NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 3/7

March 7, 2022 09:28 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, March 6th

There were no recommended bets on Sunday.

Record:

85-73, + 2.8 units, 1.7 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, March 7th

There are five games scheduled for Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Los Angeles Kings (+ 175) at Boston Bruins (-200)

The Kings shutout the Sabres by a score of 3-0 in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon, and now they’re in Boston to take on the Bruins. Los Angeles will be without one of their top producers, though, as Viktor Arvidsson is out day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Cal Petersen was in goal on Sunday, which means the Kings will almost certainly go with Jonathan Quick on Monday. This is a tough spot for the Kings, but the Bruins are priced too high given that there is a chance Linus Ullmark could get the start in goal. The Bruins have won seven of their last eight games, and according to my model, they should be priced around -220 if Jeremy Swayman is in goal. In other words, the Bruins are a value bet at -200, but not if Ullmark gets the nod. I won’t be laying the favorite until there’s more information, and I’m fully aware that the market might not be willing to be as patient as I am.

Update: Linus Ullmark will start in goal for the Bruins. Matt Grzelyck will not play on Monday.

Florida Panthers (-300) at Buffalo Sabres (+ 250)

Florida has been a lot better on the road over the past couple of months than they were in first half of the season, and they’ve really turned up the heat on their opponents as of late. Over their last eight games, the Panthers have owned approximately 63 percent of the expected goals, and if oddsmakers keep pricing them short, I’m going to be there to take advantage of it. The Sabres were shutout on Sunday, but the biggest loss they suffered came in the form of an injury to forward Alex Tuch, who will likely not suit up on Monday when the team hosts the Panthers. Now, the Panthers will play Pittsburgh on Tuesday, and Spencer Knight will probably be in goal on Monday in Buffalo. Sergei Bobrovsky would give the Panthers a better chance of winning (and covering the puck line) but according to my model, this game has still been priced egregiously. Florida should win this game over 80 percent of the time.

Update: Spencer Knight at Craig Anderson will be the starting goaltenders. Alex Tuch surprisingly took part in the team's optional skate this morning and will be a game-time decision.

Pick:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -130

Toronto Maple Leafs (-210) at Columbus Blue Jackets (+ 180)

Toronto has dropped their last two games to the Sabres and Canucks, and they’ve lost seven out of 13 games since the All-Star break. Their next four games are against Columbus, Seattle, Arizona and Buffalo, and fans will be out for blood if they don’t win all four in dominant fashion. It’s going to be an interesting week for the Maple Leafs, as the team is likely feeling the pressure. Petr Mrazek will start in goal for Toronto, as the Maple Leafs, but it’s unclear who will start for the Blue Jackets. Elvis Merzlikins played back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, which would make this his third start in four days, so Columbus could turn to J-F Berube on Monday.

Update: Elvis Merzlikins will start in goal for the Blue Jackets.

Colorado Avalanche (-200) at New York Islanders (+ 175)

Mathew Barzal hasn’t played since Feb. 26th, and although he was regarded as a game-time decision heading into Saturday’s game, he did not end up taking warmups and was ultimately listed as a scratch. There’s a chance that he could return to the lineup in time for Monday’s rematch with Colorado. Anders Lee also missed Saturday’s game, but that was due to personal reasons, and it’s unclear whether he will be ready to return on Monday. The Islanders are an offensively challenged team, and if both Barzal and Lee are out, I will consider betting on the Avalanche, who are the league’s best offensive team outside of the Florida Panthers.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 165) at Calgary Flames (-185)

The Battle of Alberta resumes on Monday, as the Oilers are in Calgary to take on the Flames. Several Oilers players are dealing with injury and illness, and it’s unclear what their lineup will look like. Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi are still listed week-to-week, and defenders Evan Bouchard and Tyson Barrie are both listed day-to-day. Mikko Koskinen will start in goal for the Oilers. Calgary is coming off a huge 4-3 overtime win over the Avalanche in Colorado, and while they probably let loose a little bit following that victory, the team shouldn’t have any issue getting up for their biggest rival. It also helps that backup goaltender Dan Vladar was in goal on Saturday in Colorado, as that means Jacob Markstrom is rested heading into Monday’s game against the Oilers. The Flames will play the Capitals in Calgary on Tuesday, so we’ll likely see Vladar get another start, but I would be surprised if Markstrom isn’t the one guarding the cage against the Oilers on Monday, and as a result, I felt comfortable making a small wager on the Flames to win the game.

Pick:

Calgary Flames -185 (half size)

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

Florida Panthers Puck Line -1.5, -130

Calgary Flames -185 (half size)

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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