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All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page
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Market Report Recap for Friday, Jan. 28th
There were no recommended bets on Friday.
71-61, + 3.95 units, 3.1 percent ROI
Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.
Market Report for Saturday, Jan. 29th
It’s a busy Saturday in the NHL, with 10 games on tap. Originally, there was supposed to be 11 games, but the Islanders’ game has been postponed due to a snowstorm in the area. I’ll be travelling throughout the morning and into the afternoon, but I will try to do another update later today, following the early games.
Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:
Anaheim Ducks (-135) at Ottawa Senators (+ 115)
Ottawa is missing Drake Batherson, Connor Brown and Josh Norris, and a few other regulars. Anaheim’s injury list includes Ryan Getzlaf, Derek Grant and Sonny Milano. This is the fourth game on Ducks’ five-game road trip. It’s been a successful trip so far, but this is their third game in four days. Intuitively, this seems like a great spot to bet the Ducks, but my model suggests that -140 is a fair price assuming John Gibson is in goal for the road team. Anton Forsberg will start between for the Senators.
Los Angeles Kings (-165) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 145)
The Flyers, who have lost 13 in a row, have had three days off, while the Kings, winners of seven of their last 10, are in the middle of a six-game road trip. There’s a lot separating these two teams, as – according to Evolving Hockey – the Kings rank 12th in expected goals percentage and seventh in shot attempt percentage, while the Flyers rank 28th and 25th in those same categories. It’s unclear who will start in goal for either team, especially Los Angeles, as they will travel to Pittsburgh play the Penguins on Sunday. Jonathan Quick and Carter Hart are expected to be the starting goaltenders, but as this is the first half of a back-to-back for the road team, there’s no telling who will start. The Kings will probably win the game, but laying the favorite is only slightly + EV.
Winnipeg Jets (+ 155) at St. Louis Blues (-175)
St. Louis doesn’t play again until Feb. 10th, and I’m genuinely interested in finding out whether Jordan Binnington or Ville Husso will get the start in goal against the Jets. However, I’m more interested in learning whether if Connor Hellebuyck will make his 35th start of the season or not. The Jets have played 40 games so far, and after losing six in a row, I wonder if Eric Comrie will make his first start since Jan. 1st. Winnipeg will play the Flyers in Philadelphia before the All-Star break, though, so if I had to guess, Comrie will be called on to start in that game. Sometimes it seems like the Jets don’t have a choice, anyway, as I get the impression that Hellebuyck decides when he starts and when he doesn’t. This is a matinee, so we won’t get to see Hellebuyck go through his “I’m starting tonight” routine at morning skate, but this game all comes down to goaltending. I don’t believe either team is particularly good, as both the Blues and the Jets grade out as below-average teams at even strength, but with an injury keeping forward Nikolaj Ehlers out of the Jets’ lineup, it’s clear that the Blues are the superior team. However, Ville Husso is a driving force behind the Blues recent success, and there’s a chance that Jordan Binnington could be back between the pipes. It won’t matter much if the Jets decide to go with Comrie, but if Hellebuyck starts, the Jets will be a value bet at + 155 or better.
San Jose (+ 260) at Florida Panthers (-320)
Sergei Bobrovsky will get the start in goal for the Panthers, while James Reimer will get the nod for the Sharks. There’s not a lot to say here other than that I believe the game is priced appropriately, given that the Sharks are missing Erik Karlsson, who has been a big part of their success this season.
New Jersey Devils (+ 240) at Carolina Panthers (-310)
Carolina will host the San Jose Sharks on Sunday, and early indications suggest Antti Raanta will get the start in goal on Saturday, paving the way for Frederik Andersen to start against the Sharks on Sunday. The Devils, who have just two wins in their last nine games, will likely go back to backup goaltender John Gillies, as MacKenzie Blackwood is out with an injury. Dougie Hamilton is not expected to play. My model is in line with the market on this game, which means I’m probably going to stay neutral.
