NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 10/16

By Andy MacNeil  (VSiN.com) 

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for our best player prop bets powered by Range Hockey’s Puck Propagator and Follow me on Twitter.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

Market Report Recap for Friday, Oct. 15

It’s been a bit of tough start, but I’ve been here before. It’s cliché, but it’s all about sticking to the process and I’ve been mostly happy with the prices that I have gotten which is all I can control. Oh, and player props are back in the black, too. It’s business as usual, really.

Records 

Game Lines: 1-4, -3.05 units, -56.5 percent ROI

Player Props: 15-11, + 0.65 units, 1.9 percent ROI

Market Report for Saturday, Oct. 16

A 14-game slate is something we haven’t been treated to in a while and there’s a lot to take in. But there’s no need to rush. We’ve still got a full season of hockey ahead of us. With that said, there are a few sides that I have pegged as value bets and of course, some player prop bets, but those will come a little later.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Arizona Coyotes (+ 100) at Buffalo Sabres (-120)

The Sabres are a little banged up after an upset win over the Canadiens on Thursday while the Coyotes are licking their wounds from a blowout loss on that very same night. Don’t anchor your opinion to either of those games. Both teams are bad. I’m going to forget this game is on and you should too.

Player Props:

Jakob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points + 105

Chychrun came to life last season in Arizona and started finding the back of the net at a rate in which he never did before. The team isn't as good this season, though, and he's not even on the first power play unit. The under should be priced closer to -140 according to the Propagator.

New York Islanders (+ 110) at Florida Panthers (-130)

Joe Quenneville and the Panthers ought to thank Barry Trotz and the Islanders. I’m not sure Florida would be where they’re at right now if not for the Islanders embarrassing them back in the bubble. Now they meet again. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’ll have a reason to watch this game as my handicap seems to align very closely with the market.

Player Props:

Aleksander Barkov Over 3.5 Shots + 140 

The Propagator estimates Barkov will tally at least four shots about 50 percent of the time and that makes sense because it's a feat he accomplished in over half of his games last season. In terms of a player going over their shot total, it's the biggest edge on the board at + 140. 

Tampa Bay Lightning (-125) at Washington Capitals (+ 105)

The defending champs need to find themselves and after getting shelled in two straight starts, I must wonder if Andrei Vasilevskiy gets Saturday off. I think Jon Cooper will probably go back to his star goaltender, but he might look to wake his team up and it’s not like -125 is a price that’s impossible to pass up. This will be a fun game to watch, but I doubt I’ll be taking a side here.

Player Props:

Alex Ovechkin Under 0.5 Points + 160(BetMGM)Evgeny Kuznetsov Under 0.5 Points + 110 (BetMGM)

Alex Ovechkin is simply not as good with Evgeny Kuznetsov as he is with Niklas Backstrom and the Propagator is pricing that in. The former should be priced around -140 while the latter should be priced closer to + 140, assuming Vasilevskiy gets the nod. Would the real Vasilevskiy please stand up?

New York Rangers (-110) at Montreal Canadiens (-110)

Montreal and New York are still looking for their first win but only the Rangers have deserved to get one. Through two games, the Canadiens have a 40 percent expected goal share (five-on-five) according to Evolving Hockey and have looked more like a lottery team than the one that went to the Stanley Cup Final. I’d take the Rangers at a underdog price if it gets to that point, as I have them projected to win this game approximately 54 percent of the time, but I don’t think we’ll see the game line move in that direction.

Dallas Stars (+ 145) at Boston Bruins (-165)

Jeremy Swayman starts for the Bruins on Saturday against the Stars, who will likely be without both Jason Robertson and John Klingberg. If that’s the case, the Bruins will be a popular pick today, but -165 doesn’t offer much value based on my estimation. However, since I line this game at -170, it doesn’t look like it will get to a point where I’ll see value in backing the Stars.

Seattle Kraken (-115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-105)

Personally, I don’t put much stock into the Blue Jackets 8-2 win over the Coyotes on opening night. This is a bad hockey team. We still don’t know much about the Kraken but I’m willing to bet -115 that they’re a much better team than Columbus.

Pick:

Seattle Kraken -115

Ottawa Senators (+ 210) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-250)

When I said I didn’t want any part of the Senators on Thursday, I thought Matt Murray would be in the starter’s crease, not on injured reserve. With Anton Forsberg in goal, I still don’t really want any part of the Senators, but he’s a better goaltender than Murray and that puts them in a better spot. What would put them in an even better spot is the return of Brady Tkachuk. A Saturday night game in Toronto is the perfect setting but the player might not be ready. If he is, though, I would probably find myself with at least a small position on the Senators at + 200 (or better).

