NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 3/12

March 12, 2022 09:22 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, March 11th

The Penguins blew an early 2-0 lead but regained the lead and didn’t look back. Pittsburgh won the game 5-2 and I made two units. This bet had tons of closing line value, so it was nice to see it hit.

Record:

89-76, + 4.82 units, 2.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, March 12th

There are 10 games scheduled for Saturday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

St. Louis Blues (+ 115) at Nashville Predators (-135)

Blues’ forwards Pavel Buchnevich (concussion) and Tyler Bozak (illness) are questionable heading into Saturday’s game in Nashville. Head coach Craig Berube thinks that Bozak will be good to go, but it doesn’t sound like Buchnevich will be back, and that makes sense. Ville Husso is expected to start for the Blues, while Juuse Saros should be between the pipes for the Predators. According to my model, the Predators should be priced around -140.

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 255) at Carolina Hurricanes (-310)

Frederik Andersen has missed the last two games, and it doesn’t sound like the team is keen on rushing him back. Antti Raanta has been solid this season, and he’s coming off a shutout win over the Avalanche.

Updates: Goaltender Alex Lyon was sent back to the American Hockey League, which means Andersen is returning to the Hurricanes lineup and he will face off against the Flyers and Martin Jones on Saturday. I bet on the Hurricanes to cover the puck line at -130 or better.

Pick:

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -125

Chicago Blackhawks (-110) at Ottawa Senators (-110)

 

Anton Forsberg and Marc-Andre Fleury will be the starting goaltenders on Saturday. Ottawa defender Thomas Chabot will be a game-time decision, and if he suits up, the Blackhawks should priced around -110.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 125) at New Jersey Devils (-145)

Ryan Getzlaf, Jakob Silfverberg, Josh Manson and Trevor Zegras are all listed day-to-day with injuries. Nico Hischier will not be in the Devils lineup, but assuming the Ducks are going to be as shorthanded as it looks like they might be, there's nothing egregious about how this game is currently priced. However, if Zegras, or any of the other injured players return, the Ducks' chances of winning the game will improve.

Update: It looks like Zegras will be back in the Ducks' lineup, and if that's the case, the Devils should be priced around -120, assuming John Gibson is in goal. 

Seattle Kraken (+ 105) at Montreal Canadiens (-125)

As bad as the Kraken have been this season, I can't laying -125 on the favorite. In fact, I couldn't fathom backing the Canadiens at pick em' price. Not with Samuel Montembeault in goal. This game is a coin flip but unless the game line gets really out of hand, I don't think I will be taking the dog.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 320) at Boston Bruins (-340)

Jeremy Swayman and Karel Vejmelka will start in goal for their respective clubs on Saturday, and the Bruins will get defender Matt Grzelyk back in the lineup. Arizona has been flying as of late, winning five of their last six games, and scoring 22 goals combined in their last three games. Boston has been playing well, too, but they've been a frustrating team to bet on lately. They've had a tough time putting lesser teams away, and although they will likely win the game, I'm not in love with the idea of backing them on Saturday. I believe there's a big enough edge to justify betting on the Bruins to cover the puck line, but the odds have been trending in the opposite direction and that might mean that they'll a little more generous later in the day.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 280) at Calgary Flames (-340)

There’s a good chance that Dan Vladar gets the start against the Red Wings on Saturday, as the Flames will be in Colorado to take on the Avalanche on Sunday. It’ll be their sixth game in nine days and the Flames would be wise to give Jacob Markstrom some rest prior to that game. This is a tough week for the Flames, but I'll likely have some interest in backing them regardless. I do want to ensure that I don't get the worst of the number, though, so I'm going to wait until the team confirms their starting goaltender.

Update: Jacob Markstrom and Thomas Greiss are the starting goaltenders. I was going to make a full size bet on the Flames to cover the puck line, but defender Oliver Kylington is out with an injury and that moves the needle. I still bet on Calgary to cover the puck line at -145 or better, but it's only a small bet.

Pick: 

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, -145 (half size)

New York Rangers (+ 110) at Dallas Stars (-130)

Miro Heiskanen has been diagnosed with mononucleosis and was subsequently placed on injured reserve. He is out indefinitely. Jake Oettinger will start in goal for the Stars, and he'll be facing off against Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers' goaltender will be looking to bounce back after one of his worst performances of the season, and according to my model, the Stars shouldn't be priced any higher than -110.

Los Angeles Kings (-135) at San Jose Sharks (+ 115)

Viktor Arvidsson is out with an upper body injury and will not play on Saturday. Drew Doughty is questionable after missing the last game with an undisclosed injury and according to head coach Todd McLellan. Still, my model estimates that the Kings will win the game more often than the Sharks. Erik Karlsson is back, and that should help the Sharks, but -115, in favor of the road team, is a fair price assuming Jonathan Quick gets the start.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) at Edmonton Oilers (+ 135)

The Lightning have gone 1-2 so far on this six-game road trip, and they’ve allowed 11 goals combined in the last two games. That’s unusual to say the least, especially given that Andrei Vasilevskiy was in goal. This is the first game of a back-to-back as the Lightning will be in Vancouver to take on the Canucks on Sunday. The big question heading into Saturday’s matchup with the Oilers is who will start in goal for the Lightning? My guess is that they go back to Vasilevskiy in Edmonton, leaving Brian Elliott to start on Sunday in Vancouver. If that’s the case, my model estimates that the road team should be priced around -170. Edmonton is still missing forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi, and I’m going to lay the favorite at -155 or better. However, if Jon Cooper decides to give Vasilevskiy some rest, this will be a bad bet. The Lightning will likely win the game even if Elliott is in goal, but their chances of doing so will have been significantly reduced.

Notes: Mikko Koskinen will get the start in goal for the Oilers.

Updates: Brian Elliott will start in goal for the Lightning, which means my prayers did not make it to the Hockey Gods. The bet is now a -EV one, with the Lightning now priced as low as -130 at some sportsbooks. Now, all I can do is hope that the Hockey Gods will do me a solid and the road team will still win the game.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning -155

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Tampa Bay Lightning -155

Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5, -125

Late Adds:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, -145 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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