NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 4/18

April 18, 2022 08:08 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, April 17th

I bet on the Blues early thinking that there was a decent chance David Rittich would be in goal for the Predators, but he wasn’t, and I regretted making the bet when I did as soon as Juuse Saros was announced as the starting goaltender. I was filled with even more regret when the Predators opened the scoring early in the first period, but it didn’t matter, as the Blues tied the game before the end of the first frame and went on to pot seven more goals in the second period. St. Louis won the game 8-3. I might not have bet the Blues if I had known that Saros would be in goal again, or I might have taken a smaller position, and it ended up being one of the better bets I’ve made in a several days. Saros having one of his worst games of the season was a lucky break.

Record:

107-92, + 5.52 units, 2.7 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, April 18th

There are six games scheduled for Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Calgary Flames (-280) at Chicago Blackhawks (+ 240)

The Flames put on a show in Calgary on Saturday night, scoring nine unanswered goals after the Coyotes opened the scoring early in the first period. Arizona would not score again, and the Flames picked up their sixth win in their last seven games by a score of 9-1. Calgary will play five of their last seven games away from the Saddledome starting on Monday in Chicago. The Flames will travel to Nashville to play the Predators on Tuesday, which means that goaltenders Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar will split starting duties over the next couple of days. Calgary’s chances of winning a given game are much better when Markstrom is in goal, but Vladar has provided them with adequate goaltending this season, albeit in a small sample size, and the team will still be in a good position to defeat the Blackhawks even if he’s in the crease. Kevin Lankinen has assumed the position as the Blackhawks’ starting goaltender since Marc-Andre Fleury was traded to Minnesota, and he’s been struggling, to say the least. According to Evolving Hockey, Lankinen allowed approximately 13 goals above expected leading up to the trade deadline, a span of 17 games. He’s almost doubled that total, allowing 10 more goals above expected, since he took over the starting job. Chicago has lost nine of their last 10 games, and they’ve allowed four goals or more in eight of those contests. I might have some interest in backing the Flames, but I’m going to wait until they decide on a starting goaltender.

Update: The Flames have been perfect as heavy favorites on the road this season, and they've covered the puck line in every game that they've gone into with moneyline odds of -175 or higher. I can justify laying -130 on the Flames to cover the puck line now that Jacob Markstrom is confirmed as the starting goaltender

Notes: Chicago forward Kirby Dach missed Saturday’s game due to a shoulder sprain and he is questionable heading into Monday’s game against Calgary.

Pick: 

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, -130

Washington Capitals (+ 175) at Colorado Avalanche (-200)

Washington has shown that they can tear through weaker teams on many occasions, but as was the case in Toronto last Thursday, things can get ugly when they’re up against tougher competition. Colorado is a tough team to play against, especially in their own barn, and they’ve managed to win nine in a row without two out of their top three scorers, Nazem Kadri and Gabriel Landeskog. Washington’s offense has been good lately, but their goaltending has been trending in the wrong direction. This is the fourth game in six days for Colorado, and I’m not interested in laying -200, but sportsbooks are going to have to jack up the Capitals’ moneyline odds before I’ll consider taking them.

Notes: Washington defenceman Dmitry Orlov is questionable heading into Monday's contest. Colorado forward Kadri is apparently targeting a return to the lineup this week.

New Jersey Devils (+ 255) at Vegas Golden Knights (-310)

Due to personal reasons, Robin Lehner was not able to finish the Golden Knights’ road trip through Western Canada and it’s unclear whether he will be available to play on Monday.  Vegas pulled out a big win against the Flames, but they followed it up by getting shutout by the Edmonton Oilers. Time is running out and they can’t afford to lose to the Devils. New Jersey has lost 12 of their last 16 games and their best player, Jack Hughes, is out for the remainder of the season. They don’t have an NHL-caliber goaltender, either. Logan Thompson has been decent this season, but I can’t justify laying -310 on Vegas. Part of me hopes that the Golden Knights make the playoffs, because it will make the Western Conference a lot more interesting, but I’m holding a 50-1 ticket on the Calgary Flames to win the Stanley Cup and their path will be easier if Vegas doesn’t qualify.

Carolina Hurricanes (-400) at Arizona Coyotes (+ 330)

Frederick Andersen is sidelined with a lower-body injury and, according to reports, the team is awaiting the results of an MRI. Luckily, the Hurricanes have a solid replacement in Antti Raanta, assuming he can stay healthy, but Andersen is a likely Vezina Trophy candidate and it’s a huge loss. Forward Jordan Staal is also considered day-to-day after a hard hit by Avalanche defenceman Cale Makar. Carolina will probably destroy the Coyotes on Monday, as just about every other team has over the last few weeks, but latter started strong in Calgary on Saturday and losing 9-1 was probably rock bottom. Carolina still has a lot to play for, though. They hold a tie breaker over the Rangers, but that won’t matter if New York passes them. Both teams are sitting with 104 points, but the Hurricanes have two more regulation wins. The Coyotes have lost 13 of their last 15, and they’ve scored two or fewer goals in 12 of those games. As a result, their opponents have covered the puck line a whopping 80 percent of the time during that stretch. Carolina will almost certainly pick up a win on Monday, but the line has moved a lot since it opened at -355, and my model estimates that the game is now priced correctly. I won’t be making a pre-game bet, but I will be looking for opportunities to jump in on the Hurricanes in-game.

Dallas Stars (-115) at Vancouver Canucks (-105)

With Brock Boeser listed as day-to-day, and Bo Horvat regarded as week-to-week, the Canucks will be in tough against the Dallas Stars on Monday. Vancouver’s playoff hopes are on life support, and a loss to the Stars at home would put them one step closer to being officially eliminated from Stanley Cup contention. I’m not particularly high on the Stars, but according to my model, if Boeser is unable to suit up, the Stars should be priced around -130, and once I know for sure, I might choose to lay the favorite. In the meantime, I’m going to hang back and hope that the game line doesn’t move before that happens.

Bet Summary:

Late Adds:

Calgary Flames Puck Line -1.5, -130

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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