NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 1/8

January 8, 2022 10:21 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, Jan. 7th

There were no recommended bets on Friday.

Record: 58-49, + 3.75units, 3.7 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Note: Scroll to the bottom of the page to find out if there are any player prop bets for today.

Market Report for Saturday, Jan. 8th

It’s a busy Saturday with 11 games on tap, so I’ll be keeping things short, for the most part. To kick things off, I have bets on two games going over their respective totals.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Pittsburgh Penguins (-130) at Dallas Stars (+ 110)

It looks like Evgeny Malkin’s return has already been priced into the game line, and that’s unfortunate. Just two days ago I bet on the Panthers in Dallas at -135, and now I’m being offered the Penguins at the same price, with no word on whether Malkin will play or not. Jake Oettinger will start in goal for the Stars as well, which makes laying -130 on the road team even less appealing. Tristan Jarry is expected to start in goal for the Penguins.

New Jersey Devils (+ 100) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-120)

This is a rematch from Thursday. The Devils won that game 3-1. Both were missing key players in that game and that will be the case again on Saturday. New Jersey is expected to be without Dougie Hamilton, Pavel Zach, Andreas Johnsson and Yegor Sharangovich, while the Blues Jackets are missing still Elvis Merzlikins, and therefore, Joonas Korpisalo will start in goal. Zach Werenski will return to the Columbus lineup, but there’s no value in laying -120 on the Blue Jackets. I don’t think I’ll end up with a position on either side, given how the game is currently priced. The total in this matchup was bet into shape, after opening with a total of six (Over + 100). That means there’s no value on betting over 6.5 goals at + 105.

Boston Bruins (+ 155) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)

With the Lightning back at full strength now that Nikita Kucherov has returned, and Charlie McAvoy out of the Bruins lineup, the gap between these two teams is the largest it’s been in a while. However, according to my model, -155 is a fair price. Sure, the Bruins are an average team on offense, and probably won’t reach their full potential on defense until Tuukka Rask is back in the crease full time, but this is still a well-structured hockey team. The Lightning will likely win the game, but not often enough where laying -175 would be a good bet.

San Jose Sharks (-115) at Philadelphia Flyers (-105)

Philadelphia’s lineup is a mess, with Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Ivan Provorov and several others out due to injury and illness. They are at home, though, and it’s very possible that some players return to the lineup given that the time they’ve spent on the injured list. And with uncertainty surrounding the Sharks lineup, as Erik Karlsson and James Reimer are listed as day-to-day, and Logan Couture is still in COVID protocol.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 140) at Colorado Avalanche (-160)

This game opened at a few shops with the Avalanched listed the favorite at -135, but it was bet up to -155 and -160 before any of the bigger shops offered the game. In other words, some bettors were able to get a nickel, or two, down, and that’s it. Mitch Marner is out for the Maple Leafs due to COVID, as is Pierre Engvall. Ondrej Kase is also out with an injury. Jack Campbell will start in goal, but the Maple Leafs should be priced around + 150, according to my model, which means the Avalanche are priced correctly.

Florida Panthers (-110) at Carolina Hurricanes (-110)

Carolina picked up a win over the Flames on Friday, and now face a tough opponent on the second half of a back-to-back. The Panthers are coming off a shootout loss in Dallas, but they’ve had a day off to regroup. Florida is still missing Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart, but this is a deep team. Sergei Bobrovsky and Antti Raanta are expected to be the starting goaltenders. According to my model, the Hurricanes should be priced around -105, and would have taken the Panthers as a dog at + 115, but that number was only there for a short time before it moved.

Update: Patric Hornqvist has been placed in COVID protocol.

Washington Capitals (-120) at Minnesota Wild (+ 100)

Kirill Kaprizov was injured on Thursday in Boston, and he will not be in the lineup on Saturday. The Wild are already missing several key players, and Kaprizov is easily their most impactful player. Some players are listed as day-to-day, but Joel Eriksson Ek and Jared Spurgeon are expected to be out. The Capitals fell 5-1 to the Blues in St. Louis on Friday. T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom did not play, and they are with the team on the road. Zach Fucale was called up from the American Hockey League and is expected to get the start on Saturday in Minnesota. He’ll likely face off against Kaapo Kakhonen, as Cam Talbot works his way back from an injury. Even though both teams are missing some great offensive players, betting the game to go over six goals at -115 or better is a value play, but it’s a smaller bet.


Over 6 -120 (half size)

Nashville Predators (-245) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 215)

Arizona doesn’t matchup good with any team, but stylistically, the Predators seem like an especially tough opponent. Nashville is a heavy team that forechecks hard, and assuming Juuse Saros is in goal, the Coyotes will likely have a tough time generating shots, let alone goals. However, there isn’t enough value to justify laying the favorite at -250.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 200) at Vegas Golden Knights (-240)

Marc-Andre Fleury will make his return to Vegas on Saturday as the Blackhawks are set to take on the Golden Knights. All signs point to Fleury getting the start in goal for the road team, too, who will likely have no problem getting up for this game, seeing as how it probably means a lot to their starting goaltender. That won’t change the fact that the Blackhawks are a bad hockey team, though. and There’s no value in taking the dog at + 200, as my model suggests that a fair price is more in line with the home team. Vegas is coming off an impressive win over the Rangers, and they didn’t really miss a beat while Mark Stone and Robin Lehner were out. Now those players are back, and the Golden Knights are in a good position to continue their winning ways.

New York Rangers (-115) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 105)

Igor Shesterkin is in COVID protocol and is not expected to play, which means Alexandar Georgiev is expected to be in goal. Artemi Panarin is also out due to the virus. The Rangers are still a strong team, though, and the head coach Gerard Gallant will push them to be better than they were in Vegas on Thursday. The Ducks had their last game rescheduled due to the several players entering COVID protocol, but it looks like Trevor Zegras will be back in the lineup on Saturday. They’re still missing Ryan Getzlaf, Adam Henrique and Hampus Lindholm, but Zegras should help the Ducks find their offensive game. Anthony Stolarz will make his first start since December 15th, and although I think he’s a good goaltender, having that much time off typically does more harm than good. The Rangers have enough offensive players that they should be able to generate offense, even without Panarin, barring they put forth the kind of effort you’d expect from a team coming off a bad performance. And the Ducks should be able to make things tough on Georgiev.

Update: Zegras is back for the Ducks.


Over 5.5 -120

Detroit Red Wings (+ 130) at Los Angeles Kings (-150)

The Kings are a decent hockey team on paper, but they have failed to put it together in 2021-22 for one reason or another, and my model seems to like them less and less as the season goes on. However, the Red Wings don’t really have anything going for them, and therefore, I agree with the market on this one. According to my model, assuming Alex Nedeljkovic and Jonathan Quick are the starting goaltenders, the Kings should be priced around -150. If it’s Thomas Greiss in goal for Detroit, the Kings’ odds would increase, but I’m not going to speculate and end up with a -EV bet. I’ll circle back to this game if there is reason to do so.

Update: Cal Petersen is expected to start in goal for the Kings.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Washington Capitals – Minnesota Wild Over 6 -110 (half size)

New York Rangers – Anaheim Ducks Over 5.5 -120

Player Prop Bets for Friday, Jan. 7th:

Record: 107-105, -12.25 units, -4.83 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -108

Tyler Bertuzzi Anytime Goal + 200 (DraftKings)

It's not often that the Propagator points to Anytime Goal Scorer bets, but + 180 is a fair price and DraftKings is offering + 200. Bertuzzi has 15 goals in 26 games and after going 11 games without lightning the lamp, He's scored in four out of his last five games.

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