Vegas Golden Knights (+ 125) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-145)
Tampa Bay forward Nikita Kucherov is out due to COVID, and Vegas has Max Pacioretty back, but the Lightning are the stronger team. Vasilevskiy has been well taken care of as of late, having only played two games in the last ten days, while the Golden Knights are playing their fourth game in six days. The Lightning have won eight of their last 10 games and have been doing so in dominant fashion. The Golden Knights will start to turn it around now that they’re getting healthy, but they’ve only picked up three wins in their last ten games and haven’t been very good on this trip. Pacioretty, Smith and Stone all played in the last game, and the Panthers still owned almost 70 percent of the expected goals and outscored the Golden Knights 4-1. The game line closed -150 at most shops, and Spencer Knight was in goal. The Lightning are as good, if not better than, the Panthers, and Vasilevskiy is the best goaltender in the league. According to my model, despite Kucherov’s absence, the Lightning should be priced closer to -155, and therefore, the home team is a value bet at -145 or better. At that price, I recommend making a small, half-size wager, but since -140 is widely available, bettors should shop around. Some shops are even offering -135.
Tampa Bay Lightning -140
Edmonton Oilers (-255) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 225)
There was some hope that Montreal would get some of their regulars back in the lineup, most notably Brendan Gallagher, but it doesn’t look like that will be the case. The Oilers, meanwhile, will debut their newest forward, Evander Kane. Say what you want about Kane’s personal life, and the trouble that seems to follow him around, but it’s easy to see why the Oilers think he can be a valuable piece, even if it’s only in the short term. He was the Sharks’ leading scorer for the last two seasons, after all. The Oilers are healthier now than they were when they were during their losing skid, and that bodes well for their chances on Saturday. However, according to my model, the game line isn’t wrong, and there’s no value bet here. The Oilers are very likely going to leave Montreal with two points, but their chances of doing so aren’t that much better than 70 percent.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-250) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 210)
I tried to capitalize on the fact that the Calvin Picard started for the Red Wings against the Penguins on Friday, and it blew up in my face, as the Penguins were not able to win the game, let alone cover the puck line. Alex Nedeljkovic will get the start for Detroit on Saturday. The Maple Leafs will start Petr Mrazek, and they won’t have Jake Muzzin, who has missed the last few games with a concussion, in the lineup. I was able to take + 105 on the Maple Leafs to cover the puck line, but it was only a small bet and the line has moved to even money or worse at most shops.
Buffalo Sabres (+ 110) at Arizona Coyotes
Everybody seems to be up in arms over the fact that the Sabres don’t have any healthy goaltenders, but it looks like Craig Anderson could be back between the pipes if he is cleared to play. If that’s the case, the line movement toward the Coyotes was premature. Anderson should be able to provide the Sabres with goaltending like that of Michael Houser or Aaron Dell, and the Coyotes are playing their second game in as many nights. Sure, Karel Vejmelka is confirmed to start in goal, and that’s a big reason why the Coyotes ought to be the favorite here, on home ice, but the Sabres top-nine forward group is decent, at least on paper, and the market might be putting a little too much stock into Buffalo’s goaltending situation. According to my model, a fair price is -115 in favor of the Coyotes.
Vancouver Canucks (+ 165) at Calgary Flames
The Flames are playing their third game in four days, and their fourth in six, for that matter. They have just returned from a quick trip two-game road trip that saw them make stops in Columbus and St. Louis on back-to-back nights. The Blues sent them home limping after a 5-1 beatdown. Calgary is still in a good position to come away with a win on Saturday against the Canucks, but -185 is too close to a fair price for me to be able to justify laying the favorite. My model prices the game around -190. The Canucks are still missing some bodies, most notably Bo Horvat, due to injury and illness, but Thatcher Demko is expected to return to the crease and J.T. Miller and Connor Garland have returned to the lineup in recent games. Jacob Markstrom is expected to get the start in goal for the Flames. If not for the rest spot, I would definitely lay the favorite here, but obviously, fatigue is a big reason why the Flames aren’t priced higher in the first place.
Tampa Bay Lightning -140
Check back later for updates.
Player Prop Bets:
Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI
There are no recommended play prop bets currently.