NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 2/26

February 26, 2022 10:14 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, Feb. 25th

Carolina easily covered the puck line with a 4-0 win over the Blue Jackets after dominating them for the full 60 minutes with a 50-19 edge in shots.

Record:

78-70, + 1.2 units, 0.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Friday, Feb. 26th

There are 10 games scheduled for Saturday, but so far, I just have one bet.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Edmonton Oilers (+ 175) at Florida Panthers (-200)

Edmonton has dropped two games in a row after winning the first five with interim head coach Jay Woodcroft behind the bench. The Panthers have also dropped two straight games, but they had won 17 of their last 21 prior to that. The Oilers are built to beat up on weaker teams, but they’re destined to struggle against teams like the Wild, Lightning and Panthers, unless they improve their goaltending. Take Stuart Skinner out of the equation (which the Oilers have) and the team is left with two goaltenders that combine for a sub-.900 save percentage. Sergei Bobrovsky and his .917 save percentage will be guarding the cage again for Florida after Joonas Johansson was lit up in the team’s last game. My model prices the Panthers around -210.

Notes: The Oilers play in Carolina on Sunday.

Washington Capitals (-170) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 150)

Carter Hart will be back between the pipes on Saturday, and the Flyers will also get Joel Farabee and Derick Brassard back in the lineup. As a result, my projected price on the Capitals has come down a bit, and a fair line for this game is around -175, according to my model. Ilya Samsonov will start in goal for the Capitals.

Notes: Justin Schultz will be a game-time decision for the Capitals.

New York Rangers (+ 145) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-165)

Pittsburgh has lost seven of their last 11 games. They lost four in a row, then won four in a row. But they’re dropped their last three straight games. The Rangers, meanwhile, have been winning more than they’ve been losing, but – for the most part – the games have been close. Igor Shesterkin and Tristan Jarry are the likely starters Saturday, and if that’s the case, the Penguins should be priced around -170, as my model estimates that they’ll win the game approximately 63 percent of the time.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 140) at Ottawa Senators (-160)

Montreal has won four games in a row, but they’re still missing a lot of bodies. Paul Byron, Joel Armia, Christian Dvorak, David Savard and Jonathan Drouin are all sidelined. Ottawa is still without Drake Batherson and Josh Norris, but the latter participated in practice on Friday, and although it seems unlikely that he will make his return to the lineup, I wouldn’t rule him out completely. I do think the market is a little high on Ottawa regardless, but not high enough to justify taking the Canadiens at + 140. According to my model, the home team should be priced around -135.

Tampa Bay Lightning (-175) at Nashville Predators (+ 155)

This game will be held outdoors in Nashville at Nissan Stadium. Check out the full 2022 Stadium Series preview here: Handicapping the 2022 NHL Stadium Series

Toronto Maple Leafs (-200) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 175)

Toronto has gone 4-5 straight up since returning to action following the All-Star break. They had lost three in a row before earning a 3-1 victory over the Minnesota Wild at home a couple of days ago. This will be the fourth game in six days for the Maple Leafs, so they aren’t as big of a favorite as they would be if they were rested, but – nonetheless – they are still priced short. According to my model, the Maple Leafs should be priced around -260. Feel free to back them on the moneyline, but I’m going to recommend taking a position on the road team to cover the puck line (-1.5 goals) at + 115 or better. Toronto crushed the Red Wings by a score of 7-4 at the end of January, and when the Red Wings lose, they usually do so by more than one goal. The Maple Leafs should cover the puck line more than 50 percent of the time, and their offense should get back on track against the Red Wings’ 25th ranked defense. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to start in goal for the Red Wings.

Notes: Jake Muzzin will not play. Nick Robertson will make his season debut. Jack Campbell will start for the Maple Leafs.

Pick:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line, -1.5 + 115

Colorado Avalanche (-165) at Vegas Golden Knights (+ 140)

Max Pacioretty and Mattias Janmark both left Friday's game in Arizona and are questionable to play on Saturday when the Avalanche come to town. Both teams are playing their second game in as many days. The Avalanche earned a 6-3 comeback-win over the Jets after trailing 3-0 in the first period, while the Golden Knights lost 3-1 to the Coyotes after opening the scoring. Jonathan Marchessault and Dylan Coghlan did not play on Friday due to an illness and their status is unclear heading into Saturday's matchup. Laurent Brossoit was in goal on Saturday which means we might see Logan Thompson get the start, since Robin Lehner is now on injured reserve. Assuming that all of those players are out for the Golden Knights, the Avalanche should be priced around -160.

Boston Bruins (-180) at San Jose Sharks (+ 160) 

San Jose will play the Kraken on Sunday, and it sounds like James Reimer will start both games, assuming Saturday's game against the Bruins isn't a disaster. There's a good chance it will be, though, as the Sharks have lost 11 of their last 14 games. Erik Karlsson is still not back in the lineup, and the Sharks grade out as a bottom-10 team that seems to be getting worse. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around -180, so the market has this one right, in my opinion.

Minnesota Wild (+ 130) at Calgary Flames (-150)

The Wild and Flames will play their next two games in Calgary and Minnesota. The Wild are going to come into the first game shorthanded, though, as Jordan Greenway and Matt Dumba will not be in the lineup. Minnesota has lost two in a row against the Senators and Maple Leafs, while the Flames are coming off their first loss in their last 11 games. There's no doubt that Calgary is the better team, and sportsbooks are pricing them as such. Calgary ranks in the top-five of just about every meaningful category, and although the Wild are a very strong team, Jacob Markstrom and the Flames should be priced no lower than -155, according to my model. It's unclear who will start in goal for the Wild, though, and if Cam Talbot gets the nod, Calgary should be an even bigger favorite.

New York Islanders (+ 105) at Los Angeles Kings (-125) 

Los Angeles moved into second place in the Pacific Division with their 4-1 win over the Anaheim Ducks on Friday, and I was hoping that they would be priced short on Saturday, but that wasn't the case. Personally, I think the Islanders have been regularly overpriced, but not so much so that it has resulted in me consistently fading them. That's too bad, too, because they've only picked up five wins in their last 14 games. New York has been playing better, and their underlying numbers look a lot more like they did in previous seasons, but the Kings should be priced around -120, according to my model. Los Angeles will be tired, and Cal Petersen hasn't given them much of a lift this season, but they are still the better hockey team. Semyon Varlamov will start in goal for the Islanders on Saturday.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Toronto Maple Leafs Puck Line, -1.5 + 115

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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