Chicago Blackhawks (+ 125) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-145)

Pittsburgh deserves full marks for what they’ve done through two games, but the opening price was egregious. Chicago fought for a point in Friday’s overtime loss to the Devils which puts them at a bit of a disadvantage, but Marc-Andre Fleury had the night off. I would’ve been really tempted to take the dog here if the price hadn’t moved so much, but Sidney Crosby could return and if that happens, the line will snap back closer to where it was when it opened. If I make a move on this game, it will likely be closer to puck drop, and it won’t be on the Penguins.

Vancouver Canucks (-120) at Detroit Red Wings (+ 100)

If the Canucks had lost to the Flyers on Friday after leading 4-2 late, I would probably be salty. But beggars can’t be choosers. I needed a win. Jaroslav Halak is the probable starter for the Canucks, and I’m still a fan. However, with Brock Boeser’s return being teased day-after-day, speculation is driving the price up. It also doesn’t help that Alex Nedeljkovic was shelled in his first start, allowing seven goals in an overtime loss to the Lightning.

My guess is that Thomas Greiss will get the nod, and I’m probably not the only bettor that’s leaning that way. I do think it’s likely that we see Boeser tonight, too, given that he has skated with his teammates several times, but I could get burned. Teams are 0-4 on the second half of back-to-backs so far thus season, let’s see if the Canucks can buck that trend. Don’t chase the price on this one, though. There’s a bit of uncertainty around the starting rosters and starting goalies.

Pick:

Vancouver Canucks -120

Carolina Hurricanes (-110) at Nashville Predators ( -110)

A season ago, I would’ve jumped all over the Hurricanes at -110 in Nashville, but now not so much. Carolina is still a good team, while Nashville is not, but after a bunch of questionable off-season moves, I want to see more than one good performance from the Hurricanes before I buy in.

St. Louis Blues (+ 130) at Colorado Avalanche (-150)

Nathan MacKinnnon is out for at least one more game and captain Gabriel Landeskog is serving a suspension. This, in addition to injuries to Devon Toews and Valeri Nichushkin. The team also sent Alex Newhook to the minors. The Blues have a bit of a new look, with Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich added to the roster of the summer, but it remains to be seen whether the on-ice product is going to be all that much improved. There’s been quite the shift in the odds overnight, and the road team seems to be in a much more favorable position than they were before. However, if the line continues to trend toward the Blues, I’ll lay the favorite at -140 (or better).

Calgary Flames (+ 125) at Edmonton Oilers (-145)

Fans will be back at Rogers Place to take in the Battle of Alberta and the atmosphere should resemble that of a playoff game. I won’t be laying the favorite here, nor I will I be taking the dog, unless the price climbs north of + 130, but right now it’s sitting at + 125 and I think that’s a fair line.

Winnipeg Jets (-135) at San Jose Sharks (+ 115)

Winnipeg fell short against the Ducks on Wednesday but now they’ll look to get on track with a win over the Sharks, who no longer have their leading scorer (Evander Kane) on the roster. Kane may have been a distraction, but the simple fact is that he produced, and the Sharks will have a hard time replacing him. Mark Scheifele is eligible to return after serving his suspension and the Jets should win this game approximately 59 percent of the time. The price moved from -125 to -135 early Saturday but there is still a bit of value to be had. However, I’m not sure the rest of the market will feel that way.

Pick:

Winnipeg Jets -135

Minnesota Wild (-115) at Los Angeles Kings (-105)

Minnesota is coming into Los Angeles after a big win over the Anaheim Ducks. The Wild scored in the dying seconds to take a 2-1 lead after trailing early. Cam Talbot picked up the win in goal, so it seems likely that backup Kaapo Kahkonen will start. The Kings looked good in their win over the Golden Knights, but we don’t know who is going to start in goal. It could be Jonathan Quick, and in that case, the line would be on the move. This game is basically a coin flip so there’s really no value in betting either side here unless the market shows a lot of love one side or the other.

Summary

Early Bets:

Winnipeg Jets -135

Vancouver Canucks -120

Seattle Kraken -115

Jakob Chychrun Under 0.5 Points + 105 (DraftKings)

Aleksander Barkov Over 3.5 Shots + 140 (DraftKings)

Alex Ovechkin Under 0.5 Points + 160 (BetMGM)

Evgeny Kuznetsov Under 0.5 Points + 110 (BetMGM)

Nick Suzuki Under 0.5 Points + 125 (BetMGM)

Late Adds:

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