NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 1/22

January 22, 2022 08:35 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Friday, Jan. 21st

Another solid night, as the Hurricanes took care of the Rangers with ease, and the Panthers came from behind to win in overtime. Quite a bit of closing line value on both bets, but I did get some help from Rangers’ head coach Gerard Gallant, who decided to start Alexandar Georgiev instead of Igor Shesterkin. If only I could have gotten more down on the Hurricanes, it would have been one of my biggest bets of the season.

Record: 68-58, + 4.4 units, 3.6 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Saturday, Jan. 22nd

It’s a busy Saturday in the NHL with 11 games on tap. I have one early bet (Calgary) that I want to get out of the way. The rest of the report will be updated shortly.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Philadelphia Flyers (-135) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 115)

Joel Farabee, Kevin Hayes, Sean Couturier and Ryan Ellis are just some of the players that are on the Flyers’ injured list. They’re missing a handful of depth players, too. Carter Hart and Aaron Dell are expected to start in goal for their respective clubs. The Sabres injury list mostly consists of depth players, but it's still a long list. I'm neutral on this game.

Update: Michael Houser will start for the Sabres.

Winnipeg Jets (+ 150) at Boston Bruins (-170)

Brad Marchand will not play for the Bruins. Nikolaj Ehlers will not play for the Jets. If the Bruins were at full strength, I would have jumped at the opening price, but with no Marchand, Boston's offense is probably going to be off-kilter. The Jets haven't been good on the road this season (7-7-5) and the Bruins will win the game approximately 63 percent of the time. That translates to a fair line of around -170, which means there isn't any value in betting the Bruins due to Marchand's absence. If the market feels differently about the Jets, and the line moves in their direction, I'll consider laying the favorite.

Update: There's now a possibility that Blake Wheeler and Brendan Dillon will return to the Jets' lineup. It wouldn't be enough to incentivize me to take the dog, but it does change my handicap enough that I will probably avoid laying the favorite unless the odds become so advantageous that I have no choice but to bet on them. Connor Hellebuyck will start for the Jets.

Carolina Hurricanes (-180) at New Jersey Devils (+ 160)

Carolina hosted the Rangers on Friday, so this is the second game of a back-to-back. Teurvo Teravainen is not expected to play after suffering an injury in Friday's game against the Rangers. John Gillies was the first goaltender off the ice in New Jersey this morning, which means he is expected to get the start over MacKenzie Blackwood. It's unclear who will start in goal for the Hurricanes, though, as Antti Raanta is in COVID protocol. Frederik Andersen played well on Friday, but he'll be playing tired against a Devils' team that has some serious offensive talent. However, even though the Hurricanes will be tired, and missing some key players, they still deserve to be a sizeable favorite against a bad hockey team like the Devils. Dougie Hamilton is still out for New Jersey, and they've lost four out of their last games.

Montreal Canadiens (+ 450) at Colorado Avalanche (-600)

Cayden Primeau will start in goal for the Canadiens, who are still missing a lot of regulars. However, the Avalanche have been playing a lot of hockey and there's a chance that Pavel Francouz will get the start for Colorado. That doesn't mean there's value in taking the dog, because there's not, but Colorado's price is more than fair at this point.

Ottawa Senators (+ 175) at Washington Capitals (-200)

Washington is missing three key defenders. Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson and Nick Jensen, but sportsbooks have this one priced correctly. With Matt Murray in goal, the Senators don't stand a very good chance against any team in the NHL, much less one with the talent that Washington has up front. Their defense is depleted, but according to my model, Washington should be priced around -185.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 255) at New York Rangers (-310)

Igor Shesterkin is expected to start in goal for the Rangers after Alexandar Georgiev took the loss in Carolina on Friday. Karel Vejmelka will start for the Coyotes, who are coming off a 4-0 loss to the Islanders on Friday. The Rangers should be able to get past the Coyotes with relative ease, even though they're going to be playing tired, as Arizona is in the same boat. However, my model prices this game around -270 in favor of the Rangers, so it doesn't look like I'm going to have any reason to get involved here.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-175) at New York Islanders (+ 155)

Petr Mrazek will start in goal for the Maple Leafs. Semyon Varlamov is expected to start in goal for the Islanders, who are coming off a 4-0 win over the Coyotes. This will be their second game in as many nights. Jake Muzzin will not be in the lineup for the Maple Leafs. My model estimates that the Maple Leafs will win the game about 64 percent of the time, which converts to a fair line of around -180. If the market moves toward the home team, I'll go the opposite way and lay the road favorite. The Islanders have had an easy schedule since returning from the break and, unlike a lot of other bettors, I'm not buying what the Islanders are selling. Ryan Pullock will return to the lineup soon, which will give the team a big boost, but he's not back yet and the Maple Leafs are a formidable opponent.

Detroit Red Wings (+ 190) at Nashville Predators (-210)

Detroit lost to Stars 5-4 in overtime on Friday, and now they're in Nashville to take on the Predators. The Predators game line opened around -190 and moved to -220 fairly quickly. So quick, in fact, that I wasn't able to get a bet down. According to my model, Nashville should be priced around -230, as this should be a tough spot for the Red Wings, who have lost seven of their last ten games.

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 180) at Minnesota Wild (-210)

The Wild defeated the Blackhawks in Chicago on Friday by a score of 5-1. Now, the two teams are getting set to meet in Minnesota. Jared Spurgeon is expected to return to the Minnesota lineup, and Kaapo Kakhonen is expected to make yet another start. Kevin Lankinen is expected to start for the Blackhawks. All of these changes, including the venue, result in the Wild being a much bigger favorite than they were on Friday in Chicago. The Wild should be priced around -180, according to my model.

Calgary Flames (-115) at Edmonton Oilers (-105)

The Battle of Alberta resumes on Saturday as the Flames are in Edmonton to take on the Oilers. Calgary dealt Florida a 5-1 loss earlier this week before the Panthers returned paid it forward to the Oilers, beating them 6-0 on Thursday. Edmonton is going to be without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins due to a lower-body injury, and Zach Hyman, due to COVID. Meanwhile, the Flames are at full strength, with only Tyler Pitlick on the injured list. Calgary doesn’t have Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but the Flames roster is stronger overall, and they have great goaltending. The Oilers are better on the power play, but that’s the only area that they have an edge in. Calgary grades out as a top-five team by expected goals and shot attempts. They also have a top-five penalty kill.

Plenty of bettors will be lining up to take the Oilers as a home underdog, and a lot of them probably believe that the law of averages exists. It does now. There’s no such thing. How many games the Oilers have lost in the past several weeks has no impact on their chances of coming away with a win on Saturday, and according to my model, the Flames should be priced closer to -130. There is some uncertainty as to who will start in goal for the Flames, but with so much at stake, I would be surprised if Jacob Markstrom wasn’t between the pipes in Edmonton on Saturday. I recommend laying the favorite in this matchup, but shop around, because any bettor with more than a couple of outs should be able to find -110. There’s probably going to be some resistance to my action, but that won’t shake my confidence in this bet. I don’t think the market is properly assessing this matchup.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -115

Tampa Bay Lightning (-150) at San Jose Sharks (+ 130)

Brian Elliott will start for the Tampa Bay Lightning. James Reimer will start for the Sharks. The game line already moved a lot, though, so what's done is done, and the market now has this one right where it should be, as my model suggests that the Lightning should be priced around -150. Jumping on the Sharks when they opened at + 170 would've been a good idea, but now that they're sitting at + 130, it wouldn't be advantageous to do so.

Bet Summary

Early Bets:

Calgary Flames -115

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended play prop bets currently.

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