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All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page
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Market Report Recap for Friday, Nov. 5th
What. A. Comeback.
After allowing three goals in a four-minute span, the Oilers found themselves trailing 4–1 to the Rangers in the second period. Edmonton stormed back, though, and picked up a 6-5 win in overtime, after Connor McDavid scored the goal of the year.
I’m very happy to get another much-needed win on the moneyline, but I’m bummed that player prop bets have been running cold. Coming into this week, player prop bets were running hot. The record was 52-40 ( 5.60 units, 4.9 percent ROI) but after a terrible 7-12-week, player prop bets are now in the red. The swings are real.
Game Lines:
13-15, -5.1 units, -15.5 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -113
Player Props:
59-52, -2.15 units, -1.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -114
Market Report for Saturday, Nov. 6th
Saturday is going to be noisy, with a dozen games on the schedule to handicap, so I’m focusing almost all my attention on the games that might offer value, from a betting perspective.
A quick survey of the game lines will show that there hasn’t been much movement (outside of the Kraken line) since they opened. I’m going to need something (actionable information) to shake out, or a price to move, before I make a bet on a side on Saturday.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-180) at Ottawa Senators (+ 160)
All bets are off if the goaltending matchup ends up being Brian Elliott versus Matt Murray. Well, except over six goals, but I don’t really see any reason that the Lightning would give Andrei Vasilevskiy the day off. I’ve accounted for the fact that it’s the fourth game in six days for the Senators, but the value here is razor thin, and I’d prefer to lay a much better price than -180, however, I won’t be doing anything until the goaltenders are confirmed, and even then, the price might be too high for my liking.
Note: Mikhail Sergachev (TBL) is serving a suspension.
Update: Brian Elliott and Matt Murray are the starting goaltenders. I made a half-size bet Over 6 -110 or better.
Pick:
Over 6 -110 (half size)
Carolina Hurricanes (+ 120) at Florida Panthers (-140)
It would be hard to pass up a chance to bet on the Hurricanes at + 120 in Florida if they were at full strength, but they’re not, as forward Nino Niederreiter and defender Brett Pesce are both sidelined. The list of injured Panthers players seems to grow by the day, too. Sam Bennett, Radko Gudas and Markus Nutivaara have all missed time and are listed as day-to-day, and now goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is as well. I won’t be laying the favorite, but I will consider making a small play on the dog if the price gets to a point where it’s north of + 125, assuming Frederik Andersen gets the start for Carolina.
Boston Bruins (+ 110) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130)
While there are several intriguing matchups on Saturday night, the game between the Bruins and the Maple Leafs gets top billing. It’s the first time these two teams have met in a while, and you bet both sides are looking forward to renewing the rivalry. Toronto picked up their most impressive win of the season, 2-1 in overtime, over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday, but the Bruins are heating up and this is probably going to be Toronto’s toughest test to date. With that said, I believe this game is priced correctly. I wouldn’t lay the favorite unless I was getting -110 or better, and I wouldn’t take the dog unless the price was + 125 or better. Give or take a couple of cents.
Colorado Avalanche (-170) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 150)
Columbus upset the Avalanche on Wednesday, but Colorado was missing several key players. The Avalanche are still without Cale Makar and Valeri Nichushkin, but it looks like they’ll get Andre Burakovsky and Mikko Rantanen back on Saturday. There’s also a chance that defender Devon Toews will make his season debut, which would be a huge boost for the team. Patrik Laine is listed as week-to-week, and he won’t be in the lineup for the Blue Jackets. Which moves the needs in the direction of the road team. I’m going to assume that Elvis Merzlikins gets the start in goal for Columbus, but they could go back to Joonas Korpisalo. If that happens, I’ll be a lot more inclined to lay the favorite at -170, but I would prefer to have more information about what the Avalanche lineup is going to like before I do.
Update: Elvis Merzlikins and Darcy Kuemper are the starting goaltenders. By my estimation, there's a small edge on betting Colorado on the moneyline, but I would rather play player props right now, and hope that the game line drops before the puck does.
Player Props:
Zach Werenski Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots -150 (DraftKings or BetMGM)
Mikko Rantanen Over 3.5 Shots + 130 (DraftKings)
Typically, I let the Propagator find good player prop bets for me, but when I saw this prop, I was certain betting the under would be EV. Of course, I did consult the Propagator, which prices the under at -170.
MacKinnon has been generating a lot of shots, and just about went over this total in the last game. Now he's back with Rantanen and Landeskog on the top line, and on the top power play unit. The Blue Jackets allow the most shots against on a per 60 minute basis in the league. There should be enough shot attempts to go around for both players. MacKinnon's prop should be priced at -190 to the over, while Rantanen's prop should be priced around + 110, according to the Propagator.
Detroit Red Wings (-110) at Buffalo Sabres (-110)
Will Victor Olofsson suit up for the Sabres? That’s the big question heading into this game. He currently leads the team in goals (5) and points (9) but has missed the last two games. He could be ready to go on Saturday, but it sounds like he’ll be a game-time decision. Detroit’s lineup also has a hole to fill, as Dylan Larkin has missed the last two games due to personal reasons, and there’s no timetable on his return. There isn’t much separating these two teams, so if Olofsson does return to the lineup, I would lay -110 with the home team if I can do so in a timely fashion.
