NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 3/5

March 5, 2022 08:44 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, March 4th

There were no recommended bets for Friday.

Record:

84-72, + 3.2 units, 2.0 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, March 5th

There are 10 games scheduled for Saturday, with a few early start times. I have one early bet, but there’s a good chance that something else will shake out later in the day, so check back for updates.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

St. Louis (-140) at New York Islanders (+ 120)

St. Louis is coming off a loss to the Rangers on Thursday, and Jordan Binnington is expected to start in goal against the Islanders on Saturday. New York has lost 12 of their last 18 games, and there haven’t been any signs that this team is going to improve down the stretch. They had been playing better, but that had a lot to do with the fact that they were facing off against a lot of below-average teams. St. Louis isn’t an elite team, and Binnington has been off his game this season, but they still deserve to be the favorite here. However, assuming Ilya Sorokin is in goal, the Islanders shouldn’t be priced any worse than + 130.

Updates: Anders Lee (NYI) and David Perron (STL) will not play on Saturday. Mat Barzal could return to the Islanders' lineup, though. He'll be a game-time decision.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 100) at Philadelphia Flyers (-120)

Kevin Lankinen will start for the Blackhawks on Saturday. He’s only played one game since Jan. 22nd, and he has an .887 save percentage on the season. Jonathan Toews is back with the team, though, and that must be factored in. There aren’t many situations where the Flyers should be a favorite, and with Martin Jones in goal, they should only be expected to win the game about 51 percent of the time.

Ottawa Senators (-120) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 100)

Scott Wedgewood will start for the Coyotes. More details to come.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 290) at Florida Panthers (-350)

Detroit managed to keep it close versus the Lightning on Friday, but an empty-net goal with two seconds left on the clock secured a 3-1 win for Tampa Bay. Now, the Red Wings are in Sunrise to take on the Panthers on the second half of a back-to-back. Sergei Bobrovsky is confirmed as the starting goaltender, which is the most important piece of information heading into this game. The Red Wings have lost 31 games so far this season, and 24 of those losses have been by a margin of at least two goals. Thomas Greiss should be in goal for the Red Wings on Saturday, too. According to my model, the Panthers should be priced closer to -500. I won’t be laying -330, though, as there is a big enough edge betting the Panthers to cover the puck line (-1.5 goals) at -145, but there’s a lot of wiggle room, as I believe that the price is very short. I would recommend betting the Panthers to cover the puck line at -155 or better.

Pick:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -145

Vancouver Canucks (+ 190) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-220)

Toronto is coming off an embarrassing 5-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres, but they obviously have a good chance to rectify that on Saturday when they host the Canucks. According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -235. The Canucks have won nine of their last 14 games, and they’ve scored at least four goals in seven out of their last 10 games, while the Maple Leafs have been playing .500 hockey, which is not up to their standard. I expect Toronto to get back in the win column on Saturday, but from a betting perspective, I’ll be looking for the game line to come down slightly before I bet on them to do so.

Notes: Jack Campbell will start in goal for the Maple Leafs. Thatcher Demko is expected to start for the Canucks.

Boston Bruins (-210) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 180)

Boston has been rolling winning six out of their last seven games, but the Blue Jackets have been hot too. Handicapping this matchup is going to come down to who starts in goal. Jeremy Swayman has been lights out for the Bruins, especially as of late, while the Blue Jackets might go with J-F Berube after Elvis Merzlikins took the loss against Los Angeles on Friday. Of course, there’s a chance that Linus Ullmark could get the start, and it’s also possible that Merzlikins gets another kick at the can. I’m going to play it safe for now and wait until either Berube or Swayman is confirmed before I strike. The Bruins should be priced north of -250 if Swayman and Berube are the goaltenders, but the odds would be much lower if it’s any other combination. Check back later for an update.

Updates: Elvis Merzlikins will start his second game in two days. Jeremy Swayman is expected to start for the Bruins. I am betting the Bruins to win in regulation up to -140.

Pick:

Boston Bruins Regulation -0.5, -140 

Seattle Kraken (+ 180) at Washington Capitals (-220)

Washington defeated the Hurricanes by a score of 4-0 on Thursday, ending a six-game losing streak on home ice. According to my model, the Capitals have about a 70 percent chance of earning another win on Saturday when they host the Kraken, who are still without two of their best forwards, Jared McCann (day-to-day) and Jaden Schwartz (week-to-week). The Kraken are coming off a win over the Nashville Predators after losing seven straight games. Seattle only has five wins over their last 15 games, and the Capitals have been bad, but with Vitek Vanacek back guarding the cage, and Anthony Mantha back in the lineup, they should win games at a higher rate going forward.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 200) at Edmonton Oilers (-240)

If the Montreal Canadiens can take out the mighty Calgary Flames, surely, they can get a win over the Edmonton Oilers, right? Well, maybe, but the big difference here is that Samuel Montembeault will be the starting goaltender, not Andrew Hammond. Montembeault has an .894 career save percentage, and he’s posted a .896 mark this season, which is well below average. The Oilers are without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi, but they should still win this game about 72 percent of the time, which translates to a fair line of around -260.

Nashville Predators (-160) at San Jose Sharks (+ 140)

Nashville has been struggling, winning just three times in their last 10 games, but the Sharks have been even worse. Several of the Sharks’ regulars are dealing with injury and illness, too. Nick Bonino, Jonathan Dahlen and Erik Karlsson are all questionable to play on Saturday for one reason or another. James Reimer is also out with an injury, and it’s unclear who will start in goal for San Jose because Adin Hill has been on the shelf for a while now. Hill did return to practice earlier this week, but whether he plays or not remains to be seen. According to my model, the Predators should be priced no lower than -160, assuming Juuse Saros is in goal, but depending on what the Sharks lineup looks like, they could reasonably be priced as high as -180.

Calgary Flames (+ 130) at Colorado Avalanche (-150)

If Thursday’s overtime loss to the Canadiens at home was a wakeup call, it couldn’t have come at a better time, as the Flames are in Colorado to take on the Avalanche. The Avalanche should be priced around -135, according to my model, and if the market continues to move toward the home team, there might just be an opportunity to take the dog. The Flames are respected by the market, though, after being disregarded for much of the season, so it’s tough to find value betting Calgary on a game-to-game basis. I certainly won’t be reaching against the Avalanche, either. I’ll consider taking the dog if their odds reach + 145 or better. The Flames hold an edge in several categories like shot share, expected goals and even goal share, but let’s not kid ourselves about who the superior team is. The Flames are a contender, but the Avalanche are arguably the best team in hockey.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -145

Boston Bruins Regulation -0.5, -140 

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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