NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 4/4

April 3, 2022 08:37 PM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, April 3rd

Sunday’s only recommended bet was a small wager on the Capitals at -125 and it never really stood a chance. Minnesota jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and won the game 5-1.

Record:

101-87, + 6.47 units, 3.3 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, April 4th

There are just four games scheduled for Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Boston Bruins (-230) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 195)

Columbus defenceman Zach Werenski did not travel with the team on their two-game road trip, but now that the Blue Jackets are back home, it’s unclear whether he will suit up on Monday against the Bruins. Boston handed the Blue Jackets their sixth loss in a row on Saturday by a score of 5-2. It was their 13th loss in their last 18 games, and they don’t stand much of a chance of winning this rematch with the Bruins. Since Feb. 22nd, the Blue Jackets have allowed 3.95 goals per 60 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick. Only two teams have been worse in that regard, and to make matters worse, their offense has fallen off big time. Columbus ranked 11th in goals per 60 minutes through their first 49 games, but during this 18-game stretch, they grade out as the third worst in that category. Boston should win this game upwards of 70 percent of the time, but this is the first half of a back-to-back (the Bruins are in Detroit on Tuesday) and Linus Ullmark is expected to start in goal. Ullmark is a big step down from Jeremy Swayman, and Werenski would move the needle quite a bit, too. Therefore, I’m going to wait and see how things play out before I decide whether I want to bet on the Bruins to cover the puck line again or not.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+ 110) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-130)

The Maple Leafs have won seven of their last nine games, but they’ll be put to the test over the next four days, as they will visit Tampa Bay, Florida and Dallas. The Stars are a formidable opponent, but the Lightning and Panthers are. Jack Campbell and Erik Kallgren will likely split the games, and there’s no easy way to divvy up the starting duties. However, the Leafs do have wins over both teams already this season, and I’m going to assume that Campbell starts on Monday because the Lightning are one of the teams that they are competing with in the standings. Both teams have 83 and there’s a decent chance that they will meet in the first round of the playoffs. This will be Tampa Bay’s third game in four days, and according to my model, they should be priced around -120 if Andrei Vasilevskiy is in goal.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 320) at St. Louis Blues (-380)

This will be the sixth game in nine days for the Coyotes, who earned an overtime victory over the Blackhawks in Chicago on Sunday. Arizona has been decimated by injuries, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t win another game this season. Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me if they did, either, but without Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, Jacob Chychrun, Nick Ritchie and Christian Fischer, there isn’t much hope for the team. The Blues aren’t well-rested, though, and they aren’t healthy, either. Jordan Kyrou is regarded as day-to-day due to an illness, and Tyler Bozak and Torey Krug are listed as week-to-week. I don’t want anything to do with the Coyotes, but I certainly wouldn’t recommend laying -380 or worse on the Blues.

Calgary Flames (-170) at Los Angeles Kings (+ 150)

Calgary lost their last three games at the Saddledome, so the team is probably happy to get out on the road and payback the Kings with a win in Los Angeles. The Kings got past the Flames in a shootout last week, and the gap between the two teams in the standings has closed. Calgary has games in hand, but they no longer have a stranglehold on the top spot in the Pacific Division thanks to the Kings and their successful road trip through Western Canada. Calgary might also be down a couple of regulars in Oliver Kylington and Calle Jarnkrok, but both players are listed as day-to-day and shouldn’t be ruled out. My model suggests that oddsmakers have done a good job of pricing this game, assuming Jonathan Quick and Jacob Markstrom are the starting goaltenders.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

 

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