Update: Dylan Larkin (DET) and Victor Olofsson (BUF) are out.
Vegas Golden Knights (-105) at Montreal Canadiens (-115)
Vegas plays again on Sunday in Detroit, so it’s unclear who they’ll go with in goal on Saturday in Montreal. The Canadiens are probably going to go back to Jake Allen, but nothing has been confirmed. By my estimation, this game is a coin flip, and that’s exactly how it’s priced. These aren’t the same teams that went head-to-head in the Stanley Cup playoffs, so forget about that series because you won’t draw any conclusions from it.
Note: Nick Suzuki and Brendan Gallagher (MTL) will be game-time decisions on Saturday.
Update: Robin Lehner and Jake Allen are the starting goaltenders.
Minnesota Wild (+ 100) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-120)
Kris Letang returned to the Penguins lineup on Thursday, and they might get Bryan Rust back on Saturday, but his status is still up in the air. Sidney Crosby and Brian Dumoulin are still in COVID protocol as of now, as is Wild forward Mats Zuccarello. The Wild have had three days off, but they play the Islanders on Sunday so there's no telling which goaltender will start which game.
Update: Cam Talbot will start in goal for the Wild and Tristan Jarry will start for the Penguins.
Philadelphia Flyers (+ 130) at Washington Capitals (-150)
Washington has been playing well, but they’ve run into some injury trouble. First, T.J. Oshie went down with a lower-body injury, and now Anthony Mantha is out for a while after suffering a shoulder injury that required immediate surgery. The Flyers are still missing defender Ryan Ellis, who isn’t traveling with the team, though, and I still price the Capitals around -145. I’m going to monitor the game line throughout the day and hope that the market puts too much faith in the Flyers to take advantage of a banged-up team. In other words, if the odds were to drop into the neighbourhood of -135, I would consider backing the home team.
Update: Martin Jones will start in goal for the Flyers.
New York Islanders (-120) at Winnipeg Jets (+ 100)
Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck couldn’t play on Friday, as he was not feeling well. The team did say he was feeling better, and that he would undergo tests before Saturday’s game to determine if he can play. He’ll have to be symptom free, though, which could pose a problem. The Jets could be in tough against the Islanders if they must go back to Eric Comrie for the second straight night, but I’m not willing to take what I believe is a bad price. If Hellebuyck can’t go, the Islanders should win the game about 55.5 percent of the time which translates to a fair line of -125. The Islanders would have been a good bet at -110, if I knew that Hellebuyck was going to sit out again, but then again, opening numbers move fast under these circumstances and it wouldn’t have taken much to move the line.
Update: Hellebuyck is out, which means Comrie will start his second game in a row, and second game in two days, for the Jets. The Islanders have no confirmed a goaltender yet, but the line to -135 in favor of the Islanders. However, as I mentioned before, I don't think they should be priced any higher than -125, which is the mid-point price (betweem -135 and + 115).
Seattle Kraken (-150) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 130)
This game was hit hard when it opened at -150 in favor of the road team, and now sits at -190. It’s a good example of a quick price correction, nothing more. Only a small number of people would’ve been able to get down at, or around, the opening price. It’s better to look at the line as if it didn’t exist, because it really didn’t if you were still sleeping, or maybe you blinked and missed it.
Joonas Donskoi Over 0.5 Points + 135 (DraftKings or BetMGM)
I don't know if this one has been slipping under my radar, but I'm glad it has, as Donskoi only has five points in eleven games. That doesn't really line up with what we've seen from him in recent years, though, and it doesn't make much sense that he scored more as a depth forward in Colorado than he is as a top-line player in Seattle. He's not getting top power play minutes, but the Propagator prices the over closer to + 110, so it's a value bet. He's playing about four minutes more per game than he was last season.
New York Rangers (+ 135) at Calgary Flames (-155)
Once again, this game has been bet up after opening early on Saturday morning because the Rangers played on Friday night in Edmonton, but I don’t necessarily agree with the move. Igor Shesterkin had Friday night off, so he’s rested for this matchup, and by my estimation, a fair price should be closer to -138 in favor of the home team. The Flames are good, and, for the most part, I’ve enjoyed betting on them, but I’ll have to take a good look at the Rangers if the price gets to + 145 or better.
New Jersey Devils (+ 120) at San Jose Sharks (-140)
San Jose still has a handful of key players in COVID protocol, and they're all listed as day-to-day so there's a little bit of uncertainty as to whether there's any chance some them could return to the lineup. As for the Devils, they might be without Dougie Hamilton for another game, as his status for Saturday's matchup seems to be questionable at best. He missed Friday's game with a lower-body injury. MacKenzie Blackwood made his return to the crease for the Devils on Friday, so I expect to see Jonathan Bernier get the start on Saturday. I don't have a lot of interest in this game, though, as I believe the price is fair. Of course, there's a lot of moving parts here, so that could change.
Bet Summary
Early Bets:
Lightning/Senators Over 6 Goals -110 (half size)
Late Adds:
Zach Werenski Under 0.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots -150 (DraftKings or BetMGM)
Mikko Rantanen Over 3.5 Shots + 130 (DraftKings)
Joonas Donskoi Over 0.5 Points + 135 (DraftKings or BetMGM)