supressing shots. The Lightning will be tired, but I still expect them to dictate the pace of play. Tampa Bay’s chances of winning the game aren’t as good as they would be with Vasilevskiy in the crease, but Elliott has been fine this season. According to Evolving Hockey, Elliott allowed approximately 20 goals above expected in 2020-21, his last season with the Flyers. But the 36-year-old backup has saved his new team about one goal above expected in the 13 games he’s played. According to my model, the Lightning should be priced around -325, which doesn’t quite meet the threshold for a wager, but it’s close.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 200)

Goaltender Jack Campbell will make his first appearance since March 8th, and the Maple Leafs are hoping that he will be the type of player that he was when he first became a member of the team. The Maple Leafs have been on a bit of a run as of late, winning six of their last eight games, but a bad performance or two from Campbell could take the wind out of their sails. Toronto will travel to Florida following this game to play the Lightning and Panthers on back-to-back nights, and there are other tough stretches on what’s left of their schedule, so it’s going to be interesting to see how Campbell, and the Maple Leafs, do over the next several weeks. As far as Saturday’s game against the Flyers goes, my model estimates that the road team will win approximately 72 percent of the time, which converts to a fair moneyline of around -260.

Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 270) at Boston Bruins (-330)

After dropping a big game to the Maple Leafs at home, the Bruins responded with an 8-1 win over the New Jersey Devils. I don’t think the Bruins are going to turn into an offensive juggernaut overnight but putting up big numbers on the Columbus Blue Jackets is a reasonable expectation to have for the team. The Blue Jackets have lost five in a row, and 12 of their last 17, and they have allowed four or more goals in all but five of those games. Columbus is going to be without their best defenceman, Zach Werenski, and forward Boone Jenner is also sidelined. It’s unclear who the Bruins are going to start in goal, though, and while their decision won’t hurt their chances of winning all that much in the grand scheme of things, it does make a difference from a betting perspective. If Jeremy Swayman is in goal for the Bruins, the home team should be priced north of -400. I think Swayman will start, but because of the uncertainty, I’m only going to make a small wager.

Notes: Craig Smith missed Thursday’s game due to an illness.

Pick:

Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5, -140 (half size)

Minnesota Wild (+ 130) at Carolina Hurricanes (-150)

This is the first game of a back-to-back for the Wild, as they will be in Washington to take on the Capitals on Sunday, and Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to start in goal. Minnesota had won seven games in a row before losing Thursday’s contest to the Penguins in overtime, and they do have a win (3-2) over the Hurricanes in 2022, but even though it’s the latter’s fourth game in six days, my model still estimates that they will win the game about 62 percent of the time if Frederik Andersen is in goal. I might choose to lay the favorite later today, but not until the team confirms that Andersen is going to be starting.

St. Louis Blues (+ 210) at Calgary Flames (-250)

Edmonton defeated St. Louis in overtime on Friday by a score of 5-4. Jordan Binnington was in goal for the Blues, which means the Flames will have to face off against Ville Husso on Saturday. Calgary’s current odds (-250) are closer to what I was expecting if Husso had started against the Oilers, and therefore, my model suggests that the Flames are slightly overpriced. That doesn’t mean taking the dog is a value bet, though.

Notes: Jacob Markstrom is expected to start for the Flames.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5, -140 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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