NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/23

May 23, 2022 09:56 AM

Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.

Market Report Recap for Sunday, May 22nd

The Flames could have gone into Game 3 up 2-0 in the series, but they let Game 2 slip away. After a pathetic showing in Game 3, they’re down 2-1 in the series their top players have disappeared. Player prop bets went 1-1 for a very tiny profit, as Johnny Gaudreau went over 3.5 shots at + 110 and Blake Coleman was one short of going over 2.5 at + 120.

Record: 112-109, + -5.40 units, -2.4 percent ROI

Market Report for Monday, May 23rd

Lets’ look at things from a betting perspective.

Florida Panthers (+ 105) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-125)

If Connor McDavid is the MVP of the playoffs (he is), Andrei Vasilevskiy is the runner up after posting a .971 save percentage in three games versus the Florida Panthers. He’s faced at least 34 shots in in all three contests, but he’s held the Panthers to just one goal per game and he’s virtually unbeatable in close-out games. In his last nine attempts to close out a series, he’s allowed just eight goals and has registered five shutouts, but the market has caught up to that trend. The Panthers closed as a -120 favorite in Game 3, but the Lightning are listed at -125 in Game 4. Florida’s desperate, but they’re facing a nearly impossible task. This is the first back-to-back situation of the playoffs, though, which could lead to some wackiness, but I certainly have any interest in betting against Vasilevskiy anymore in this series, and certainly not in Game 4.

There are some player prop bets that I like, though. The Lightning’s second forward line has been good in this series, and I’m betting that they’ll continue to generate shots. Nick Paul seems to be finding his game as a member of the Lightning. He’s gone over 2.5 shots in four straight games, and six out of a ten games overall. He has 11 shots in three games versus the Panthers. His linemate, Ondrej Palat, has seven shots in three games versus Florida, and has gone over 1.5 shots on goal in five of his last eight games. And on the Florida side, I’m betting that Aleksandar Barkov is going to leave everything on the ice in Game 4. He doesn’t have a goal in the series, but he’s got 14 shots on goal in three games and has gone over 3.5 shots in six out 10 playoff games. Barkov registered six shots on Sunday.

Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Nicholas Paul Over 2.5 Shots + 120

Ondrej Palat Over 1.5 Shots -115

Aleksandar Barkov Over 3.5 Shots + 125

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