NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/9

May 9, 2022 09:36 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report for Sunday, May 8th

There was no market report on Sunday.

Record: 111-101, + 0.25 units, 0.1 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, May 9th

There are four games on Saturday. Let’s look at things from a betting perspective.

Florida Panthers (-175) at Washington Capitals (+ 145)

The betting market has adjusted the game line quite a bit here, as the Capitals are priced 25 cents shorter heading into Game 4 than they were heading into Game 3. I agree with the move, but it’s unfortunate. Now I can’t justify taking the dog, and therefore, it’s probably going to take a dominant Panthers win to shift the game odds back to a place where they offer value. Of course, I’m hoping that doesn’t happen, as I have the Capitals to win the series at 3/1 odds. Outside of the final scores, the two teams have generated roughly the same number of shots and scoring chances through the first three games, which is either an indictment on the Panthers, or a compliment to the Capitals. Either way, this series is a lot closer than people predicted, and while it would be silly to count the Panthers out, they appear to be heading in the direction that so many great regular season teams have gone in the past.

Notes: It has not yet been determined whether forward Tom Wilson will be in the Capitals’ lineup.

Colorado Avalanche (-255) at Nashville Predators (+ 205)

The Colorado Avalanche will aim to sweep the Nashville Predators on Monday, as they take a 3-0 series lead into Game 4. Colorado has outscored the Predators 16-6 so far in the series, and their expected goals for percentage sits at around 69 percent. They’ve owned 66 percent of the shot attempts, and although I don’t expect the Predators to give up and surrender, winning four games in a row versus the Avalanche is almost an impossible task. Colorado will likely win Game 4, but I don’t believe there’s any value in laying -255.

New York Rangers (-105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-115)

During the regular season, the Rangers and Penguins combined for six goals in just one of four games. So far in this series, the two teams have combined for at least seven goals in each of the three games. It would be easy to point to the fact that the Penguins are rolling with third stringer Louis Domingue as the cause, but Igor Shesterkin’s play has been underwhelming since the likely Vezina Trophy put on a show in the triple overtime game. Shesterkin will likely bounce back, but the fact that he’s been posted a .870 save percentage and has been pulled three times in his last seven road games dating back to the regular season is not at all encouraging. Penguins’ starting goaltender Tristan Jarry has been skating and taking shots, and the team has not yet ruled out the possibility that he will appear in the series. My model estimates that this is a 50-50 game, and therefore, there’s no value bet to be made on either side.

Calgary Flames (-155) at Dallas Stars (+ 135)

This has been a frustrating series. The Flames have owned nearly 60 percent of the shot attempts, and about 54 percent of the expected goals, but they’ve only scored 34 percent of the goals in three games. Jake Oettinger has been a brick wall, but I haven’t ruled out the possibility that he sold his soul prior to the start of this series. Calgary is the better team by a mile, and something has got to give. I was going to list the Flames as a pick for today, but unfortunately the moneyline odds moved from -160 to -175 while I was writing the report. I would not recommend a bet on the Flames at that price.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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