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Market Report Recap for Friday, Nov. 19th
The Winnipeg Jets played well in Vancouver, and probably deserved a better fate, but that doesn’t change the fact that it wasn’t a very good bet, based on the closing price.
Game Lines:
21-25, -7.2 units, -15.1 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -105
Player Props:
70-67, -7.75 units, -4.6 percent ROI, Avg. Odds -112
Market Report for Saturday, Nov. 20th
With 12 games to handicap, there's a lot to cover, but I wanted to get one early bet out of the way. It's the only one I'm comfortable recommending, based on the consensus prices and the information that we have available.
Check back a little later for the rest of the report.
New Jersey Devils (+ 180) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-210)
Brian Elliott could get the start for the Lightning, who will play the Wild at home on Sunday, but there’s such a big difference between how the Lightning should be priced depending on which goaltender starts which game. If It’s Elliott, and the Devils are priced anywhere close to + 180, it will be a good bet.
Update: Andrei Vasilevskiy and MacKenzie Blackwood are the starting goaltenders.
Player Props:
Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)
Hischier only has nine points in 15 games and based on the total and the game line, the Devils will score about 2.5 goals on average, and the Propagator predicts that he will only factor in on the scoring about 40 percent of the time, which means the under should be priced closer to -150. I'm a big fan of these types of props when a goaltender like Vasilevskiy is the one guarding the net.
Carolina Hurricanes (-160) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 140)
Carolina is 13-2 and there’s no sign of them slowing down, but -160 is a big price to lay on the road against a Kings team that has won seven of their last ten games. Viktor Arvidsson is back in the fold, too. However, the consensus price of + 140 is not something I’m going to jump at. There’s positive expected value there, but based on my experience, I feel it’s best to wait and see who starts for the Kings. Jonathan Quick has looked good this season, but the market still tends to move against the Kings anytime he’s announced as a starter. That might become a thing of the past, but until I’ve got a handle on how the market will behave in these situations, I’m not going to rush into betting against one of the best teams in the NHL.
Update: Cal Petersen will start in goal for the Kings. Frederik Andersen will start for the Hurricanes. I was hoping the line would be closer to + 150, and it isn't, so I'm going to pass on the Kings here.
Minnesota Wild (+ 125) at Florida Panthers (-145)
Theoretically, the Panthers shouldn’t be as good without Aleksander Barkov, but they’re still a better team than the Wild, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the rest of the team pick up the slack while he’s out. With that said, I don’t think the Panthers should be priced at -145. The game line should be priced closer to -135, assuming Sergei Bobrovsky starts in goal. Cam Talbot will start in goal for the Wild, but there’s no value in taking + 125.
Nashville Predators (-125) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 105)
Nashville hasn’t confirmed that Juuse Saros will start in goal, but I can’t really see why he wouldn’t. The Predators have had a couple of days off after their game in Ottawa was postponed. Samuel Montembeault will get the start for the Canadiens, as Jake Allen is still sidelined, and that’s troublesome, but -130 is a very tough price. The Predators do not have the services of Filip Forsberg and I’ve got the Canadiens rated about as low as possible. I would’ve considered a bet at -110, or maybe even -115, but I’m passing on -130. I will, however, consider taking an ugly bet on the Canadiens if David Rittich starts for the Predators.
Pittsburgh Penguins (+ 150) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-170)
I’m probably going to regret this, but according to my model, this game should be priced no higher than -140 in favor of the home team. The Maple Leafs are hot, having won five games in a row and 10 of their last 11, while the Penguins only have three wins in their last 11 games. Pittsburgh has been at full strength for a few games, though, which is something we haven’t been able to say about this team all season.
Pittsburgh hasn’t been winning enough, while the Maple Leafs have been winning too much, and that’s why the game line is what it is. The two teams are not all that different, though, as they’re both top-10 teams by expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. The Penguins have scored about 50 percent of the goals, though, while Toronto has scored around 52.5 percent.
Jack Campbell has been lights out for the Maple Leafs, and therefore, Toronto does have a big edge in goal. I’m comfortable taking the dog here, though. It's a bet that I expect to lose about 58 percent of the time, but the odds suggest that it'll lose 60 percent of the time, and two percent is my threshold for making a full-size bet. Take the Penguins to get a win over the Maple Leafs at + 150 or better.
Pick:
Pittsburgh Penguins + 150
Calgary Flames (-105) at New York Islanders (-115)
Ryan Pulock is out for four to six weeks, and Anders Lee is currently in COVID protocol. Pulock is a big loss, and if Lee can’t play, the Islanders are going to be without two of their best players when they host the Flames in the first game at UBS Arena. I could maybe price this game in favor of the Flames, but I’d like to know who is starting in goal first, and Lee’s status matters to the game line, too.
