NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 3/28

March 28, 2022 09:16 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, March 27th

The Lightning took care of the Islanders, winning 4-1 on Sunday, but the Avalanche failed to get the job done in Minnesota. Colorado was the better team, owning 54 percent share of shot attempts and 58 percent share of expected goals, but they blew a late 2-1 lead and lost in overtime while shorthanded.

Record:

99-83, + 8.35 units, 4.4 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, March 28th

There are five games scheduled for Monday.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Carolina Hurricanes (-130) at Washington Capitals (+ 110)

The Capitals have won nine of 12 games, but their last few games at home have been rough and this will be their third game in four days. It’s unclear who will start in goal for the Capitals, but I’m assuming it’s going to be Vitek Vanecek, who has a .916 save percentage and a 3.45 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected) on the season, because the team doesn’t play again until April 3rd. The Hurricanes have been struggling, particularly on offense, but they still have strong peripherals. Carolina is in action again on Tuesday in Tampa Bay, though, and they haven’t announced their starting goaltenders. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta give the team a lift, but Andersen gives them the best chance to win a given game. However, my model prices the Hurricanes around -120 with Andersen in goal, and there might be a little bit of value on the home dog if the backup starts instead.

Vancouver Canucks (+ 110) at St. Louis Blues (-130)

Losing nine of 12 games doesn’t always mean that a team is playing bad, but in the case of the Blues, it does. According to Evolving Hockey, in eight of their last 12 games, the Blues’ share of expected goals has been 40 percent or less. My model is down on this team, but not enough that I can justify taking the Canucks at + 110. Vancouver has lost six of their last nine games and their offense has cooled off a bit. This is Vancouver’s fourth game in six days, and the two teams will meet up again on March 30th to complete the home-and-home series.

Notes: Torey Krug and Tyler Bozak will not be in the Blues’ lineup due to injury. Jordan Binnington and Thatcher Demko are the expected starters.

Buffalo Sabres (+ 130) at Chicago Blackhawks (-150)

Buffalo didn’t play well in New York on Sunday, but they still managed to get the game into overtime thanks in large part to Alex Georgiev being in the Rangers’ crease. They’ll face off against another team with sub-par goaltending on Monday when they take on the Blackhawks in Chicago. Kevin Lankinen is now the guy in Chicago, at least for the time being, and the Blackhawks should only be priced around -155, according to my model. Chicago is a better team than the Sabres, and the latter is tried, making it more likely that they win on home ice, but I wouldn’t recommend laying the favorite.

Arizona Coyotes (+ 320) at Edmonton Oilers (-380)

Edmonton should be able to bounce back after Saturday’s wild 9-5 loss in Calgary, but with an implied win rate of about 80 percent, my model doesn’t see any value in laying the favorite. According to my model, the Oilers should be priced around -335 meaning that they should win the game approximately 77 percent of the time.

Seattle Kraken (+ 190) at Los Angeles Kings (-220)

Los Angeles has been struggling for a while now due to injuries, but they are coming off a 4-2 win over Seattle on Saturday. The two teams will meet up once again on Monday in Los Angeles. The Kings are in better shape now that Viktor Arvidsson is back in the lineup, but they’re still missing Drew Doughty. It’s unclear who the starting goaltenders will be, but Philipp Grubauer and Jonathan Quick are the likely candidates. According to my model, the Kings should be priced around -215.

Notes: Jaden Schwartz is listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury.

Bet Summary:

Early Bets:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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