NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 3/26

March 26, 2022 07:58 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Friday, March 25th

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record:

96-81, + 6.52 units, 3.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, March 26th

It’s a busy Saturday in the NHL, with a dozen games and a few early start times.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

New York Islanders (+ 160) at Boston Bruins (-180)

The Islanders have won eight of their last 11 games, but most of those wins came against non-playoff teams. It’s unlikely that they’ll pick up a win this weekend, though, as they’ll play Boston on Saturday and Tampa Bay on Sunday. Maybe it’s the Islanders’ recent success that has led the market to price the game the way it has, or maybe it’s the fact that Patrice Bergeron has not been officially cleared to play on Saturday, but either way, the Bruins are priced short. Head coach Bruce Cassidy is confident that Bergeron will be cleared in time for the game, and if that’s the case, my model estimates that the Bruins will win the game almost 70 percent of the time. That means the game line should be closer to -230 in favor of the home team. Boston would have better odds of winning the game if Jeremy Swayman was starting, but even with Linus Ullmark between the pipes, I’m comfortable laying the favorite at -180.

Update: As expected, Patrice Bergeron will return to the Bruins' lineup on Saturday.

Pick:

Boston Bruins -180

Tampa Bay Lightning (-240) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 210)

A set of back-to-back games this weekend against two of the best teams in the NHL (Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay) means that the Red Wings will probably be adding two more losses to their record. The team has lost 11 of their last 15 games and they have a record of 26-38 (straight up) on the season and they lost by two goals or more in 30 of those games. The Lightning have lost seven of their last 10 games, but they’ve been able to put away lesser teams, like the Red Wings, with relative ease. Tampa Bay is likely going to snap their three-game losing streak on Saturday, but how likely depends on who starts in goal. The Lightning are scheduled to finish up their road trip against the Islanders on Sunday, and Brian Elliott will almost certainly start one of the games. The puck drops at 12:30 p.m. EST so if the Lightning don’t announce a starting goaltender before noon, we’ll just have to wait and see if Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the team out for warmups or not. If he does, I’ll be taking a position on the Lightning, but even if Elliott does end up getting the start, I might still consider it depending on how the market reacts to the news.

Update: Brian Elliott led the Lightning out onto the ice for warmups and even though that's not what I wanted, I'm going to take the Lightning at + 120 or better to cover the puck line, but I didn't have to bet any at that number, because there's better available.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 + 120 (half size)

Florida Panthers (-240) at Ottawa Senators (+ 210)

Drake Batherson will return to the Senators' lineup on Saturday. He's their best forward, and he's been out since Jan. 25th. His return should give the team a big boost, but they are hosting the Panthers, though, and according to my model, the game is priced fairly.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 130) at Calgary Flames (-150)

Calgary took care of business on Friday with a 4-2 win over the Arizona Coyotes. The Flames dominated the game, particularly the later stages, and when it was all said and done, they had generated 66 percent of the shot attempts and almost 70 percent of the expected goals. If they can carry that type of performance over to Saturday’s game against the Oilers, the Flames should be in a good position to pick up another win and tighten their grip on the Pacific Division lead. There’s no telling who will start in goal, though, as starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom played on Friday. The logical assumption to make is that backup Dan Vladar will be between the pipes when the Oilers come to Calgary on Saturday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if head coach Darryl Sutter went back to Markstrom. The Oilers have won six of their last eight games, but each time the schedule toughens up, the Oilers seem to wilt. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has played one game since returning from an injury that kept him out for a month, but still, my model estimates that the Flames should be priced no lower than -170. The market has moved toward the road team and that has created an opportunity to lay the favorite at what I believe is a great price, regardless of which goaltender is in the crease come game time.

Update: Ouch. It's not too often that I take it on the chin like this. The consensus line on the Flames is now -135, as there is apparently a big syndicate on the Oilers. Being opposite of a sharp group doesn't rattle me, but the fact that I failed to read the market on a big bet does.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -150

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins -180

Calgary Flames -150

Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line -1.5 + 120 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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