NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 2/12

February 12, 2022 07:53 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, Feb. 11th

Winnipeg was able to force overtime against the Stars in Dallas on Friday, but the home team picked up the win. Tough loss.

Record:

71-67, -2.55 units, -1.9 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, Feb. 12th

It’s a relatively light weekend in the NHL, with just 11 games scheduled for this week, including nine on Saturday. It might be a quiet day, as the one early play moved (a lot) and as of right now, I haven't made any other bets. 

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Philadelphia Flyers (+ 140) at Detroit Red Wings (-160)

Philadelphia's injury list is long, and it continues to grow, as Rasmus Ristolainen is dealing with an undisclosed injury. The team also found out that Sean Couturier will not be back this season, which is good for the long-term future of the team, but obviously, things are looking rough in the short term, as the team is also without Kevin Hayes, Joel Farabee and Ryan Ellis. Detroit is not a good hockey team, though, and they should not be priced at -160. That doesn't mean there's value on the Flyers, though, as my model estimates that the Red Wings will win the game approximately 58.3 percent of the time, which converts to a fair line of -140. There's really not all that much separating these two teams, as both rank among the bottom-10 in categories like shot attempt percentage and expected goals for percentage. There's no denying that the Red Wings are the better team, but their -29 goal differential isn't all that much better than the Flyers -42 mark. 

Notes: Carter Hart will start in goal for the Flyers, but it's unclear who will start in goal for the Red Wings. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to be between the pipes.

Boston Bruins (-155) at Ottawa Senators (+ 135) 

Patrice Bergeron will not be available for Saturday's game against the Senators due to an injury, and Brad Marchand is serving the second game of a six-game suspension. Things didn't work out well for the Bruins in their first game without Bergeron and Marchand, as they lost 6-0 to the Hurricanes on home ice, but a date with the Sens presents the team with a good opportunity to get back in the win column. Boston has lost five of seven straight up, and the Senators are playing their fourth game in six days. Matt Murray will start for the Senators, who travel to Washington to play the Capitals on Sunday. Jeremy Swayman will start for the Bruins. According to my model, the Bruins should be priced around -160. I might decide to lay the favorite, but chances are I will wait until right before puck drop to see if the line gets down to around -145. I don't feel particularly confident in my prediction. I do my best to account for the absence of Bergeron and Marchand, but it's tough to predict how a team will play without their two most important players.

Columbus Blue Jackets (-140) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 120) 

These two teams met right before the All-Star break and Columbus skated away with a 6-3 win. Since then, the Canadiens have stretched their losing streak to eight games. They've also made a coaching change, and so far, nothing has changed, as Martin St. Louis' first game behind the Canadiens' bench was a 5-2 loss to the Capitals on home ice. Columbus, on the other hand, has won four of their last five, scoring at least four goals each time. The Blue Jackets aren't a good hockey team, but they've got an average offense and should be able to put up enough goals to defeat the Canadiens, who allow the most goals in the league on a per 60-minute basis. According to my model, the Blue Jackets should be priced around -140.

Notes: Montreal's injury list includes Jonathan Drouin, David Savard and goaltender Jake Allen, but the team is healthier than they've been in months.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 170) at Nashville Predators (-190) 

Some recreational sportsbooks have no idea what to do when it comes to pricing back-to-back games, and Nashville's opening price of -170 is another example of that. The Predators are now priced at -200, and rightfully so, as the Jets will likely start backup goaltender Eric Comrie, after Connor Hellebuyck was in goal for Friday's 4-3 overtime loss to the Stars in Dallas. Juuse Saros is expected to be in goal for the Predators, and according to my model, the home team should be priced around -190 if that's the case.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-200) at Vancouver Canucks (+ 175) 

Here is another game that moved overnight, as the Maple Leafs opened around -170 at some shops, but now sit at -200, as they get set to face off against the Canucks in Vancouver on Saturday night. Vancouver defender Quinn Hughes is still listed as day-to-day with COVID, so don't expect him to be back in the lineup, and that's a big blow for the home team. Remember when fans were chanting for Bruce Boudreau and they had won seven games in a row? Yeah, me too. Since then, the Canucks have lost 10 of 16 games, and although they've had to deal with injuries and illness, who hasn't? Toronto played well against the Flames on Thursday, and I expect them to bring that energy (and then some) to Vancouver on Saturday. However, I just can't justify laying -200 because the price that my model generated is similar.

Carolina Hurricanes (-115) at Minnesota Wild (-105) 

I expect Frederik Andersen to get the start in goal for the Hurricanes, but on the off-chance that he doesn't, I think it's worth noting that I think the Wild ought to be a small favorite. Right now, I have the Hurricanes priced around -110, so the game line is fair, but if Antti Raanta starts, the odds would tilt toward the Wild. Cam Talbot will start in goal for the Wild. He hasn't been good this season, but the Wild are one of the best offensive teams in the league. The problem is, the Hurricanes grade out as one of the best defensive teams in the league. Carolina doesn't play again until Feb. 16th, though, so we'll probably see Andersen in the cage.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 170) at St. Louis Blues (-190)

St. Louis is coming off an embarrassing 7-4 loss to the Devils on home ice, and Jordan Binnington appears to be broken. It was the fourth time in five games that Binnington allowed at least five goals. We'll probably see Ville Husso in goal on Saturday, though, which puts the Blues in a much better position to win. Binnington might turn his season, and his career around, but right now, Husso is the best option for the team. The Blackhawks are still without Jonathan Toews, and they've lost seven of their last nine, so the Blues are in a good position to get a win here, but my model estimates that the home team should be priced at -188, so laying the favorite isn't an option.

New York Islanders (+ 160) at Calgary Flames (-180)

New York was in Edmonton on Friday, and they lost 3-1 to the Oilers. Ilya Sorokin was in goal for the Islanders. On Saturday, they’ll head a few hours south to play the Calgary Flames. Now, the Flames might start backup goaltender Dan Vladar, but that isn’t going to scare me off at -185 or better, as my model estimates that Calgary will win the game more than 67 percent of the time with Vladar in the crease. If Markstrom starts, it’s a bonus, but I’m pricing the game as if Vladar will be between the pipes. Calgary is coming off two huge victories over Vegas and Toronto, and although this will be their third game in four nights, they haven’t been travelling and they have a rest advantage over a tired Islanders team. The Flames grade out as one of the best teams in the league, particularly at even strength. The Islanders take (and draw) the fewest minor penalties in the league, which means the game should mostly be played at even strength. According to my model, the Flames are a value play up to -185, but that’s assuming Vladar will be in goal, and my perceived edge will be bigger if Markstrom is in the crease.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -180

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames -180 

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

 

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