Update: Anders Lee, Anthony Beauvillier, Adam Pelech and Andy Greene have all been added to the COVID protocol list. Josh Bailey is stuck in Florida in quarantine. The line blew up, with the Flames priced at around -120, but if there are any slow moving shops I would grab -110 or better, if you can. However, I wouldn't recommend chasing the steam.
Boston Bruins (-135) at Philadelphia Flyers (+ 115)
I’m glad I didn’t give the Flyers too much respect last time out, as they were not able to hold a two-goal lead. The Lightning tied the game not once, but twice, and won in overtime 4-3. Kevin Hayes was a surprise scratch on Thursday, which didn’t help the Flyers chances in that game, and it looks like he’s out again on Saturday.
Linus Ullmark will start in goal for the Bruins, while Martin Jones is expected to get the start for the Flyers. They don’t play again until Tuesday when they visit Tampa Bay for a rematch against the Lightning and they probably want to rest Hart for that game. He’s been great this season, but rest is important, and coaches know that. But without Hart, don’t expect to come away with a win here.
According to my model, Boston should be carrying a price tag of around -140, and that’s where the game line is sitting at most shops around the world. There’s very little value in backing the Bruins at -135 with Ullmark in goal.
Detroit Red Wings (-145) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 125)
This game opened with the Red Wings listed at -130, but there was movement overnight and they’re now priced at -145, or even -150. That’s too rich for my blood. Detroit will win the game, but the price isn’t egregious in anyway that warrants making a wager.
St. Louis Blues (+ 100) at Dallas Stars -120)
It doesn’t look like Brayden Schenn will be back in the lineup for the Blues, but he’s apparently making a lot of progress. The Blues looked good in their last game against the Sharks, but maybe the Sharks were just bad. It’s hard to say, but it was probably a little bit of both. It doesn’t really matter, though. The Blues played Ville Husso and got the win, which means they’re probably going to go back to Jordan Binnington, who is rested. I assume the Stars are going to go to Jake Oettinger, as Anton Khudobin didn’t give the team much of a chance to win in Minnesota on Thursday, and Braden Holtby is still listed as day-to-day. The game is priced appropriately, in my opinion, and unless there’s a big chance to the expected lineups, it seems unlikely that I will be taking a side here.
Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 130) at Vegas Golden Knights (-150)
There’s a lot to monitor here. I don’t know who will start in goal for either team. And as of right now, I’m going into this game with the assumption that Shea Theodore will not be back in the Vegas lineup. I also don’t think we’ll see Jonathan Marchessault or Alec Martinez. Elvis Merzlikins getting the start for the Blue Jackets could make them an attractive bet for some, but I don’t think I’ll be taking the dog here. If Theodore plays, though, and the price comes down across the board, I might consider laying the favorite. There’s a lot to figure out between now and then, though.
Chicago Blackhawks (+ 175) at Edmonton Oilers (-200)
Darnell Nurse is going to be out for an extended period, which will probably impact the Oilers in ways that are hard to account for, but Chicago is a mess and Edmonton still deserves to be a big favorite. Kevin Lankinen will start in goal for the Blackhawks, and he will probably face off against Mikko Koskinen, but if the Oilers are smart, they’ll try and ride Stuart Skinner for one more game and see what happens. The young goaltender has been exactly what the Oilers need, and hopefully that leads to more starts so that we can get a better sense of what type of player he will be in the long term.
Update: It doesn't look like Shea Theodore or Alec Martinez will be back, but Max Pacioretty was a surprise participant at practice and even took part in line rushes, so it looks like he will play on Saturday. That was enough for me to talk myself into laying -140, but the consensus price is -150. However, beggars can't be choosers, and I still think the Golden Knights offer some value at -150, but I will only recommend laying a half-size wager at that price.
Pick:
Vegas Golden Knights -150 (half size)
Washington Capitals (-120) at San Jose Sharks (+ 100)
T.J. Oshie could return to the Capitals’ lineup on Saturday, and that could give the team a much-needed boost, as their play has started to slip due to injuries. I think it’s more likely that he plays on Sunday in Seattle, but maybe they rush him back into the lineup. I don’t have a problem betting the Sharks, but the price must be right. It’s not.
The Sharks will probably put forth a better effort than they did on Thursday, because you can only improve on a performance that pathetic. However, even money is a laughable offering considering the uncertainty surrounding Oshie’s status. I probably won’t be taking a side here.
Bet Summary
Early Bets:
Pittsburgh Penguins + 150
Late Adds:
Vegas Golden Knights -150 (half size)
Nico Hischier Under 0.5 Points -115 (DraftKings)