NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 4/16

April 16, 2022 09:46 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Friday, April 15th

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record:

105-92, + 4.02 units, 2.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, April 16th

A week ago today, I had just eclipsed nine units of profit, but after a brutal week, I’m back down to around four units of profit. Saturday’s slate isn’t very appetizing, but I do have one small bet to start the day.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 105) at Boston Bruins (-125)

David Pastrnak and Hampus Lindholm skated on their own on Friday, but they did not attend practice and Bruins’ head coach Bruce Cassidy doesn’t expect either player to suit up on Saturday. The Bruins have lost four of their last five games, and their offense has only produced 2.2 goals per 60 minutes since Pastrnak’s injury. The Penguins have also been struggling, though, and Evgeni Malkin is not in the lineup due to suspension. According to my model, assuming Casey DeSmith is in goal for Pittsburgh, the home team should be priced around -130.

Notes: Linus Ullmark is dealing with an injury so Jeremy Swayman will be in goal for the Bruins on Saturday.

Minnesota Wild (-110) at St. Louis Blues (-110)

The Wild have won 12 of their last 15 games, but the Blues have been able to keep pace, winning nine of their last 10, and both teams are sitting with 98 points heading into Saturday. There isn’t a whole lot separating these teams, and the Blues have been a top-three team on offense all season long. Assuming the starting goaltenders are Marc-Andre Fleury and Ville Husso, my model estimates that the Blues will win this game approximately 53 percent of the time.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 105) at Edmonton Oilers (-125)

Vegas picked up a big win over the Flames in Calgary on Thursday, and now they’ll try to make it two in a row against the Oilers. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Golden Knights after the team opted to go with Logan Thompson the last time out. Robin Lehner could start on Saturday, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Thompson ends up between the pipes again. The Oilers just returned from a two-game road trip in which they lost 5-1 to the Minnesota Wild and defeated the Nashville Predators 4-0. Edmonton’s win rate since Jay Woodcroft took over as head coach is around 65 percent, but most of those wins came against weaker teams. Edmonton is a mediocre team that shouldn’t be viewed as a contender. According to my model, this game is a coin flip.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-270) at Ottawa Senators (+ 230)

The Maple Leafs penchant for playing down to weaker teams is a well-known phenomenon. They entered last Saturday’s game against the Canadiens with a 60 percent win rate in games where their moneyline odds are -200 or higher, and that hasn’t changed much after they narrowly defeated Montreal and followed it up with an embarrassing loss to the Sabres. Ottawa, meanwhile, has been putting forth some strong efforts, and their offense has been a lot better since forward Drake Batherson returned from injury back on March 26th. Of course, the Senators’ schedule was very light, and it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to hang with the Maple Leafs, who rank first on offense over that same stretch. This will be the tenth time that the Senators play a home game where their moneyline odds are + 180 or worse, and even though the team has a losing record, a bettor still would’ve made a profit if they had backed them in those games. According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -225.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 200) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-250)

Winnipeg’s season isn’t officially over, but it might as well be after a 6-1 loss to the Florida Panthers. The Lightning should win this game easily, but lately, they’ve been losing games that they should have won, so my confidence in the defending champs is not high. Mark Scheifele did not accompany the Jets on this road trip and according to my model, the Lightning should be priced around -260, assuming Andrei Vasilevskiy and Eric Comrie are the starting goaltenders.

Washington Capitals (-260) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 220)

Washington’s high-powered offense is in Montreal taking on the Canadiens on Saturday, a night after Montreal fell 3-0 to the Islanders on home ice. Carey Price made his season debut on Friday, and that means Samuel Montembeault will be in goal when the team hosts the Capitals. Washington has been scoring 3.8 goals per 60 minutes since March 1st, which is exactly how many goals the Canadiens have given up during that same time. Dmitry Orlov likely won’t suit up for Washington, but according to my model, there’s some value in backing the Capitals to cover the puck line at -105. Hopefully Washington is at their best after being at their worst in Toronto on Thursday.

Pick:

Washington Capitals Puck Line -1.5, -105 (half size)

Carolina Hurricanes (+ 110) at Colorado Avalanche (-130)

This is a marquee matchup, but I don’t have any interest in it from a betting perspective. The Avalanche still don’t have Gabriel Landeskog or Nazem Kadri in the lineup, and my model prices the game at -115 in favor of Colorado, as it is their third game in four days.

Notes: Frederik Andersen and Darcy Kuemper are expected to be the starting goaltenders.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 430) at Calgary Flames (-460)

After an ugly loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday, the Flames will try to clinch a playoff berth with a win over the lowly Coyotes on Saturday. The Flames have not been this big of a favorite at any other point in the season, so this is new territory for them, but the Coyotes have been in this situation a lot and it looks like they have hit rock bottom since losing Jakob Chychrun, Lawson Crouse and Clayton Keller to injury. Arizona has just two wins in their last 14 games and their opponents have covered the puck line in 11 of those games. The Coyotes have been scoring goals at a rate of 1.6 per game, which is by far the worst mark in the NHL, and they’ve been allowing approximately 4.4 goals. No team allows more shot attempts per game  than Arizona and the Flames should be priced around -500, according to my model.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals Puck Line -1.5, -105 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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