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NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/2

May 2, 2022 06:55 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Regular Season Recap

This past season was the first that I gave out picks publicly. It’s the wasn’t a bad season, by any means, but it’s my worst season on record. I went 109-93 betting on sides and totals for a profit of 6.22 units. Player props were a different story, as Range Hockey’s Propagator never really got off the ground, and as a result, I’m carrying a red figure into the playoffs after going 115-113 for -11.1 units. I haven’t given a player prop bet since the turn of the calendar, but I’m much more confident in my ability to find good prop bets in the playoffs, so I'll try to get that figure into the black.

Market Report for Monday, May 2nd

The field is set at 16 teams as the opening round starts on Monday. The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs will run until June 30th, at the latest, so I hope you’re all ready for the grind.

Read the full first-round preview here.

Boston Bruins (+ 105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-120)

Frederik Andersen is not going to start for the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1, but we don’t know whether Antti Raanta or Pytor Kochetkov will be his replacement. Either way, the Hurricanes shouldn’t be a favorite in the series opener on Monday. I’ve already bet on the Bruins to win the series, and according to my model, they should win this game about 52.4 percent of the time, which means their odds should be closer to -110. Boston is coming into the playoffs having been a stronger team on offense over the past couple of months, and they’ve been just as good as, if not better than, Carolina on defense. Andersen was a big reason why the Hurricanes led the league in goals against per 60 minutes for much of the season, and now that he’s injured, things have shifted toward Boston in that regard. There’s value betting on Boston to win the game straight up at even money.

Pick:

Boston Bruins + 105

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