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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/9

May 9, 2022 09:36 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Sunday, May 8th

There was no market report on Sunday.

Record: 111-101, + 0.25 units, 0.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, May 9th

There are four games on Saturday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Florida Panthers (-175) at Washington Capitals (+ 145)

The betting market has adjusted the game line quite a bit here, as the Capitals are priced 25 cents shorter heading into Game 4 than they were heading into Game 3. I agree with the move, but it’s unfortunate. Now I can’t justify taking the dog, and therefore, it’s probably going to take a dominant Panthers win to shift the game odds back to a place where they offer value. Of course, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen, as I have the Capitals to win the series at 3/1 odds. Outside of the final scores, the two teams have generated roughly the same number of shots and scoring chances through the first three games, which is either an indictment on the Panthers, or a compliment to the Capitals. Either way, this series is a lot closer than people predicted, and while it would be silly to count the Panthers out, they appear to be heading in the direction that so many great regular season teams have gone in the past.

Notes: It has not yet been determined whether forward Tom Wilson will be in the Capitals’ lineup.

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