NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 2/19

February 19, 2022 09:26 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, Feb. 18th

There we no recommended bets on Friday.

Record:

74-68, -0.6 units, -0.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, Feb. 19th

There are more games scheduled on Sunday (eight) than Saturday (seven) which is odd, but these are the final games that the NHL must make up and things will be back to normal next week. It’s been a frustrating two weeks for me, personally, as game lines have been sharp on a day-to-day basis, and I haven’t found too many value plays. I’m not a degenerate that craves action, so I don’t mind being patient and letting the value come to me, but it does get old after a while.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Colorado Avalanche (-400) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 330)

Colorado has continued to roll over the competition, and the Sabres aren’t we’ll positioned to stop them on Saturday. The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league, grading out as the 30th team in expected goals for percentage and goals for percentage. The Avalanche score almost four goals per 60 minutes while the Sabres give up about as many. It’s going to be a tough game for Buffalo, but my model prices the Avalanche around -410, assuming Darcy Kuemper is in between the pipes.

Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Winnipeg Jets (+ 110)

This will be the Jets sixth game in nine days, and their third in four days, but it has been a busy week for the Oilers as well. Edmonton is playing their fourth game in six days, and they have a date with the Wild on Sunday. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Oilers, but if it’s Mike Smith, there’s reason to be worried. Smith has not been good this season, and in five of his last eight starts, he’s allowed two goals on the first six or fewer shots than he’s faced. The Oilers seem more capable of overcoming poor goaltending, since the coaching change, but if Connor Hellebuyck is on his game, the Oilers could find themselves in tough against a hungry Winnipeg team. The Oilers are the superior team, and they do have a bit of a rest advantage, but according to my model, they should only be priced around -115.

Notes: Oilers’ forward Jesse Puljujarvi is out for the next four weeks, while the Jets are still missing forward Nikolaj Ehlers.

St. Louis Blues (+ 155) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-175)

This game line has already started to move at some of sportsbooks that are commonly referred to as market makers, but the opening price of -175 is still widely available. I believe the home team should be priced around -195, if Jordan Binnington is in goal, but if it’s Ville Husso (who has started the last three games in a row) I’ll have to re-evaluate things. There is an edge on the Maple Leafs regardless, but without confirmation from the Blues, I don’t want to make a bet. I’ll lay a full-size wager on the Maple Leafs if Binnington is in goal, and the line hasn’t moved, but until then, I’m going to hang back and see what happens. Binnington is having the worst season of his career, and structurally, the Blues are nowhere near as good as the Maple Leafs. Toronto rank as the second-best team by expected goals in all situations, according to Evolving Hockey, and St. Louis has been below average. The Blues have scored 55 percent of the goals, though, partly thanks to shooting and saving luck.

Boston Bruins (-175) at Ottawa Senators (+ 155)

The Bruins have only won one out of their last five games, and it was a 2-0 shutout over the Senators in Ottawa. Patrice Bergeron is back in the lineup, and although that didn’t help the Bruins get past the Islanders on Thursday, they should be able to take care of the Senators again on Saturday. Josh Norris, Drake Batherson and Thomas Chabot are all still out for Ottawa, who will host the New York Rangers on Sunday in the second half of a back-to-back. The Senators have won one more game than they’ve lost since returning to action following the All-Star break, but their opponents have been generating about 0.75 more expected goals on average over the Senators’ last seven games. Boston should be priced much higher, according to my model, and therefore, betting the chalk is value at -175 or better.

Pick:

Boston Bruins -175

Los Angeles Kings (-185) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 165)

Los Angeles earned a 4-3 overtime win over the Golden Knights on Friday, so this will be their second game in as many nights. Jonathan Quick was in goal for Los Angeles in that game, which means Cal Petersen is likely going to get the start on Saturday. Karel Vejmelka will start in goal for the Coyotes, who have just two wins in their last 10 games. The Kings are a top-10 team at even strength, according to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, while the Coyotes rank 31st. Los Angeles also dictates the pace of play better than most teams in the league, as they regularly own shot attempts and shots on goal. According to my model, the Kings should be priced around -190, and as a result, it doesn’t look like I’ll be backing them today. That is, unless the line moves significantly toward the home team.

Seattle Kraken (+ 240) at Calgary Flames (-280)

Calgary has won eight games in a row, and there’s about a 75 percent chance that they win their ninth straight on Saturday when they host the Kraken. The Flames have scored at least five goals in each of their last five games, and they’ve scored at least four goals in eight of their last 10 games. Seattle is bad defensively, ranking 29th in goals against per 60 minutes according to Evolving Hockey, and the Flames grade out as the best team by expected goals (for and against). It’s unclear who the Flames will start in goal, but if it’s Jacob Markstrom, the home team should be priced around -310. I probably won’t end up taking a big position on this game, as most shops have the game line sitting around -300, but I will have some side action. For example, I bet the Flames to go over their team total (3.5 goals) at -130.

Anaheim Ducks (+ 140) at Vancouver Canucks (-160)

Anaheim has lost three straight games since returning to action post All-Star game, while the Canucks have won three of four. Quinn Hughes is back in the Vancouver lineup, too, so the Canucks are at full strength. The Ducks, meanwhile, are missing Ryan Getzlaf, Josh Manson and Derek Grant. I don’t think much of either of these teams, but I do have the Canucks rated quite a bit higher, under the circumstances. This will be the Ducks third game in four nights, and due to injuries to three useful players, my model prices the Canucks around -150, assuming the starting goaltender will be Thatcher Demko and John Gibson. If it’s Jaroslav Halak and Gibson, there would be some small value on the Ducks at $plussign% 140, but not enough to warrant a bet on the road team.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins -175

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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