NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 3/21

March 21, 2022 10:21 AM
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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets.

All game lines via VSiN NHL Odds Page

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Market Report Recap for Sunday, March 20th

There were no recommended bets on Sunday.

Record:

94-79, + 6.77units, 3.8 percent ROI

Note: Player prop bets (if any) can be found by scrolling to the bottom of the report.

Market Report for Monday, March 21st

It’s traded deadline day in the NHL and there are just four games scheduled.

Let’s look at things from a betting perspective:

Boston Bruins (-230) at Montreal Canadiens (+ 195)

The Bruins added 28-year-old Hampus Lindholm via trade on Saturday, but the six-foot-four defender won’t be in the lineup when the team travels to Montreal on Monday. Patrice Bergeron will also miss his third game in a row due to an arm infection. Linus Ullmark will start in goal for the Bruins, and according to my model, there isn’t any value betting on the road team. The Canadiens did deal away Ben Chariot, and Brendan Gallagher is out with an injury, but the Canadiens lineup is a lot stronger now than it was for most of the season. They’re not a good hockey team, by any means, but my model suggests that -230 is a fair price.

Vegas Golden Knights (+ 150) at Minnesota Wild (-170)

Betting against the Vegas Golden Knights in their last two games proved to be costly. The team picked up wins over the Panthers and Kings and I won’t be continuing that trend on Monday. Vegas is without Mark Stone, Reilly Smith and Robin Lehner, and Max Pacioretty was just placed on injured reserve. Jack Eichel’s injury was not serious, and he didn’t end up missing any games, but with how the team has played in the absence of Stone and Pacioretty, I don’t think we should expect Eichel to be able to carry them, especially without Lehner in goal. Minnesota and Vegas are both fighting for a playoff spot, and the Wild made a big splash on Monday by acquiring Marc-Andre Fleury from the Chicago Blackhawks. Goaltending had become the team’s weakness and adding Fleury could fix it. I don’t believe the Wild are a particularly strong team, though, and I think it’s safe to assume that Fleury will not be in the lineup on Monday when his former team comes to town. My model prices the Wild at around -160 assuming the starting goaltenders are Cam Talbot and Laurent Brossoit.

Edmonton Oilers (+ 180) at Colorado Avalanche (-200)

The Oilers have rattled off five wins in a row, but three of those wins came against New Jersey, Buffalo and Detroit. The other two came against the Lightning (who started Brian Elliott) and the Capitals (who played the night before in Calgary). In other words, it’s nothing to get excited about. The team did something similar when Jay Woodcroft took over as head coach and fizzled out when their schedule became tougher. Edmonton ranks ninth in expected goals according to Evolving Hockey, and if they had a better goaltender, it would be a lot easier to back them in these situations. They’re still without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and it’s unclear who they’ll start in goal. Mikko Koskinen has been fine, but he’s a bad goaltender at the end of the day, and so is Mike Smith. Colorado is missing captain Gabriel Landeskog, which does reduce their chances of winning a given game, but they should still be a sizeable favorite in this game. The Avalanche struggled, winning one of five games between March 3rd and March 10th, but they’ve rattled off three wins in a row since then. If Darcy Kuemper starts, my model prices the Avalanche at around -220, so I might take a position on the home team if that ends up being the case.

Pick: 
 
Colorado Avalanche -180

Nashville Predators (-170) at Anaheim Ducks (+ 150)

This is the first game of a back-to-back for the Predators and it’s unclear who will start in goal. The Ducks roster is depleted due to trades and injuries, and they could be active on the trade front on Monday. Ryan Getzlaf and Jakob Silfverberg are on injured reserve, and Rickard Rakell is listed as day-to-day. Rakell has been among the most talked about names as far as trade rumours go. The Ducks have lost six games in a row, and the Predators will likely extend their losing streak to seven games on Monday, but since my model estimates that Nashville will win the game approximately 63 percent (-170) of the time, it doesn’t look like there’s any bargain to be had here. Laying the favorite at -160 would have been a value bet, but since neither team has confirmed their starting goaltender, I didn’t feel comfortable taking a position. David Rittich could end up getting the start for Nashville, and if that’s the case, I’ll be happy that I skipped this one.

Bet Summary:

Late Adds:

Colorado Avalanche -180

Player Prop Bets:

Record: 115-113, -11.1 units, -4.11 percent ROI

There are no recommended player prop bets currently.

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