NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/2

May 2, 2022 06:55 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge. Let’s look at each series from a betting perspective.

All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey

Regular Season Recap

This past season was the first that I gave out picks publicly. It’s the wasn’t a bad season, by any means, but it’s my worst season on record. I went 109-93 betting on sides and totals for a profit of 6.22 units. Player props were a different story, as Range Hockey’s Propagator never really got off the ground, and as a result, I’m carrying a red figure into the playoffs after going 115-113 for -11.1 units. I haven’t given a player prop bet since the turn of the calendar, but I’m much more confident in my ability to find good prop bets in the playoffs, so I'll try to get that figure into the black.

Market Report for Monday, May 2nd

The field is set at 16 teams as the opening round starts on Monday. The 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs will run until June 30th, at the latest, so I hope you’re all ready for the grind.

Read the full first-round preview here.

Boston Bruins (+ 105) at Carolina Hurricanes (-120)

Frederik Andersen is not going to start for the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1, but we don’t know whether Antti Raanta or Pytor Kochetkov will be his replacement. Either way, the Hurricanes shouldn’t be a favorite in the series opener on Monday. I’ve already bet on the Bruins to win the series, and according to my model, they should win this game about 52.4 percent of the time, which means their odds should be closer to -110. Boston is coming into the playoffs having been a stronger team on offense over the past couple of months, and they’ve been just as good as, if not better than, Carolina on defense. Andersen was a big reason why the Hurricanes led the league in goals against per 60 minutes for much of the season, and now that he’s injured, things have shifted toward Boston in that regard. There’s value betting on Boston to win the game straight up at even money.

Pick:

Boston Bruins + 105

Tampa Bay Lightning (+ 110) at Toronto Maple Leafs (-130)

The Toronto Maple Leafs are loaded with talent, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them upset the Tampa Bay Lightning in opening round, but my model only gives them a 45 percent chance of doing so, and it also estimates that their chances of winning Game 1 are around 50 percent. Toronto is going to have to outplay Tampa Bay, which is easier said than done, because if the two starting goaltenders, Jack Campbell and Andrei Vasilevskiy, see similar work loads, the latter is likely going to lead his team to victory. The Lightning’s underlying numbers have looked pedestrian at times, and this series should teach us a lot about them, and the Maple Leafs. This should be a close series, but I’m not going to pass up on betting the two-time Stanley Cup champions when there is value at + 110.

Pick:

Tampa Bay Lightning + 110

St. Louis Blues (+ 120) at Minnesota Wild (-140)

I wasn’t surprised to see that the Wild were listed at -150 at DraftKings Sportsbook, but I was surprised to see that some forecasters had the Wild favored by as much as 75 percent. I believe this is a 50-50 matchup, and I feel very good about taking the dog to win the series at + 130 and to win the game at + 115. St. Louis and Minnesota are two of the hottest teams in the league, and neither team should run away with this series. Take the Blues to win Game 1 at + 115.

Pick:

St. Louis Blues + 115

Los Angeles Kings (+ 170) at Edmonton Oilers (-190)

The market has done a good job of pricing this series, and Game 1, and therefore, I don’t have much interest in either, at least from a betting perspective. There could end up being value on the Kings at some point in this series, and maybe even in Game 1 if the odds move enough, but the game lines have been up at most shops for a day or two now and not much has changed.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Boston Bruins + 105

Tampa Bay Lightning + 110

St. Louis Blues + 115

Player Prop Bets:

There are no recommended player prop bets currently, but I may add some later in the day.

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